Posted 2021-August-27, 10:43
With a spade lead, the simple line is to ruff a heart with a small trump - that is only about a 62% chance. Better is to ruff a heart with the J, but that only gets up to 68% for the 3-2 club break. The spade lead argues against trying to establish a long spade. Surely there is better? We can't squeeze east in spades and diamonds and if that is the case no double squeeze works either. The opening lead suggests that the spade queen is offside, and surely that is the case. In 7C, I can play off the ace then jack of clubs before playing the second high spade, just in case. So I do that. I return to hand with the high diamond then run the clubs playing for the double squeeze.
With a trump lead, I could try to ruff out the spades but that requires 4-3 spades and no overruff. The problem now is whether to cash spades or diamonds before running the clubs. With nothing to go on, and the guesses 50/50 as to which suit is right, I might go with door #2 and ruff a heart with the J after testing clubs. If a someone plays the 10 or 9 of clubs, I may rethink.
In 7NT, I play off the top 2 spades, then run the clubs, again playing for the double squeeze.
I am fairly confident none of this is right. But it's all I can do without more coffee.
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere."