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Mildly interesting wrong slam

#1 User is offline   pilowsky 

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Posted 2020-August-25, 04:35

Not entirely sure about this one but it came down to a 5 card ending that my partner - the North robot did not find.
As usual, I was pretty kind.
Is this misplayed? Or is it a reasonable guess?
Here's the 5 card ending just before the train-wreck.
It's South to lead and make 4 more tricks for 990 and 6 IMPs: or not for -10.8.



Of course, as someone commented earlier "my bidding does need a ton of work" - I am in the wrong contract.
Here's the full deal.
Here's the hand as played

On the plus side, it is on the practice table in Prime so only the robot's pride is at stake.
Fortuna Fortis Felix
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#2 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2020-August-25, 06:43

a) 7 is better than 6N, 1N-4N-6 (or via a blackwood response if that's how you bid if accepting the invite over 1N-4N) would at least give you an easy 1010.
b) you can make it (either by way of a correct club guess or just by exiting with AQ) but not sure you should
c) the lead is interesting, I think you should expect an honour at least in the blacks with E, but nothing to say K or J or both

Our auction would be

1N-2
2-3(totally artificial, hearts agreed, slammish)
4(cue, not 3433, not broke)-4(KC)
5(2 without)-5N (interested in grand, but need more)
6(K was denied when I bid 4, I have the Q)-6

Unfortunately can't count 13 as don't know about the 5th heart
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#3 User is offline   Stephen Tu 

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Posted 2020-August-25, 09:35

It's a reasonable line, it is essentially playing for one of the black kings to be onside for 76% or so, plus the chance of the CJ being singleton/doubleton. I don't immediately see anything clearly better against best defense. But I personally would have made it, playing West for either SK or CJ, which is mathematically equivalent against best defense, but is better against non-perfect defenders who might err by popping CK as West rather than smooth duck not holding the J. I would also usually do the club play way earlier (like trick 2) to make the CK pop error somewhat more likely as the defense would have less info about which tricks I have. Good players seeing the Qt in dummy and declarer surely having the ace should find the duck pretty easily though so this works only against really bad defenders (which arguably include GIB who assumes you are guessing right). It has a better chance of inducing the pop at MP where West has to worry that you are stealing the 13th trick rather than trying to generate the 12th.


Pretty clear to use stayman of course.

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#4 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2020-August-29, 20:47

I admit I would start low toward the club TEN mainly because a BOT is my LHO. The BOTS ae totally unaware of the kinds of demons we have running around in our heads so they have a tendency to GIVE UP when they seem doomed opposite best play. That means LHO will RISE when they have both black kings (being doomed to a show up squeeze when we first lead to the T then rise with the ace on a club return and cash the dia. In theory they should insert the J with the club J and spade K but that position is just a tad deeper and I have no clue how far the "thinking" goes. Lho might also rise with only the club K though that defense might be too weak even for the BOTS.

IF my first play to the club T fails I would use the above "logic" to play rho for the club K. Minus the "give up" positions, there are 11 cases of rho holding the club KJ and only 7 where LHO holds only the spade K or the club K. See what I mean about demons?
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#5 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2020-September-02, 23:44

View PostCyberyeti, on 2020-August-25, 06:43, said:

Unfortunately can't count 13 as don't know about the 5th heart

Hasn't 5-card majors reached England yet? :P

I don't know much about bots, but as gszes says any human will be tempted to play K if he has it, so low to the 10 is better.
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#6 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2020-September-03, 02:32

View PostFluffy, on 2020-September-02, 23:44, said:

Hasn't 5-card majors reached England yet? :P

I don't know much about bots, but as gszes says any human will be tempted to play K if he has it, so low to the 10 is better.


It has but I was bidding with the equivalent of our system and a strong notrump, and that is a notrump shape and was what was opened at the table.

We don't play 5M anyway, although we'd actually kick off with 1 because the hand is too good for a 12-14 1N and would bid the grand without a problem as we'd know about the 5th heart after the rebid over 2N.
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