[pescetom]

The bidding of this board was described here, but nobody hung around to discuss the play.
It's probably more pertinent to promising beginners anyway, because the eternal intermediates will always get it wrong.

MP

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West leads ♣Q, the dummy comes down and you can see that if trumps split 2-1 you have 13 tricks (right?).
You take in hand and lead ♥A: West show out with a small spade.
Your revised plan to take all the remaining tricks?

[Ranmit]

I see 2 potential lines, but neither look promising...

1. Assume W has 5 diamonds (or fewer, but with both honors) - in this case, it is a simple squeeze against W.
2. Assume W has a doubleton diamond honor, in which case cash the AK♦ and take a ruffing finesse through E.

I suppose I could play 3 clubs first - if W shows out it is an easy decision. If both follow I think I play for line 2. Does W lead of the Q♣ indicate anything (QJ10, or length)?

I do feel like I am missing something obvious though!

[pescetom]

Ranmit, on 2024-October-31, 16:05, said:

I see 2 potential lines, but neither look promising...

1. Assume W has 5 diamonds (or fewer, but with both honors) - in this case, it is a simple squeeze against W.
2. Assume W has a doubleton diamond honor, in which case cash the AK♦ and take a ruffing finesse through E.

I suppose I could play 3 clubs first - if W shows out it is an easy decision. If both follow I think I play for line 2. Does W lead of the Q♣ indicate anything (QJ10, or length)?

I do feel like I am missing something obvious though!

Let's start with the really obvious (but not to most N/B).
Can you count 13 tricks if both follow to ♥A?

[Ranmit]

Ah of course, As long as W has strictly 6 spades, one can just continue with the original plan - ruff N's losers in hand before drawing the last trump.

[thepossum]

I was going to say a simple squeeze did not sound like NB stuff
I'm thinking cross ruff but too tired to even think

[Cyberyeti]

Doubleton jack or less likely K of spades with E is another possiblility, but not sure you can do everything.

KJxxxx
void
QJ..
QJ.. (presumed by the lead)

looks like a 1♠ overcall not 2♠.

Quote

Ah of course, As long as W has strictly 6 spades, one can just continue with the original plan - ruff N's losers in hand before drawing the last trump.

you need to be very careful with your entries and timing, and it may not be good enough.

3 rounds of diamonds, do the QJ drop ? QJx with E will do you.
2 further rounds of clubs ruffing
spade to the ace
ruff the last diamond and as long as E follows you're OK, if he pitches his second spade he promotes his trump
cash your last trump in hand, ruff a spade draw trumps and claim

you can't do everything, either the crossruff or the squeeze lines but not both.

[pescetom]

If the ♥A did drop two trumps then you could just draw the remaining trump and cash the remaining winners, then three rounds of cross ruffs.
1+2+2+2+(2x3)=13.

[pescetom]

Finding a 2-1 split of trumps was a 78% probability a priori, so when West shows out our best chance has gone.
But there are still (at least) three possibilities, as cyberyeti implies:
- that either opponent holds ♦QJ(x), so we can promote a third diamond
- that East holds either ♠K or (more likely) ♠J
- that West can be squeezed in diamonds and spades.

As N/B I think we should forget the squeeze line and go for diamonds and spades, combinining the two to keep transport flexible and see more discards.
Do you see how the spades line works?
Which of diamonds and spades is more likely to succeed?

[Cyberyeti]

pescetom, on 2024-November-01, 11:59, said:

Finding a 2-1 split of trumps was a 78% probability a priori, so when West shows out our best chance has gone.
But there are still (at least) three possibilities, as cyberyeti implies:
- that either opponent holds ♦QJ(x), so we can promote a third diamond
- that East holds either ♠K or (more likely) ♠J
- that West can be squeezed in diamonds and spades.

As N/B I think we should forget the squeeze line and go for diamonds and spades, combinining the two to keep transport flexible and see more discards.
Do you see how the spades line works?
Which of diamonds and spades is more likely to succeed?

You can combine ♦/♠ or diamonds and the 4th crossruff line which depends on E having any 4+ diamonds or QJ(x), or you can combine spade honour doubleton and the spade/diamond squeeze.

The squeeze is VERY unlikely to work if the spade K or J doesn't drop from E as KJ 6th/QJ/QJ looks like 1♠ not 2 for most people.

[pescetom]

Cyberyeti, on 2024-November-01, 13:16, said:

You can combine ♦/♠ or diamonds and the 4th crossruff line which depends on E having any 4+ diamonds or QJ(x), or you can combine spade honour doubleton and the spade/diamond squeeze.

I suggest the squeeze should be off bounds for N/B by definition
But even if not, as you suggested earlier it implies a hand that most would have bid as 1♠ rather than a weak 2♠.
Also see below.

Cyberyeti, on 2024-November-01, 13:16, said:

The squeeze is VERY unlikely to work if the spade K or J doesn't drop from E

And if the honour does drop, then the squeeze is not necessary anyway.

[Cyberyeti]

pescetom, on 2024-November-01, 13:59, said:

And if the honour does drop, then the squeeze is not necessary anyway.

You just don't want to be playing against me, xxxxx, void, QJxx, QJxx might just bid 2♠ - OOPS

[smerriman]

pescetom, on 2024-November-01, 11:59, said:

But there are still (at least) three possibilities, as cyberyeti implies:
- that either opponent holds ♦QJ(x), so we can promote a third diamond
- that East holds either ♠K or (more likely) ♠J
- that West can be squeezed in diamonds and spades.

Doesn't the crossruff still work if East simply has 4+ diamonds, 3+ clubs, and 2 spades, regardless of honors?

[mycroft]

Cyberyeti, on 2024-November-01, 14:10, said:

You just don't want to be playing against me, xxxxx, void, QJxx, QJxx might just bid 2♠ - OOPS

If the squeeze is off-limits in N/B, perhaps their opponents don't bid like you or me either?

[pescetom]

smerriman, on 2024-November-01, 14:35, said:

Doesn't the crossruff still work if East simply has 4+ diamonds, 3+ clubs, and 2 spades, regardless of honors?

Yes you're right, that is another possibility (and more likely than finding either with QJx).

[Cyberyeti]

smerriman, on 2024-November-01, 14:35, said:

Doesn't the crossruff still work if East simply has 4+ diamonds, 3+ clubs, and 2 spades, regardless of honors?

It does, but if the spade J drops, the ruffing finesse looks like better odds than hoping E has 4 diamonds.

The problem is that you can't combine the chances, as ruffing the second spade needs to happen after you've denuded your hand of trumps and entries if you go for the crossruff.

[pescetom]

Cyberyeti, on 2024-November-01, 16:10, said:

It does, but if the spade J drops, the ruffing finesse looks like better odds than hoping E has 4 diamonds.

I agree, but now you've blown that one too
I don't think it is at all obvious to N/B that we can make a second spade trick with a ruffing finesse if the J drops in East.
Some of our eternal intermediates failed to spot that and some of our beginners would need explanation of what is a ruffing finesse, come to that.