[pescetom]

GiB couldn't resist playing South for ♦K at trick 10 here.

[smerriman]

Can't really blame it; 4:3 odds makes it a clear best line from that given position. How to adjust the odds based on what other tables might have done instead prior to that point is a problem I don't even know how to solve as a human

[fuzzyquack]

Partnering GIB, bid NT first

[pescetom]

 smerriman, on 2023-December-16, 18:37, said:

Can't really blame it; 4:3 odds makes it a clear best line from that given position. How to adjust the odds based on what other tables might have done instead prior to that point is a problem I don't even know how to solve as a human

It might just be sheer bad luck but this "clear best line" was a second bottom among 20 tables
If it helps to adjust your or GiB's radar, 3NT-1 was 6.5% and the certain 3NT+1 available was 69.6%.
3x69.6 >> 4x6.5.

[smerriman]

 pescetom, on 2023-December-17, 15:30, said:

3x69.6 >> 4x6.5.

That's not the right calculation.. if +2 was 100% and -1 was 0%, then taking the finesse averages (4*100 + 3*0)/7 = 57%. But yes, it doesn't know that not taking the finesse averages higher than that since it assumes everyone is facing the same question, and has no clue that it's ahead of the field already.

[pescetom]

 smerriman, on 2023-December-17, 16:08, said:

That's not the right calculation.. if +2 was 100% and -1 was 0%, then taking the finesse averages (4*100 + 3*0)/7 = 57%. But yes, it doesn't know that not taking the finesse averages higher than that since it assumes everyone is facing the same question, and has no clue that it's ahead of the field already.

Yes you're right now, sorry.
I forgot to consider that 3NT+2 was 97.8%...
never post following a 4 hour Christmas tournament and dinner

[lorserker]

I think that several mistakes happened earlier.

Instead of the D4, the S5 should be discarded.

The SA should not be cashed. If it kept a stopper in each major suit (SA and H8), then it would be able to cross to the CA and run the DQ with no risk (keeping Axx diamonds intact is important for entries).

[pescetom]

 lorserker, on 2023-December-18, 10:07, said:

I think that several mistakes happened earlier.

Instead of the D4, the S5 should be discarded.

The SA should not be cashed. If it kept a stopper in each major suit (SA and H8), then it would be able to cross to the CA and run the DQ with no risk (keeping Axx diamonds intact is important for entries).

To put it another way, what looks like a poor play is trick 5 where it blows the hearts stop.
Would it not be better to hook the ♣J and return to ♣A?
North shows out, but now it can run ♦Q with no risk, as you say.

But that actually makes a trick less than GiB had already assured itself at trick 10, so maybe we just aren't visualizing as well as the robot