Posted 2021-March-27, 10:18
Count winners
And, unless playing in an event in which you face time pressure, take as long as you need to mentally play the hand, making various assumptions.
Thus: in all likelihood the heart King is offside. Leading away from the King risks AJx opposite Qxxxx(x)
So assume the king is offside
If you fly with the Ace and the diamond hook loses, they may play 2 more rounds of trump. Of course you’re probably ok then, since you can tackle spades and usually survive (if LHO covers your spade from hand, duck)
But I’d play it differently.
That spade holding is very powerful.you can generate a lot of tricks in that suit.
I’d duck the heart. Actually, I’d play the 9, but it’s the same effect.
Say Rho continues hearts (an error, but so what?).
I play a card from hand.if LHO follows, I win in hand and lead the spade Queen.
If LHO covers, I win, come to my hand with the 10, and draw the last trump before playing the spade Jack. If need be I can ruff a spade and then claim with 4 trump in hand, 4 spades, 2 clubs and a diamond.
If Lho fails on the second heart, vanishingly unlikely since leading a stiff trump is ludicrous, I win the second trick in dummy, pull trump and go after spades
If the spade hook loses, then they may foolishly lead a third trump if he has it, or switch to a minor. If a club, win in hand, unblock the spades, cross in trump and run the spades
If a diamond comes back, spurn the finesse...we’ve lost two tricks but we’re going to score 4 trump, 4 spades, and 3 top minors, so the finesse is a practice finesse that risks losing a trick and almost never wins one....the only time it’s necessary is 5-1 spades, but it’s very unlikely spades are 5-1.
If the spade Queen holds, against competent opps it’s likely that RHO has ducked...LHO should usually cover from Kx(x) and also from other holdings. But I don’t care if I take another finesse, it loses and they score a ruff. I’m still cold. 3 spades, 4 hearts and three minor tops.
In fairness, there’s a bit more to the analysis but it’s easier to think this through than to type all of the low-frequency contingencies (I don’t type quickly)
Here’s a tip to improve your card play:
Slow down at trick one. Especially in a team game where one usually has some time. Now, if you’re in 3N with 10 top tricks, don’t sweat looking for 11....in other words, take your time when the contract is not cold, but play quickly when it is, otherwise you’ll take too much time and won’t have enough to go slow on the important hands
Once you’ve identified a tentative line of play, okay it out in your head, and assume that finesses lose and/or suits break badly. If your line survives those assumptions, go ahead and play it that way....as you get better at this, you may opt for the next step anyway but until you’re comfortable with this way of thinking, if your initial line makes despite a bad lie of the cards, I’d suggest taking that line
But if,as is often the case, your initial line fails on your assumptions, step back mentally, to trick one...before you’ve called for any card...don’t play to trick on3 and then tbink...it may be too late
Consider another line...if need be, consider a third....often you can’t come up with a sure line, but you’ll often find one that works better than your initial thought
Ever watch top players on vugraph?
We can see all the cards, and the line is ‘obvious’, yet declarer, on a simple hand, is taking forever to play. Why?
Because they’ve identified the ‘obvious’ line and are thinking about what could go wrong. Having identified the bad things that could happen, they’re thinking about how to cater to that, without creating a situation in which they fail on more normal breaks.
I was fortunate, almost 30 years ago, to form a partnership with a player much better than I was. It took me almost two years to adjust to his glacial pace of play, as defender and declarer. I finally internalized that his approach was one reason he was better than me....he’d see the same ‘obvious’ line and then take several minutes to work out alternatives. Much of the time he’d then take that obvious line, but often he’d have found a more effective approach. My own game improved significantly once I started doing the same. One way to train yourself (and to improve your visualization) is to try this way of thinking as dummy. This is far easier online than in real life, since online you get to see partner’s hand.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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