[pescetom]

Yes it is not a precise citation and yes it is the same board (forget it if you can) at a different table and from a different perspective.

MP, Friday night tournament (lively with plenty of beer).

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North leads ♥J.
You are pleasantly surprised by the hearts in dummy, dismayed by the rest.
What is your plan now?

[smerriman]

Maybe there's something more complex but I think I'm just winning the K and playing clubs from the top. Makes if QT falls or if South has the ace of diamonds and they can only take 3 tricks in spades.

The only alternative I see is winning the Q to leave the K as an entry and then playing on clubs, but if we need the entry we only have 8 tricks having blocked the hearts..

Edit - ignore me, I miscounted and they have 5 cashing tricks even in the first line.

[AL78]

1. Win in dummy, lead the ♣J and play low if South doesn't cover otherwise cover and hope to drop the ten.

2. If the angelic layout doesn't materialise and I go miles down, if I am partnering a lady with the attractiveness of a black hole, apologise sincerely for punting 3NT on that West hand and try to make up for it by inviting her out to dinner.

[pescetom]

So we have one for ♥K then ♣A, one for ♥Q then ♣J. Either one is wrong or (more likely) it's not a simple choice. I would be interested in more opinions.

Winning the K and trying to run the clubs has merits in terms of hearts tricks, but the odds of dropping QT are dismal (my beer-addled brain thought 1 in 8) and then only second chance is if generous opponents let us back in with diamonds, even then a QTxx clubs split (20% ish) might force us to settle for the hearts and any possible spade instead.

Winning the Q not only saves the K as an entry to the remaining clubs but enables us to play for clubs Q in South, as al78 points out. Again the odds are neither good nor easy to work out at the table, but if the Q is second or third in South (34%ish?) we should be able to pick up all seven clubs plus two hearts, if not then we can at least probably take the remaining clubs when they finally run out of tricks or imagination.

There is also the issue of limiting damage if we do go down. Partner is not a dinner prospect and has a beard, but there is still the issue of who pays the beer. If we can increase chances of limiting it to 1 down (with a little help from opponents) that might be the way to go.

[smerriman]

I'm retracting my vote since it was based on me making no sense. I agree with AL78's line (though I don't think it's 34%, you need to drop the T too even if South has the Q, so North needs specifically Tx or xxx, don't they? But that's 4 chances vs the alternative of 2 of QT in either hand.)

[pescetom]

smerriman, on 2023-November-07, 13:17, said:

I'm retracting my vote since it was based on me making no sense. I agree with AL78's line (though I don't think it's 34%, you need to drop the T too even if South has the Q, so North needs specifically Tx or xxx, don't they? But that's 4 chances vs the alternative of 2 of QT in either hand.)

Your original line (AK9 and pray) requires QT in either hand which is 2 chances (out of 32?) as you say.

Al78's line (J then AK) will work I think with Q stiff in S (1), Q second in S but not put up (4), Q third in S but not put up (6) or J stiff in either hand (2) for a total of 13 chances. If S puts up the Q then we have to cover and that still means letting them run for a while unless the T is second in either hand, which is why I kludged it down to mid thirties in my estimate.

[EDIT: some errors marked for deletion to avoid confusion]

[smerriman]

I'm probably missing something - if South has stiff Q for example, you take the first two tricks with AK then lose the next to the T, don't you? The same for most of the others.

[pescetom]

smerriman, on 2023-November-08, 12:30, said:

I'm probably missing something - if South has stiff Q for example, you take the first two tricks with AK then lose the next to the T, don't you? The same for most of the others.

Yes if the Q is stiff in S.
If it's in S but not stiff it depends also if he puts it up, many of our intermediates would not.
Just as it depends how many tricks they will find if you are forced to let them run.

[smerriman]

Ah, failing to cover seems a very bad mistake so I had even considered it. I guess no harm in adding a little for misdefense, though the 4 legitimate chances are still more than the 2 in the other line anyway.

[pescetom]

smerriman, on 2023-November-08, 12:48, said:

Ah, failing to cover seems a very bad mistake so I had even considered it. I guess no harm in adding a little for misdefense, though the 4 legitimate chances are still more than the 2 in the other line anyway.

Quite right of course, a decent player would cover with 2 or 3 cards and in that case there are only 4 legitimate chances (sorry, I miscounted some in the previous post).

4 is more than 2, but both are very poor odds: perhaps more important is that playing ♣J towards AK limits the damage if (when) we do lose control of the clubs, say a probable 1 down instead of a real bloodbath.

In this respect, I was a bit surprised nobody argued that taking ♥A might be better than taking ♥Q, as it retains a chance that North in with ♣Q will try a heart towards his partner's possible ♥K, increasing the odds of at least taking 8 tricks (albeit giving up the last faint hope of still making 9 if ♠J was promoted).

[pescetom]

Here is the full layout, for this and the other related thread.

MP, EW vulnerable

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I was one of two who played in 3NT as West, both of us taking the lead with ♥Q and running ♣J: we both got away with 1 down, the opps failing to sniff blood in diamonds.

At the table of the other thread, East played 3NT and made an outrageous +2 after South pulled 2 rounds of spades before shifting to the hearts bid by North: Declarer took ♥K and ran the clubs from the top, with North ending up compressed in the red suits - Friday night bridge at its best

That was the only table where South stretched to open 1♦ and yet three other tables played in diamonds (3♦ making, 4♦-1 and 4♦X-1), two finding the fit after a 1♠ opening in a canape' system and another after a rather pushy North double of 3♣.