[pescetom]

MP

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Lead ♥4, probably 4th below honour. How do you plan to proceed?

[pescetom]

Too simple to answer?

Perhaps so, but a good number of intermediates went down despite an unremarkable distribution in NS.

[DavidKok]

This doesn't look simple to me, though realistically that just shows how much my declarer play is lacking. I'll try anyway.

Spoiler

The immediate risk is losing a spade, two diamonds and a club (or a third diamond if we can't navigate the ruffs). The auction limits North to about 11 HCP, but we can't draw many more inferences. It is very possible that North has, say, ♥K, ♦A and one or two of the missing queens, in which case the contract is at risk.
My basic plan is to draw two rounds of trumps, giving up on the spade finesse, and then cashing ♣A and running the jack of clubs (actually I should probably win the second spade with the king and immediately finesse the club without cashing the ace - see below for my entry problems). This wins when the queen of spades drops doubleton, when South has the queen of clubs, and gives additional chances when the spades split 3-2 and North has the club queen doubleton along with the ♥K. North wins the club trick and can cash the queen of spades, but a red suit return is likely to set up a trick for us and gives us chances of the tenth one in the form of diamond spots or an endplay in the red suits, though I think I've botched my communications?

The alternative plans of trying to ruff two hearts (heart ace, spade ace, spade to the king, heart ruff, club to the ace, heart ruff) leave me stranded in the wrong hand and no good way to draw the last trump even if the spade queen drops, and returning a low diamond on trick two is scary if South wins, switches to a heart (West pitching a diamond) and North winning the king and I still have the diamond ace to lose, so now I need to get trumps and clubs right. I don't see a better way to combine some of these chances - simple finesses in two or three suits might work (hold off on clubs, finesse in spades and diamonds first in case the position gets resolved) but I think this is worse odds than my original line.

[pescetom]

DavidKok, on 2023-December-13, 08:23, said:

This doesn't look simple to me, though realistically that just shows how much my declarer play is lacking. I'll try anyway.

Thanks for trying. I hope some others of various levels will have their say too.

[mikeh]

I’ve had problems posting: I keep getting a message that the site is flooded or down even when it’s not…a short ‘test’ post went through

So I’m going to set out my line without explanation. I may try to add an explanation in another post

Win the heart, club to the jack. The plan is to ruff two hearts and a winning trick 2 hook clears up pretty much all entry problems while losing doesn’t mean I’m down even if they can now take two diamonds…I think the chances of the diamond ace onside are marginally above 50% due to (slender) inferences from the lead

[pescetom]

mikeh, on 2023-December-13, 13:05, said:

Win the heart, club to the jack. The plan is to ruff two hearts and a winning trick 2 hook clears up pretty much all entry problems

Thanks. Say the jack holds, what would you play to reenter for the second hearts ruff?

Hoping someone closer to the level of our players will have their say in the meantime.

[mikeh]

pescetom, on 2023-December-13, 13:52, said:

Thanks. Say the jack holds, what would you play to reenter for the second hearts ruff?

Hoping someone closer to the level of our players will have their say in the meantime.

Tell me precisely who played what to the first three tricks�� Also, are they players who think it a sin not to give count all the time?

Edit: I doubt that south has a stiff club since he didn’t lead the suit, so I’m inclined to return to hand with the club Ace, but I still want to know who played what before committing

[pescetom]

Following your plan (I would have cashed the Ace before hooking the Jack, but probably I missed something) the first three tricks might go:

Hearts 4 A 5 3
Spades 6 5 J 4
Hearts 9 T ruff 6.

Most of our intermediates are erratic with count even when it is mandatory.

[pescetom]

DavidKok, on 2023-December-13, 08:23, said:

My basic plan is to draw two rounds of trumps, giving up on the spade finesse, and then cashing ♣A and running the jack of clubs (actually I should probably win the second spade with the king and immediately finesse the club without cashing the ace - see below for my entry problems). This wins when the queen of spades drops doubleton, when South has the queen of clubs, and gives additional chances when the spades split 3-2 and North has the club queen doubleton along with the ♥K. North wins the club trick and can cash the queen of spades, but a red suit return is likely to set up a trick for us and gives us chances of the tenth one in the form of diamond spots or an endplay in the red suits, though I think I've botched my communications?

This looks a bit odd to me, more of a safety play at IMPs than something a MP player would try at the table?
You don't spell out what you do if the ♠Q drops doubleton, but I imagine you pull the remaining trump before tackling the clubs as you described.
In which case you will probably stagger in with 10 tricks against most intermediates, but go down against advanced defenders.

DavidKok, on 2023-December-13, 08:23, said:

The alternative plans of trying to ruff two hearts (heart ace, spade ace, spade to the king, heart ruff, club to the ace, heart ruff) leave me stranded in the wrong hand and no good way to draw the last trump even if the spade queen drops, and returning a low diamond on trick two is scary if South wins, switches to a heart (West pitching a diamond) and North winning the king and I still have the diamond ace to lose, so now I need to get trumps and clubs right. I don't see a better way to combine some of these chances - simple finesses in two or three suits might work (hold off on clubs, finesse in spades and diamonds first in case the position gets resolved) but I think this is worse odds than my original line.

This looks more like what our intermediates would try, and following your choice of how to get clubs right it goes down 1.

[thepossum]

pescetom, on 2023-December-12, 16:32, said:

MP

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Lead ♥4, probably 4th below honour. How do you plan to proceed?

Always nervous
Win the Ace, spade to the King, ruff a small heart, club to the Ace, lead Queen of hearts and ruff if necessary - see what happens after that - 1 down lol
You did ask for people fo different levels to comment
Now to read the thread so nobody thinks I pinched their ideas
I think I will go down 1 unless lucky

[pescetom]

thepossum, on 2023-December-16, 23:56, said:

Always nervous
Win the Ace, spade to the King, ruff a small heart, club to the Ace, lead Queen of hearts and ruff if necessary - see what happens after that - 1 down lol
You did ask for people fo different levels to comment
Now to read the thread so nobody thinks I pinched their ideas
I think I will go down 1 unless lucky

Thanks for having your say unlike many other I/A
Not sure why you would ever not ruff hearts Q, otherwise your line is the same as mikeh if that consoles.
You were already down before that decision.

[thepossum]

pescetom, on 2023-December-17, 16:58, said:

Thanks for having your say unlike many other I/A
Not sure why you would ever not ruff hearts Q, otherwise your line is the same as mikeh if that consoles.
You were already down before that decision.

Yes I think ruffing the Queen was called for. Some weird idea about finessing lol
I am assuming my hearts will all be covered

I think the first few rounds be the same as Mike is about as far as the similarity gets lol
I'm struggling to plan far enough ahead to see all the tricks

[mikeh]

pescetom, on 2023-December-17, 16:58, said:

Thanks for having your say unlike many other I/A
Not sure why you would ever not ruff hearts Q, otherwise your line is the same as mikeh if that consoles.

Really? The only play in common was winning the singleton heart ace, lol

[helene_t]

Assuming that one of the three finesses works, I need either to ruff two hearts or two diamonds.

Hearts look easier, but there's a shortness of entries to East. I will start by running ♣10. Let's say it looses and South returns a club. I will win trick 3 in the hand, ruff a heart, and finesse ♠J.

If the spade finesse also looses and South returns a spade, I will have to win in dummy as I need to keep another small spade in dummy for the second heart ruff. I play a club to my hand and take the diamond finesse. This needs to work but if South doesn't take the first diamond trick, I can only get back to my hand by conceeding a diamond and hoping to ruff the third diamond trick. This won't work - even if opps are friendly and play a diamond, I will be stuck after having ruffed the last heart and hand only ♠K and a club in my hand.

So it looks like that if I go for the heart ruffs, either the club or the spade finesse has to work.

I am wondering if I should overtake ♣10 with ♣J in trick two to maximize entries to the hand.

Or maybe it is better to try to ruff two diamonds in my hand.

Or maybe only go for a single ruff and just hope that two finessed work.

Or maybe it is something with a partial elimination and endplay but I can't see it.

[pescetom]

mikeh, on 2023-December-17, 20:54, said:

Really? The only play in common was winning the singleton heart ace, lol

I remembered you stating a line of play different from the one that now appears and including crossing to the clubs Ace for the second ruff - I'f that's my memory error then my apologies.

[mikeh]

pescetom, on 2023-December-18, 10:52, said:

I remembered you stating a line of play different from the one that now appears and including crossing to the clubs Ace for the second ruff - I'f that's my memory error then my apologies.

Apology accepted

I try to show edits. I sometimes blunder in my analysis, but I try not to cover it up, and a simple rethink usually gets a new post explaining why I changed my mind

[pescetom]

Thanks to those who replied.
As this is getting a bit long in the tooth - and to make it easier to discuss - I guess it is time to show the actual layout.

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[pescetom]

helene_t, on 2023-December-18, 10:20, said:

So it looks like that if I go for the heart ruffs, either the club or the spade finesse has to work.

That is what I would probably have thought at the table: what intrigued me on seeing so many people down and examing the board is that it looked to me as if the club finesse has to work in any case.

In any case, your initial line gets that right on the actual layout: you earn a bonus point if you would have knowingly found the overtrick

[mikeh]

pescetom, on 2023-December-18, 10:52, said:

I remembered you stating a line of play different from the one that now appears and including crossing to the clubs Ace for the second ruff - I'f that's my memory error then my apologies.

I did indeed return to my hand with the club ace, but possum came to hand, the first time, with a spade to the king. I had come to hand the first time with a club to the Jack. So I made five, fwiw.

[pescetom]

mikeh, on 2023-December-18, 11:37, said:

I did indeed return to my hand with the club ace, but possum came to hand, the first time, with a spade to the king. I had come to hand the first time with a club to the Jack. So I made five, fwiw.

I remembered you coming to hand the first time with a spade to Jack - evidently I confused with another post.

Do you see any reason to prefer playing for the ♣Q in North rather than in South?
I suspect many of our players used ♠J and then ♣A as entries, which does not seem unreasonable (but goes down on this layout).