[pilowsky]

This bidding sequence just appeared in today's 'Just Declare'.
What do North and South have in 1) HCP and 2) Spades.

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[pescetom]

South is mysterious, perhaps 6 spades and about 3 HCP.
North is clearer, should have 17+ HCP with 6 clubs, 5 diamonds and 4 spades.

[smerriman]

I trust the 3♦ bid so North will be somewhat strong with 5-6 in the minors. 3♠ is clearly a simmed bid that has nothing to do with its description; must be at most 4 HCP for the initial pass, but I wouldn't put it past having just 4 spades, since it knows "book-only partner" will never raise and so it's generally just a forcing bid that's guaranteed to end up playing in a minor. Of course, it's not playing with "book-only partner" and 4♠ is another simmed bid, probably with 2 spades.

[pilowsky]

smerriman, on 2023-May-19, 15:01, said:

Of course, it's not playing with "book-only partner" and 4♠ is another simmed bid, probably with 2 spades.

Not quite sure what you mean by "book-only partner"; It's "just declare" so all the bidding is GIB.
I like the 15 card in North hypothesis.

[smerriman]

pilowsky, on 2023-May-19, 16:32, said:

Not quite sure what you mean by "book-only partner"; It's "just declare" so all the bidding is GIB.

Whenever GIB is simulating what to bid, it assumes all further bids will be made exactly as the non-simulating database predicts (ie what basic robots would do). So it will think that there is a 0% chance its partner raises its bid to 4♠, even though its partner can simulate too and does bid 4♠.

[pilowsky]

So here's the full disaster - I managed 69% for only going -4.

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