[lamford]

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South leads the 7♦

Wales were bested by England yet again in the Camrose. Tom Townsend showed his class by bringing home this slam. Plan the play.

[mikeh]

At the table, where the stakes are very high, I’d probably take fifteen minutes to play to trick one😀

Online, where I have nothing much at stake (other than confirming Tom Townsend is a better declarer than I), I’ll go with my first instinct.

I pop the Queen.I assume it holds. If not (and we should be told, even if in a spoiler, if north has the king), I would rethink.

I hook the heart Queen at trick 2. I seem to have some communication issues and will be taking the hook eventually so why not now? Yes, there are a few layouts where I may regret this, but if it wins (I can’t imagine south ducking with Kx(x)) I can play a club to the king. Exactly what I do next depends on what I’ve seen so far but I expect to play a second club towards my Jack…popping if north shows out.

Let me know what happens on the heart hook….does it lose? Is south void? If he ruffs, with what?

[lamford]

 mikeh, on 2022-January-09, 20:52, said:

I hook the heart Queen at trick 2. I seem to have some communication issues and will be taking the hook eventually so why not now? Yes, there are a few layouts where I may regret this, but if it wins (I can’t imagine south ducking with Kx(x)) I can play a club to the king. Exactly what I do next depends on what I’ve seen so far but I expect to play a second club towards my Jack…popping if north shows out.

Let me know what happens on the heart hook….does it lose? Is south void? If he ruffs, with what?

The heart loses to the king and a second diamond comes back, all following.

[mikeh]

In that case, which was disappointing, I win the diamond return in hand and play a club to the king and back towards my Jack. I suspect I’ve adopted a losing line if only because this seems ‘obvious’ and I doubt the problem would be posted if obvious worked😀

[lamford]

 mikeh, on 2022-January-10, 10:06, said:

In that case, which was disappointing, I win the diamond return in hand and play a club to the king and back towards my Jack. I suspect I’ve adopted a losing line if only because this seems ‘obvious’ and I doubt the problem would be posted if obvious worked��

If you do that RHO follows low on the second club...

[mikeh]

 lamford, on 2022-January-10, 17:13, said:

If you do that RHO follows low on the second club...

Given that this is posted as a problem, playing for the drop is probably percentage, but South had no reason to think that we'd end up with a club guess, and overcalling 3D on K1087xxx and Qx of clubs, and the heart K (stiff or otherwise)seems a tad aggressive. So I know that at the table I'd almost surely finesse.

I think it's a psychological issue as much as anything else. Oswald Jacoby, in his prime was reputed (surely incorrectly) to have never gone wrong on a two way guess for a queen, but I'm no Oswald Jacoby and rarely exhibit much table feel. I think the percentages are surely in favour of the hook...LHO has presumably 7 diamonds, is known to have at least one heart, and RHO didn't try to muddy the waters in 3rd seat so probably doesn't have 7 spades (he might have opened a weak 2 with K109xxxx and out) so either the heart King was stiff or clubs are 3-1 (or both).

I've lost slam swings before and no doubt will again:)

[nullve]

I'm sure Townsend had knowledge that we lack about opps' preemptive style.

[lamford]

 mikeh, on 2022-January-10, 18:01, said:

Given that this is posted as a problem, playing for the drop is probably percentage

I've lost slam swings before and no doubt will again:)

Tom stated that he played me for my actual hand ♠ Kxxx ♥ K ♦ K98xxxx ♣ x as he thought the reason I did not open 3D was that I had four spades, and I therefore had to be 4-1-7-1. Nobody suspected him of peeking ...

[lamford]

 nullve, on 2022-January-10, 18:59, said:

I'm sure Townsend had knowledge that we lack about opps' preemptive style.

Indeed; he is my London selector and captain in the Tollemache (the England and Wales County Championship) ...

[joegrue]

 lamford, on 2022-January-10, 19:10, said:

Tom stated that he played me for my actual hand ♠ Kxxx ♥ K ♦ K98xxxx ♣ x as he thought the reason I did not open 3D was that I had four spades, and I therefore had to be 4-1-7-1. Nobody suspected him of peeking ...

[joegrue]

very interesting. when reading i clearly didnt notice the 3d bidder was a passed hand, and he was vul. so tom smartly reasoned that he respected the 3d bid enough to believe that having 4s was very likely. without knowing he was a passed hand its pretty clear to finness the club. but his reasoning makes me a believer that he made a smart play.