[LBengtsson]

I played some house bridge at the weekend and this hand made me think. A good exercise in safety play or not? I will post all the hand later.

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the ♦Q was led by west. how would you play the hand? (I was defender - east. declarer is a friend, good player but not expert.)

[DavidKok]

Spoiler

We have 2 spades, 5 hearts, 1 diamond and 4 clubs from the top, for 12 tricks. We should focus on not losing more than one spade. I don't see how we can cater to 5-0 breaks, but we can handle any 4-1 break by playing low to the ace, a heart back and low to the jack. We run the risk of the hearts breaking 6-0 or 5-1 (and even then not all is lost, because we can make back our 12th trick by ruffing a diamond) but it is the lesser risk on this hand. The bidding and opening lead have done nothing to suggest a different line, so that is what I will try.

In some variations the defenders can block our clubs, but we can handle sacrificing one club trick and ruff a diamond instead to get to 12.

[Winstonm]

Ace and low to the 9 isn’t safe because of the diamond force on dummy. I would take an immediate finesse of the spade jack as this I believe only loses to 10xxx with lho. 5-0 breaks discounted.

[Cyberyeti]

Winstonm, on 2021-July-26, 12:10, said:

Ace and low to the 9 isn’t safe because of the diamond force on dummy. I would take an immediate finesse of the spade jack as this I believe only loses to 10xxx with lho. 5-0 breaks discounted.

is that less likely than ace, heart to the A and low spade to the J which only loses to ♠Qx and 5 hearts in the same hand, they might have led a heart stiff with 10xx trumps so that is less likely than it might be.

[Winstonm]

Cyberyeti, on 2021-July-26, 14:26, said:

is that less likely than ace, heart to the A and low spade to the J which only loses to ♠Qx and 5 hearts in the same hand, they might have led a heart stiff with 10xx trumps so that is less likely than it might be.

Probably not.

I'm no mathematician but my quick calculations are that 1/2 of the time when the Q is singleton it will be with east, and that would be 2 1/2 percent of the time. Good, but I doubt as good.

[nige1]

L Bengtsson 'I played some house bridge at the weekend and this hand made me think. A good exercise in safety play or not? I will post all the hand later. The ♦Q was led by west. How would you play the hand? (I was defender - east. declarer is a friend, good player but not expert.)
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CyberYeti 'Is that less likely than ace, heart to the A and low spade to the J which only loses to ♠Qx and 5 hearts in the same hand, they might have led a heart stiff with 10xx trumps so that is less likely than it might be.'
+++++++++++++++++++++
Good problem, L Bengtsson
I like CyberYeti's line: ♦A. ♠A. ♥A. ♠5 towards dummy's knave.

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[Cyberyeti]

David found that line before I did

[LBengtsson]

Winstonm, on 2021-July-26, 12:10, said:

Ace and low to the 9 isn’t safe because of the diamond force on dummy. I would take an immediate finesse of the spade jack as this I believe only loses to 10xxx with lho. 5-0 breaks discounted.

interesting line. I did not consider this

[LBengtsson]

nige1, on 2021-July-26, 15:04, said:

L Bengtsson 'I played some house bridge at the weekend and this hand made me think. A good exercise in safety play or not? I will post all the hand later. The ♦Q was led by west. How would you play the hand? (I was defender - east. declarer is a friend, good player but not expert.)
=====================
CyberYeti 'Is that less likely than ace, heart to the A and low spade to the J which only loses to ♠Qx and 5 hearts in the same hand, they might have led a heart stiff with 10xx trumps so that is less likely than it might be.'
+++++++++++++++++++++
Good problem, L Bengtsson
I like CyberYeti's line: ♦A. ♠A. ♥A. ♠5 towards dummy's knave.

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thats the line, like DavidKok, also I would have played but here is the whole hand

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that line would have lost east ruffing next trick ♥ with ♠10

my friend (good player but but not expert) playing south took first trick with ♦A quickly and then sat for a couple of minutes before tackling the ♠ suit which he did by playing ♠k first, then low to dummy capturing wests queen and ending with 13 tricks.

he asked us after hand was over was that the best way to play ♠ suit? and we all said 'no' but laughed that if we done it the expert way we all would have gone down. he then said that 3-2 break in ♠ is 68% and that is why he played it his way and made contract with overtrick! I laughed again as I could see how he is thinking. why look for obscure safety play when most of the time the contract will be made by natural play?

and yes, the expert play is not lucky to find ♥ split of 5-1 and east with last outstanding trump but if we were playing match points pairs would we have gone for our line or his line? Thinking too much about hand can be bad for bridge health...

[Winstonm]

LBengtsson, on 2021-July-28, 05:30, said:

thats the line, like DavidKok, also I would have played but here is the whole hand

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that line would have lost east ruffing next trick ♥ with ♠10

my friend (good player but but not expert) playing south took first trick with ♦A quickly and then sat for a couple of minutes before tackling the ♠ suit which he did by playing ♠k first, then low to dummy capturing wests queen and ending with 13 tricks.

he asked us after hand was over was that the best way to play ♠ suit? and we all said 'no' but laughed that if we done it the expert way we all would have gone down. he then said that 3-2 break in ♠ is 68% and that is why he played it his way and made contract with overtrick! I laughed again as I could see how he is thinking. why look for obscure safety play when most of the time the contract will be made by natural play?

and yes, the expert play is not lucky to find ♥ split of 5-1 and east with last outstanding trump but if we were playing match points pairs would we have gone for our line or his line? Thinking too much about hand can be bad for bridge health...

Also an unlucky guess - after the ace of spades, the cross to hand could have been in clubs. 😖