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1NT is 15-17. Your lead?
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lead problem
#1
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Posted 2021-October-08, 05:09
Matchpoints against a decent club pair:
1NT is 15-17. Your lead?
1NT is 15-17. Your lead?
#2
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Posted 2021-October-08, 07:47
longest strong suit so if using 4th lead ♥4. partner could have ♥A or J, or 10xx and dummy has Jxx and declarer Axx and makes wrong guess. trying to find partners suit by leading anything else is guessing...
#3
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#4
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Posted 2021-October-08, 09:12
It's a guess, so I would play with the field, and lead ♥4
#5
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Posted 2021-October-08, 11:43
I led my 4th highest heart and soon regretted it:
It is frustrating to get a 25% board for making a seemingly reasonable lead where no-one else had to lead against a NT contract from my side. Thanks to me giving him a second heart trick he easily made eight tricks by establishing the spade suit. Someone played in 1NT by East and went two off. The other three were in 2♠ making 7, 8 or 9 tricks.
This one four board round cost us a good 10%.
It is frustrating to get a 25% board for making a seemingly reasonable lead where no-one else had to lead against a NT contract from my side. Thanks to me giving him a second heart trick he easily made eight tricks by establishing the spade suit. Someone played in 1NT by East and went two off. The other three were in 2♠ making 7, 8 or 9 tricks.
This one four board round cost us a good 10%.
#6
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Posted 2021-October-08, 13:49
With every single table getting a different result on a straightforward hand, I think you're going to have to expect pretty random results.
#7
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Posted 2021-October-09, 08:58
I also would have led a small heart. I have been recommending to my bridge-playing friends the book "Golf is not a game of perfect". You won't be surprised to hear that it is not a book about bridge. But it is relevant to bridge. We have to accept that situations equivalent to the ball taking a bad bounce off the fairway into the rough will happen. Next time I'll still lead a small heart, and maybe that time partner will have J10x. 
#8
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Posted 2021-October-12, 02:16
I would not have led a heart.
When you defend 1NT all pass, especially at MP, there is very often no need to rush. If partner has help in hearts you will normally have time to switch later, but if he doesnt it will blow a trick more often than not. So with a 4 card suit headed by two honours, I think the risk/reward ratio is not in my favour.
While no lead is attractive on this hand, I rate either minor as a better MP lead than a heart.
When you defend 1NT all pass, especially at MP, there is very often no need to rush. If partner has help in hearts you will normally have time to switch later, but if he doesnt it will blow a trick more often than not. So with a 4 card suit headed by two honours, I think the risk/reward ratio is not in my favour.
While no lead is attractive on this hand, I rate either minor as a better MP lead than a heart.
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AL78 'Matchpoints against a decent club pair: 1NT is 15-17. Your lead?
++++++++++++++++++++
I rank ...
1. ♥Q (for attitude, king would ask for count/unblock).
2. ♥4 (if your agreement is that partner would unblock on ♥Q lead).
3. ♠5
4. ♣3
5. ♦J