[lamford]

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West leads the queen of diamonds against your ambitious slam; plan the play. East will play the three, normal count, if you win the first trick in dummy.

[gszes]

trick 1 dia A
trick 2 ruff a dia small
trick 3 small club toward the T
If lho wins trick 3

assuming they return a trump
trick 4 win in hand
trick 5 heart to A
trick 6 dia K pitch heart
trick 7 club finesse
trick 8 ruff club
trick 9 ruff a heart high*
pull trumps and claim

if rho wins the trick
assuming they return a trump
trick 4 win in hand
trick 5 club A
trick 6 ruff a club
trick 7 dia A pitch a heart
trick 8 heart A
trick 9 ruff a heart high*
pull trumps and claim
* if i suspect trumps are 4-1 I can ruff the heart low it merely makes a poor contract a tad worse

If this works I apologize to opps

[smerriman]

gszes, on 2021-April-16, 19:13, said:

assuming they return a trump
trick 4 win in hand
trick 5 club A
trick 6 ruff a club
trick 7 dia A pitch a heart
trick 8 heart A
trick 9 ruff a heart high*
pull trumps and claim

I don't get it; you still have a club loser? Are you claiming down 1?

[lamford]

smerriman, on 2021-April-16, 22:28, said:

I don't get it; you still have a club loser? Are you claiming down 1?

Gszes did get trick two right, but then fell at the next hurdle.

[Cyberyeti]

lamford, on 2021-April-17, 04:24, said:

Gszes did get trick two right, but then fell at the next hurdle.

I think at the table I'd do what they did, and play for LHO to have ♣Hxx.

[Winstonm]

Win diamond and ruff diamond. Heart to the 9 could work but west can scuttle this by playing a heart honor.

Playing on clubs works if LHO has Hxx. Best return by opps is a heart which scuttles the chances of a long diamond trick.

I lead a low club at trick 3 and play for LHO to have honor third and thus establishing by ruff the club J as trick 12

[mikeh]

Winstonm, on 2021-April-17, 11:26, said:

Win diamond and ruff diamond. Heart to the 9 could work but west can scuttle this by playing a heart honor.

Playing on clubs works if LHO has Hxx. Best return by opps is a heart which scuttles the chances of a long diamond trick.

I lead a low club at trick 3 and play for LHO to have honor third and thus establishing by ruff the club J as trick 12

Even if a low heart to the 9 drove out the K or Q, and even if west held H10x(x), you can’t get 12 tricks unless you find an unlikely squeeze layout....and even then an unlikely heart return by east kills any squeeze....it’s not that unlikely if west can be trusted to give honest, readable count.

[Winstonm]

Exactly, which is why I abandoned the hearts for hoping clubs acted nicely.

[nige1]

Lamford 'West leads the queen of diamonds against your ambitious slam; plan the play. East will play the three, normal count, if you win the first trick in dummy.'
++++++++++++++++++++
Richard Pavlicek published many intriguing problems, where the best line is to run winners, hoping to read opponents' discards. Here however, when ♣ split 4-3, there seem to be promising straight-forward lines.
IMO, after winning ♦K, at trick 2, declarer should advance ♣T
If RHO has, say ♣Qxx it isn't always correct to cover. (For example, it saves declarer a guess with ♣KJx).
If LHO wins ♣T then you can finesse ♣J and ruff a ♣.
If RHO covers ♣T then you win ♣A, cash ♥A, ♦K and lead another ♣.
You have good chances when RHO has both ♣ honours.
If RHO was dealt ♣KQxx he will need nerves of steel to duck the second ♣. Although, if RHO does play low, then you should probably elect to duck, hoping to ruff out an original tripleton honour.

Edited for completeness.

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This post has been edited by nige1: 2021-April-21, 14:55

[lamford]

mikeh, on 2021-April-17, 13:54, said:

Even if a low heart to the 9 drove out the K or Q, and even if west held H10x(x), you can’t get 12 tricks unless you find an unlikely squeeze layout....and even then an unlikely heart return by east kills any squeeze....it’s not that unlikely if west can be trusted to give honest, readable count.

Au contraire, Mike. On a fairly normal layout with both sides guarding hearts and clubs you have a compound guard squeeze. Declarer ruffed a diamond and cashed five more rounds of spades. There was no defence. Declarer just played a heart to the nine in the ending. West was 2-5-4-2 with the ten of hearts.

I looked up "unlikely" in my bridge dictionary and it said "one that cannot be foreseen by most experts". West had xx QTxxx QJTx Qx and could, maybe should, have broken it up by an initial heart lead.

[lamford]

nige1, on 2021-April-17, 15:48, said:

Didn't mean to comment but, for what it's worth, would start diamond king, club ten.

A hopeless line, far below your normal high standard.

[mikeh]

lamford, on 2021-April-18, 12:35, said:

Au contraire, Mike. On a fairly normal layout with both sides guarding hearts and clubs you have a compound guard squeeze. Declarer ruffed a diamond and cashed five more rounds of spades. There was no defence. Declarer just played a heart to the nine in the ending. West was 2-5-4-2 with the ten of hearts.

I looked up "unlikely" in my bridge dictionary and it said "one that cannot be foreseen by most experts". West had xx QTxxx QJTx Qx and could, maybe should, have broken it up by an initial heart lead.

I was responding to a comment suggesting a heart to the 9 at trick 3. If you can find a squeeze, of any kind, after that start, you see much deeper into the hand than I do.

Whether the winning line is the best, on a mathematical basis, is a question I cannot answer, but to claim that finding west with 5=4 reds and the heart 10 is ‘common’ strikes me as requiring a pretty loose definition of common.

[Cyberyeti]

lamford, on 2021-April-18, 12:41, said:

A hopeless line, far below your normal high standard.

Not completely hopeless by any means, all these lines work if W has ♣Hxx or Hx and no trump higher than the 6 so 52 will do on the actual distribution (or E has ♣KQ stiff and no trump higher than the 6 or ♣KQx)

Not sure how this compares with the layouts the guard squeeze picks up

[lamford]

Cyberyeti, on 2021-April-18, 15:59, said:

Not completely hopeless by any means, all these lines work if W has ♣Hxx or Hx and no trump higher than the 6 so 52 will do on the actual distribution (or E has ♣KQ stiff and no trump higher than the 6 or ♣KQx)

Not sure how this compares with the layouts the guard squeeze picks up

Agreed, but West could well have led a trump if he had Hxx in clubs and no spade pip. He expects North to be 2-4-5-2, typically. He should have led a heart on the actual hand.

[Cyberyeti]

lamford, on 2021-April-19, 04:15, said:

Agreed, but West could well have led a trump if he had Hxx in clubs and no spade pip. He expects North to be 2-4-5-2, typically. He should have led a heart on the actual hand.

He can't know for certain his spade pip is sufficient, N could have as much as Jx, knowing 7x is enough and 5x isn't is fantasy.

[lamford]

Cyberyeti, on 2021-April-19, 04:31, said:

He can't know for certain his spade pip is sufficient, N could have as much as Jx, knowing 7x is enough and 5x isn't is fantasy.

He can know there is a risk of a club ruff in dummy, so he should lead a trump whatever his pip when he has Hxx in clubs

[Cyberyeti]

lamford, on 2021-April-19, 06:07, said:

He can know there is a risk of a club ruff in dummy, so he should lead a trump whatever his pip when he has Hxx in clubs

That holds for pretty much any club holding he might have, trump lead looks good pretty much whatever his other holdings unless he has a load of clubs and suspects partner might overruff.

[lamford]

Cyberyeti, on 2021-April-19, 07:07, said:

That holds for pretty much any club holding he might have, trump lead looks good pretty much whatever his other holdings unless he has a load of clubs and suspects partner might overruff.

Interestingly, on the actual hand, where he had 9x QTxxx QJTx Qx a trump lead was fatal as he needs to start attacking the hearts straight away, although an improbable ♣Q also beat it in an unlikely way. Sometimes bridge is just too tough.