[Cyberyeti]

mike777, on 2024-December-03, 15:24, said:

Yes much more, minimum gf is generally 7 LTC, hands:

1. 8.5 adjusted LTC
2. 7.5 adjusted LTC
3. 7.0 adjusted LTC

I don't know how you're adjusting your GFs but you're not GFing straight off the bat, you're GFing in the knowledge that partner has clubs and spades, hence stiff ♣K almost certainly covers one of partner's losers for example, I can't imagine staying out of game on any of those hands is percentage, and I get much lower loser counts than you do.

[akwoo]

I bid 5♣. I really wish partner had shown something better than a dead minimum game force with 2♦, but I'm hoping that partner wouldn't have bid 4♥ with some dreck like QJxx KQJx QJxx x (and even then 5♠ isn't hopeless).

In response to your next question - if partner bids 5♠ I pass and if partner bids anything below 5♠ I bid 5♠. If partner bids 6♣ I bid 6♦.

[mike777]

 Cyberyeti, on 2024-December-03, 15:38, said:

I don't know how you're adjusting your GFs but you're not GFing straight off the bat, you're GFing in the knowledge that partner has clubs and spades, hence stiff ♣K almost certainly covers one of partner's losers for example, I can't imagine staying out of game on any of those hands is percentage, and I get much lower loser counts than you do.

3S, to me, screams you have more than minimum gf, much more than these examples.
1. You did not bid 4s over 1s
2. You did not bid 4s over 3c
3. Whatever last train promises on this auction..
4. You use LTC only after a known fit, unfortunately many ignore this rule.

As Paul Newman once was told " we have a failure to communicate"
😊 💜

[mike777]

 akwoo, on 2024-December-03, 15:45, said:

I bid 5♣. I really wish partner had shown something better than a dead minimum game force with 2♦, but I'm hoping that partner wouldn't have bid 4♥ with some dreck like QJxx KQJx QJxx x (and even then 5♠ isn't hopeless).

In response to your next question - if partner bids 5♠ I pass and if partner bids anything below 5♠ I bid 5♠. If partner bids 6♣ I bid 6♦.

I don't understand, what is your belief based on responder could have this?

[Cyberyeti]

mike777, on 2024-December-03, 15:55, said:

3S, to me, screams you have more than minimum gf, much more than these examples.
1. You did not bid 4s over 1s
2. You did not bid 4s over 3c
3. Whatever last train promises on this auction..
4. You use LTC only after a known fit, unfortunately many ignore this rule.

As Paul Newman once was told " we have a failure to communicate"
😊 💜

OP told you last train might just be a heart control. 4♠ over 1 certainly the way I play is A10xx, KQxxxx, xx, x, not really in this argument, 3♠ just says I don't have a 12 count that's barely a game force, to me every 14+ count will bid this way and some 13s.

[mike777]

 Cyberyeti, on 2024-December-03, 16:12, said:

OP told you last train might just be a heart control. 4♠ over 1 certainly the way I play is A10xx, KQxxxx, xx, x, not really in this argument, 3♠ just says I don't have a 12 count that's barely a game force, to me every 14+ count will bid this way and some 13s.

Thank you for your thoughtful response.
We agree on your 1s-4S bidding.
An adjusted LTC of 7. 😊

Yes, going through 4sf or XYZ, same auction, and rebidding 3S or 4S is clearly different to us. Again thanks for engaging.
😁

[smerriman]

My usual bid here would be 4NT, because I struggle to know how to ensure we have the trump queen by cue-bidding. But we'll have a tricky decision over a 5♥ response.

But trying to learn from past threads, if I start with 5♣, hear 5♥, and then bid 5♠, partner won't be passing with two aces and the queen, so maybe that's a better way forward.

(Side point - having denied a diamond control, that frees up a 5♦ bid for partner. What would that mean - could it be used as something else last-train-ish, or does it just show 3rd round control?)

Going based on your definitions, 5♦ by me now is a rather funny choice - the club king is a crucial card, and if partner has it they'll immediately know we've lied, and perhaps why..

[DavidKok]

 mike777, on 2024-December-03, 15:55, said:

3S, to me, screams you have more than minimum gf, much more than these examples.

Mike, with your agreements you'll get to play 4♠ when I reveal the hands.

 Cyberyeti, on 2024-December-03, 15:38, said:

I don't know how you're adjusting your GFs but you're not GFing straight off the bat, you're GFing in the knowledge that partner has clubs and spades, hence stiff ♣K almost certainly covers one of partner's losers for example, I can't imagine staying out of game on any of those hands is percentage, and I get much lower loser counts than you do.

This is exactly right. At the decision point for bidding 3♠ partner knew of our spades and clubs, and also had negative inferences about our heart and diamond suit holdings. This helps inform hand evaluation away from crude MLTC or other simple formulae. This is one of the downsides of playing 4♠ as a value raise - your hand might have been worth an upgrade in light of new information, but you'll never find out.


More generally, if we have two ways to confirm the trump suit, once with a jump (4♠) and once without (3♠), from a bidding theory point of view the jump should contain about 3% of the hands and the non-jump should contain 97%. This is because there are 32x as many auctions from 3♠ to slam compared to 4♠. In practice nobody has agreements that efficient, so ~10% is more reasonable. But since most hands in a strong range are minimum, you probably don't exhaust even the minimum HCP value for your range with this 10% rule. That doesn't mean that 3♠ is garbage, but rather that it's a good idea to play it as wide ranging. Especially since opener still hasn't limited the hand all that much, and may well have slam interest opposite the right minimum game force but not have 5-level safety depending on the controls and side suits.

I'll resume the auction later today, this was just an aside.