[jillybean]

This is the hand from my other post, Tops and Bottoms

You find yourself in 2C, (you pulled the wrong card, or sat in when South has a medical emergency) can someone please explain how they would plan the play?

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9H led, what’s your plan?

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

counting loosers you have 6

- 3C (one can be avoided, if the King is with opener and trumps are no worse than 4-2)
- 1H (cannot be avoided)
- 2S (one can be avoided, if the Ace is with opener)

You should try to avoid add. trump loosers, so you should try to draw trumps as fast as poss.
In a 7 card fit, 4-3, it is usually a good strategy to establish a strong side suit, play 2
rounds of trumps and let them trump a side suit winner.
As it is your side suit is already established.

So my plan would be win the Ace, cash the Ace of trumps, enter dummy and play trumps towards
the Queen in my hand, if it holds, you can play a 3rd round of trumps.
Playing the Ace of trumps fast, prevents them from making ruffs with small trumps.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[mikeh]

You’re missing 17 hcp, so the odds are high that LHO has one, but not both, of the club king and spade ace.

If he has the spade ace, then the club hook will win, and we are cold on 4-2 or 3-3 clubs…1h, 3 clubs and 4 diamonds (assuming no worse than 4-2 clubs)

Ok, so we know how to play if we assume that the spade ace is offside. What if it’s onside? Now LHO probably has the club king and RHO has multiple entries….let’s imagine the play. Diamond to dummy, club hook losing. Heart to RHO, high heart back….we ruff low, overruffed and back a spade (negating the need for us to play the suit). Another high heart, ruffed and overruffed. But now LHO is endplayed and we can draw another round of trump.

If LHO had 4 clubs, we’ve lost 1 heart, 3clubs and a spade…making 2C

But if clubs are 3=3, we may have lost three (3!) tricks to LHO. However, if one of his clubs is either the 3 or the 5, we can prevent that by ruffing the hearts with, firstly, the 6 and secondly, the 7. If RHO has J43 or 943 or 843 then we lose 4 clubs in total, and one in each major, for down one.

Can we do better? Club Ace then diamond up for a club to the Queen? LHO wins, heart to RHO, heart….ruff, overrruff, spade to the ace, heart. If clubs are 4-2 then LHO is still getting (usually) 3clubs, but we make.

Ok, maybe club ace then lead towards the queen is better than the hook, if the club king is offside. It’s close…the losing case for the early hook is unlikely….LHO has to have KJ9/KJ8/K98….but why not cater to that?

Hmmm….what if the club king is onside?

Say clubs are 4-2, with LHO having 4, which is far more likely than LHO having 4. Club ace, cross in diamonds…club up..RHO wins, tracks the spade Queen…

If we cover, back a heart (not a spade)…..LHO leads his last high heart…do we ruff with the Queen…promoting 2 club tricks for LHO if he had 4 to start with? Then we’re down…3 clubs, a heart and 2 spades. But if we ruff low, then almost surely LHO gets two more clubs anyway, assuming RHO has the spade Jack. Admittedly, this requires excellent defence

We do survive the club ace, cross in diamonds and lead clubs, if clubs are 3-3. But they will be 4-2 far more often than 3=3…even with no clue from the bidding, suits break 4-2 much more often than 3=3 and, here, we know that hearts are either 6-1 or, most likely, 5-2. Indeed, I’m assuming 5-2 when mapping out the play.

All of this persuades me that the best line is to cross to dummy at trick two and hook the club.

All of the above match seem like a lot of work for a 2C contract. Those who kibitz important team matches know that many expert declarers take a long time to declare, especially early in the play. I’m not claiming they’d all think like I outline above (let alone come to the same opinion) but they are all doing the same basic idea (most of them doing better at it than I do) and that’s why the play can seem very slow.

[jillybean]

Thank you. It's obvious that I need to spend considerably more time visualizing the hands and planning the play.
Although I played this in 1nt

[awm]

What do people think about ducking the first heart? I suppose this could be quite bad if hearts are 6-1, but most RHOs will rebid 2♥ here with KQJxxx of heart I think. Assuming we don't get this break, ducking the heart could cut communication for LHO's trump promotions on some lines.

[pescetom]

 awm, on 2024-September-19, 02:18, said:

What do people think about ducking the first heart? I suppose this could be quite bad if hearts are 6-1, but most RHOs will rebid 2♥ here with KQJxxx of heart I think. Assuming we don't get this break, ducking the heart could cut communication for LHO's trump promotions on some lines.

At least we would discover where the spades Ace is

I'm still wondering about 9H.

[jillybean]

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If you duck the ♥9 lead, RHO wins with K, returns ♥Q, LHO plays ♥7

[mikeh]

Adam’s suggestion is an excellent one. It’s unlikely that east has six hearts but not necessarily because he didn’t reopen. QJx KQJxxx x Kxx, even at fovoursble, isn’t an automatic reopening, given that partner passed over 2C…but I’d open 2H with that hand, given that game is basically impossible on most layouts. Plus even with your heart Ace being ruffed out, you’re making 2C on that layout.

Adding to Adam’s suggestion…if you intend to duck the heart 9, why cover? By ducking, if east decides to play for a stiff in partner’s hand, even with KQJxx, overtaking risks you being able, eventually, to set up a heart in dummy….say he plays the King and returns the queen…you now have a ruffing hook in hearts available to you. It’s not really worth much on this hand but west can’t know that.

As it is, on the defence, east is signalling the spade Ace, so I’d play west for the club king. It’s not a sure thing because east might have a big hand but the wrong shape to computer. Say AJxx KQJxx x KJx. But I think probabilities still favour playing for split high honours in the blacks. Anyway, with the spade ace onside (and the fact that east will almost always signal, and signal honestly, is another excellent reason for ducking the heart….if I had thought of it, I’d not have covered the 9.

[jillybean]

Here's the full hand, any signalling was purely accidental.

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