[helene_t]

When we discussed the Bird/Anthias book on opening leads, the issue came up to what extent their findings (passive leads, unsupported aces, H from HHxx against NT, short major suits rather than 4-card minor suits against NT) also applies in the real World and not just in DD sims.

I have downloaded the entire vugraph archieve and produced an analysis set: boards where the same contract was reached (by the same declarer) after unopposed auctions at at least two tables and at least two different leads were chosen. 81687 boards, in total 239697 leads.

So far I found no statistically significant difference between leading and not leading an unsupported ace, but obviously there are lot of other hypothesis that can be tested. It is also a somewhat interesting problem for statisticians to discuss the most meaningful way of testing specific hypotheses.

The csv file is hopefully self explanatory. Maybe we should set up a Jupiter Notebook project to colaborate on the analysis?

https://drive.google...iew?usp=sharing

[mike777]

Ty
Very interesting