Posted 2022-April-05, 07:28
Larry Cohen's "To bid or not to bid" covers this nicely.
Here you think that your side has 8 hearts and opps have 10 spades, so 18 tricks in total if the LAW can be trusted. This means that if opps can make exactly 10 tricks, your side can make 8 tricks which would make a sacrifice lucrative, but if they can make 11 your side can make only 7 hich would be too expensive - you are allowed to go 3 down at this vulnerability. And, of course, if they can make only 8 or 9 tricks, 5♥ would be a phantom sac.
If opps can make 7 tricks, your side can make 11. Then double is better than bidding, but you might not be considering doubling. Passing carries the risk of getting +300 when you could make +450, but thats a relatively small loss at IMPs considering all the other disasters that can happen on this board. Of course, against the alternative of collecting 800, 300 would be a huge lost opportunity.
Since 8, 9 or 11 is more likely than exactly 10, you should probably probably not bid 5♥, but there may be adjustments that could favour bidding:
- Your side may have a double fit - if partner also has diamond length, your diamonds would be useful only when declaring, not when defening
- there could be more than 18 total trumps
- Your singleton clubs is probably more useful for declaring than for defending. Consider that even if p has Axx of clubs and may be able to give you one or two ruffs, you don't always find the optimal defence
On the other hand, there could also be negative adjustments:
- Your spade holding is almost certainly useless when declaring, it may be a bit more useful when defending although it's not very likely
- Your trumps are poor, this makes it likely that one of the opps have a hearts holding that is more useful when they defend than when they declare
Sometimes bidding 5 can be good tactic because it may induce opps to bid too high.
It is also important to think of what double would mean, and if partner may do something if you pass. Here, partner will certainly pass no matter what you do (unless you bid something fancy like 4NT or 5♦).
If you consider bidding 5♥, bid 5♦ instead in case partner will have to lead against 5♠.
The world would be such a happy place, if only everyone played Acol :) --- TramTicket