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The hand from hell to lead from

#1 User is offline   AL78 

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Posted 2020-March-13, 07:03

This hand came up with my novice friend.

You hold as South:

3
KT32
AQ864
AT4



All vulnerable, matchpoint scoring. What is your lead?
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#2 User is offline   barmar 

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Posted 2020-March-13, 08:22

I lead a trump.

#3 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2020-March-13, 08:41

Ace of Clubs
Alderaan delenda est
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#4 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2020-March-13, 09:29

Also leading a trump
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#5 User is offline   KingCovert 

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Posted 2020-March-13, 11:52

The 3 is, I think, an easy lead if you weigh the right considerations. 1NT over the double is not the same as 1NT without the double. You should expect that dummy is something like 2425 or 2524. Declarer doesn't know this when they bid 2, but, after the suit preference, it's pretty clear. 1NT with a singleton diamond is lunacy, and correcting to spades is also silly if they had 3 diamonds. So, it's super limited.

So, we have nice diamonds, we need to prevent dummy from ruffing any of them out. Partner is marked for seemingly 5 spades. So, the hand should go spade lead, probably won by declarer/dummy, diamond switch by declarer, you win it, you then try to break hearts or clubs as appropriate (look at dummy) and try get partner in to collect the last trump in dummy prior to the ruff of any diamonds by dummy.
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#6 User is offline   AL78 

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Posted 2020-March-13, 18:17

My friend led a low diamond (ugh, I've told her before not to underlead aces). The full deal:



2 ended up just making. If she finds the A lead, it goes (at best) ace, ruff, low club, ruff, club, ruff, heart, and South eventually makes their king, two down. Nobody defending a spade contract found that defence, so all declarers in 2 or 3 made eight tricks. One North managed to make 3NT, goodness knows how, or even how they got there.
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#7 User is offline   dsLawsd 

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Posted 2020-March-13, 23:50

Partner seems to have a singleton diamond- so A diamonds unless you are italian and then the Club ace is it...
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#8 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2020-March-14, 05:33

View PostdsLawsd, on 2020-March-13, 23:50, said:

unless you are italian and then the Club ace is it...


Not sure what this is supposed to mean...
Alderaan delenda est
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#9 User is offline   AL78 

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Posted 2020-March-14, 06:40

View PostdsLawsd, on 2020-March-13, 23:50, said:

Partner seems to have a singleton diamond- so A diamonds unless you are italian and then the Club ace is it...


South doesn't know North has a singleton diamond at the point they make the opening lead. If anything, it might be more likely West has the singleton, so I can see why some are advocating a spade lead.
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#10 User is online   pescetom 

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Posted 2020-March-14, 07:22

View Posthrothgar, on 2020-March-14, 05:33, said:

Not sure what this is supposed to mean...


Me neither.
If it was an italian table, West would not bid 1NT and then things are quite different...
NS might find 3. If not, S would no longer have reason to lead .
Still tricky to find the killer lead A though.
I'm surprised that a small did not set the contract all the same - maybe S hung on to hearts for some reason.
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#11 User is offline   bluenikki 

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Posted 2020-March-14, 08:16

View PostAL78, on 2020-March-13, 18:17, said:

My friend led a low diamond (ugh, I've told her before not to underlead aces). The full deal:



2 ended up just making. If she finds the A lead, it goes (at best) ace, ruff, low club, ruff, club, ruff, heart, and South eventually makes their king, two down. Nobody defending a spade contract found that defence, so all declarers in 2 or 3 made eight tricks. One North managed to make 3NT, goodness knows how, or even how they got there.


Underleading AQ when opener is on your right is much worse than Ax. Leading the ace into opener from AQ is also terrible.
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#12 User is offline   bluenikki 

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Posted 2020-March-14, 08:20

View Posthrothgar, on 2020-March-14, 05:33, said:

Not sure what this is supposed to mean...


Refers, I believe, to a famous/notorious lead by Pabis-Ticci in the 1968 Olympics final. (Partner has the club singleton, not diamond.)
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#13 User is offline   bluenikki 

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Posted 2020-March-14, 08:23

View PostAL78, on 2020-March-13, 18:17, said:

My friend led a low diamond (ugh, I've told her before not to underlead aces). The full deal:



2 ended up just making. If she finds the A lead, it goes (at best) ace, ruff, low club, ruff, club, ruff, heart, and South eventually makes their king, two down. Nobody defending a spade contract found that defence, so all declarers in 2 or 3 made eight tricks. One North managed to make 3NT, goodness knows how, or even how they got there.


Whoever told your friend not to advance 2 in that situation did a terrible disservice.
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#14 User is offline   AL78 

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Posted 2020-March-14, 08:31

View Postbluenikki, on 2020-March-14, 08:23, said:

Whoever told your friend not to advance 2 in that situation did a terrible disservice.


My friend was South, she did consider that North could have bid their club suit. That might work out badly if EW still end up in 2, since South might now lead A and another, giving declarer a trick.
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#15 User is online   mikeh 

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Posted 2020-March-14, 10:59

View PostKingCovert, on 2020-March-13, 11:52, said:

The 3 is, I think, an easy lead if you weigh the right considerations. 1NT over the double is not the same as 1NT without the double. You should expect that dummy is something like 2425 or 2524. Declarer doesn't know this when they bid 2, but, after the suit preference, it's pretty clear. 1NT with a singleton diamond is lunacy, and correcting to spades is also silly if they had 3 diamonds. So, it's super limited.

So, we have nice diamonds, we need to prevent dummy from ruffing any of them out. Partner is marked for seemingly 5 spades. So, the hand should go spade lead, probably won by declarer/dummy, diamond switch by declarer, you win it, you then try to break hearts or clubs as appropriate (look at dummy) and try get partner in to collect the last trump in dummy prior to the ruff of any diamonds by dummy.

I am not arguing about the lead as such. I came late to the thread so my opinion is tainted by seeing the hand. I do diapsagreecwith your analysis of likely shape for responder. While some 5422 is possible, IMO it is more likely that LHO has 2=3 in the pointed suits.

I assume MPs scoring, but the argument is similar at imps.

Opener does not promise 5=5, and 5=4 likely plays as well or better in the 5=2 than the 4=3, should opener be 5=4

Plus, and more important at MPs than imps, spades, when making, will often outscore diamonds

Finally, and important at both forms of scoring, 1N is typically a constructive bid, and 2D could be a fairly strong hand, while opener would usually raise notrump with, say, a 15 count 5242, he may have a decent 5=5, unwilling to commit to notrump, or even a decent 5431 hand. 2S gives him a chance, having shown diamonds, to invite game.

Thus responder should, IMO, almost always take the false preference to spades with 2=3 in the pointed suits

This doesn’t, in and of itself, negate a trump nor does it make the diamond A lead an obvious choice, but I do think that the spade is nit as clear as you suggest.

Tbh, and bearing in mind my caveat above, I suspect I’d lead a low heart. Partner is marked with some values, since we’re defending 2S, and I’d be hoping either for the A in partner)s hand or the Queen, with the Ace in dummy. Since the heart lead is a disaster, at least I can’t be accused of masterminding, lol.

FWIW, I detest the 1N bid, I’m indifferent about north’s pass due to having soft values (and not many of them), and would not have introduced that weak, short diamond suit, as opener, especially since South will almost always hold some length/strength there and I have little (basically no) game interest. This is not a good 15 on the auction. Were I AKJ9x xx A109x Kx, I’d like my hand quite a bit more, and would bid 2D.
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#16 User is offline   KingCovert 

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Posted 2020-March-14, 11:54

Yeah Mikeh, seems like a reasonable analysis. I'm definitely not so familiar with constructive sequences in competition when playing something like 2/1.

I do agree though, this auction is pretty nonsense. Better players will make the wrong lead to this layout, but ultimately slaughter players who bid like EW
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#17 User is offline   StevenG 

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Posted 2020-March-14, 12:01

Please remember that AL78 is English and these posts are (implicitly) about Acol. 1NT is the normal response on the West hand. Some might bid 2, but with no distribution to speak of and a reasonable probability of a 4 card spade suit opposite, it doesn't look much fun to me.
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#18 User is offline   johnu 

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Posted 2020-March-14, 13:35

View Postbluenikki, on 2020-March-14, 08:20, said:

Refers, I believe, to a famous/notorious lead by Pabis-Ticci in the 1968 Olympics final. (Partner has the club singleton, not diamond.)

I don't remember the entire hand, but opening leader had ace fifth of diamonds, and ace 4th of clubs with nothing in the auction to suggest what to lead. The opening lead was ace of clubs from the 4 card suit instead of ace of diamonds from the 5 card suit. The lead was very successful.
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#19 User is online   pescetom 

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Posted 2020-March-14, 13:37

View PostStevenG, on 2020-March-14, 12:01, said:

Please remember that AL78 is English and these posts are (implicitly) about Acol. 1NT is the normal response on the West hand. Some might bid 2, but with no distribution to speak of and a reasonable probability of a 4 card spade suit opposite, it doesn't look much fun to me.


That's why it is normal to specify "(Acol bidding)" and/or describe the 1 opening.
Most of us understood but no reason why we should.
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#20 User is offline   bluenikki 

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Posted 2020-March-14, 13:58

View Postjohnu, on 2020-March-14, 13:35, said:

I don't remember the entire hand, but opening leader had ace fifth of diamonds, and ace 4th of clubs with nothing in the auction to suggest what to lead. The opening lead was ace of clubs from the 4 card suit instead of ace of diamonds from the 5 card suit. The lead was very successful.


2 down in 4 major, vs making 5 at other table
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