[mikl_plkcc]

Board 10:

Bid 4♥ and lost 4 top tricks immediately (-4.88 IMP) I upgraded my 14 to 15 because I was at 4th seat holding AAKK and 4333 not wanting to open 1♣, my partner upgraded his 9 to 10 because of his honour sequence and the extra 10s. Who's fault? Most ended up 1NT, 2♥ or 2NT.

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Board 16:

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6♥ was cold, and one table even bid and made 7♥. We got -6.32 IMP. My partner didn't know how to show his hand after the preempt. What is the correct bid?

Board 25:

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I thought such bidding would get me a positive, but every table bid a slam and 2 tables end up making 7♥. As the missing K was onside, all of 7 major and 7NT contracts were made. Is a 7-level contract a good idea here? Also, how would you bid this hand, assuming no interference?

[mike777]

Hand evaluation not a bidding system issue.

There are some wonderful books on hand evaluation out there. Please read them
Preparation brings good luck.

[smerriman]

1) 4333 is the worst possible shape and a reason to downgrade, not upgrade.

2) Double might be correct - a lot of bidding contest answers seem to involve doubling then pulling back to partner's suit as showing a better-than-invite raise, which I hadn't considered at the time. But I would have bid 4♠ myself just to show the support immediately, South has a huge hand with Axx in the preemptor's suit.

3) You definitely don't want to be in grand on a finesse in this specific case. But you have no idea whether the best contract is small or grand slam, and in hearts, spades, and no trump, so why the rush to 6♠? 3♥ seems an easy start; in this case, South will raise, and then you can find out about the ♠AK via Blackwood.

PS - I don't know much, don't take my answers as definitive advice

[AL78]

My 2p's worth:

Board 10: A 4333 8 loser hand is not worth an upgrade. A 9 count with a poor quality primary suit and Q-doubleton which may be useless is not worth an upgrade. Both players upgraded hands that were not worth upgrading and they ended up too high.

Board 16: Would 4m instead of X be a cue here, if so I would do that, else bid 4♠ as smerriman says. Is the slam good on a diamond lead?

Third hand: Why is North guessing at the final contract on his second bid in a game forcing auction where there is plenty of room for slam investigation? It looks like the sort of bid a player makes when they do not trust their partner to understand anything but very simple auctions. Even RCKB would be better, then you can bid 7NT with confidence if you get a 5♠ response, and 7♥ looks good opposite AKxxxx xxx xx xx which would be a 5♥ response, but 3♥ looks reasonable.

You don't want to be bidding grand slams on a finesse which is in general 50%, the loss of going down in the grand when the opposition bid and make the small is greater than if you make the grand, so you have to be right more than 50% to show a profit.

[DavidKok]

Sorry in advance if this seems like grandstanding. There are some common themes on display here that many players struggle with, and I think it helps to be familiar with both the general theme and the specific instances of it.

Board 10 is about hand evaluation and the notrump ladder. I am slowly starting to regret not writing my long piece on that. In my view, North is not close to worth an upgrade, but South has their bidding. These two hands are not similar at all, and I would definitely upgrade the South hand if partner's 1NT shows 15-17. If instead it shows 14-16, or 'good 14-bad 17', or 'frequent upgrades', I would be more hesitant.
In general, being comfortable with your notrump ladder is really important. Opening or rebidding NT puts partner in the driver's seat, giving them a solid idea of both degree of fit and combined strength. Since notrump hands are also very frequent (around 40-60% of all opening hands, depending on style), it is very important to be consistent with them. On this hand North and South had a different interpretation of the NT ladder, and it ended up costing.
The second theme of this hand, already alluded to above, is hand evaluation. How strong are the North and South hands? I'd say the North hand is a slightly above average balanced 14-count. Aces and kings are good, the spade intermediates are good, even the two red suit nines might prove useful. But 4333 is bad, and we're in fourth - partner could not open the bidding. It's not worth 15-17.

Board 16 is about two themes as well: support with support, and dealing with a preempt. I think on this hand the issue is mostly the second one, if partner really did not know what to do. It helps to have agreements or meta-agreements about competitive bidding. In particular, which calls or bids are raises, and which deny support. Some people prefer to mix them, but personally I am not a fan of this at all. Having a way to show partner that you can support their suit is the most important asset in a competitive auction, and it pays to discuss these. On this auction that'd be 4♠, going past 4♥ - though some experts use 4♣ instead as a switch, for that very reason. I think South did well to identify that the hand was too strong for a direct 4♥, but then did not have the knowledge to follow up on that with a strong raise.

Board 25 is poorly done by North. The 2♣ preempt is systemic with such a strong hand, but the quadruple jump next round is inefficient. We're already in a game force, we have slam interest, stop jumping. We don't know the best strain and we don't know the level. So use the space between 2♠ and 6♠ to figure it out. I would also rebid 3♥ here, showing 5(+)♥ and at most 2 spades. South will raise hearts with the 3-card support, thankfully (we'd be slightly fixed if South rebid 3♠ instead, having no way to show a raise too strong for 4♠ without going past it!), and now we are well on our way to a slam in hearts or perhaps NT at MPs. On this deal I do not want to be in a grand, it requires a finesse which is poor odds given the scoring table. The theme here is not jumping with slam interest hands - a cheaper bid is almost always best.

[johnu]

Board 10:
I would probably upgrade North with 15 BUM-RAP HCP, ie. all aces and kings which are undervalued in Work point count. However, South had an easy invitational 2NT after transferring to hearts. The hearts are weak and need a fit to reliably provide a source of tricks. The solid diamonds are nice, but the ♦J may not carry full weight, and the overall hand is a bit quacky. Opposite an invitational 2NT, North has an easy decline of game.

Simulations say that game is a solid underdog opposite a minimum North hand (which is why 9HCP opposite a strong NT usually makes an invitational bid).

Board 16:
Very tough hand for South. If North has the most frequent hand, and 11-14 HCP hand with some semi-balanced hand like 2-5-3-3 or 2-5-4-2, etc, then slam is not going to be good. Playing with a good partner, I think I would try 4♠ and hope partner can cooperate.

Board 25:

Quote

Is a 7-level contract a good idea here?

You answered your own question by acknowledging that the ♠K was onside, which makes any grand slam at best 50% (actually less for 7♠ since you can't pick up 4-1 or 5-0 splits unless the king is singleton onside).

smerriman gave the best continuation. South only showed a 5 card spade suit (any specific suit quality promised, like 2 of top 3 honors?) Opposite most 5 card suits, and some 6 card suits, 6♠ may be a below average contract.

[mikl_plkcc]

4333 is the worst possible shape in suit, but why isn't it the best possible shape in NT? When we play NT we want to be as balanced as possible, don't we?

One of the reason of opening 1NT was that it is a picture bid, and I wanted to show my shape in 1 bid without the opponents being able to enter the auction, rather than giving information away to the opponents to find their killing defence ending up in NT anyway.

If I bid normally, the bidding would likely went 1♣ - 1♥ - 1♠ - 2NT - all pass.

Or should I stayed in 3NT instead of bidding 4♥ because I was 4333 even there was a 8-card fit, because I wouldn't contribute any ruffing potential and I was stopped in all remaining suits?

[DavidKok]

mikl_plkcc, on 2025-February-08, 07:18, said:

4333 is the worst possible shape in suit, but why isn't it the best possible shape in NT? When we play NT we want to be as balanced as possible, don't we?

Good question. It is still the worst possible shape, of all the balanced hands. We don't want to be as balanced as possible for NT - rather, we want a source of tricks, and the side suits adequately stopped. With 5332 or 4432 the chance of finding a source of tricks in our longer suits is better than with 4333, and this more than compensates for the lower risk by having the suits stopped better on average.
More importantly though, we often don't bid 1NT to play 1NT, but to give partner an easy auction to our likely best contract. For this 4333 is, while still the worst shape, often somewhat underrated. Having 3-card support for any 5-card suit partner has is a bit of an advantage if partner introduces a long suit, though it is at least partially offset by the lack of ruffing potential in the short hand.

mikl_plkcc, on 2025-February-08, 07:18, said:

One of the reason of opening 1NT was that it is a picture bid, and I wanted to show my shape in 1 bid without the opponents being able to enter the auction, rather than giving information away to the opponents to find their killing defence ending up in NT anyway.

I am sorry, but this is very wrong. A key part of having a good notrump ladder, and getting to good spots on those 40-60% of the openings mentioned, is showing your balanced hand and your range reliably. We no longer have things such as picture bids for NT, or freedom to upgrade for the sake of shutting out the opponents. This time your partner was the one who was successfully misled by your actions. Keep in mind as well that both opponents had already passed prior to your bid, so tactical considerations play a particularly small role in this seat.

mikl_plkcc, on 2025-February-08, 07:18, said:

If I bid normally, the bidding would likely went 1♣ - 1♥ - 1♠ - 2NT - all pass.

I am a fan of rebidding 1NT, not 1♠. Showing the strength and hand type with the rebid is, in my opinion, more helpful to partner than showing the four card spade suit - especially with modern gadgets slapped on. The negative inferences when we do rebid a suit are also valuable. The last time this topic came up it sparked a bit of a discussion, so I'll leave it here instead. I do think if you rebid 1♠ partner should look at their quacky 10-count with a misfit in all suits and go low by rebidding 1NT, not 2NT.

mikl_plkcc, on 2025-February-08, 07:18, said:

Or should I stayed in 3NT instead of bidding 4♥ because I was 4333 even there was a 8-card fit, because I wouldn't contribute any ruffing potential and I was stopped in all remaining suits?

3NT versus 4M is a complicated topic, and 4333 is definitely one argument in favour of staying in 3NT. However, the high number of controls and values in partner's secondary suit is an argument for 4♥. In short, I think this is a complicated topic. I will say though, if you have not discussed this with your partner, do not suddenly spring passes of 3NT with a fit for their major on them. You will inevitably get it wrong some of the time, and it's better to have investigated and discussed the statistics ahead of time before changing your style. Richard Pavlicek's site has a bunch of good information on this topic.

[jillybean]

DavidKok, on 2025-February-08, 03:10, said:

I am slowly starting to regret not writing my long piece on that.

There is an easy fix