[thepossum]

 hrothgar, on 2021-June-15, 05:38, said:

Few high level comments:

1. I agree that a whole bunch of people have been jumping on CONVID denialists, anti-vaxxers, and the like

These people are sociopathic loons, and during a pandemic like COVID, they are both incredibly dangerous to have around and do enormous economic damage.

Thankyou for actually addressing my points

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2. I also agree that the whole lab leak hypothesis was treated with enormous skepticism when folks like Tom Cotton and Mike Pompeo wer advancing it last year. Right now, it seems to be experiencing something of a Renaissance. I personally doubt that we will ever know with real certainty what happened. The one thing that I do know is the there is a reason that the story of the "Boy Who Cried Wolf" has persisted for thousands of years. (And, there is a reason why this story got new legs when a new and more credible administration entered office)

For almost 16-18 months????? anyone who dared even question anything in any media, any forum was jumped on and viciously attacked. Even silenced etc. Also curious how everything changes once the terrible Pre trump was removed by similar forces

It has not looked good for many in science, the level of politicisation, lack of scepticism, and the attacks against alternative points of view. Come to think of it its not just Covid where those similar groups behave in such a way. Silencing alternative points of view, often well thought out and considered etc. It has been a disgrace to any involved in it

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3. It's far from clear how many variants of COVID will be able to emerge. I have heard claims that geometry of the COVID spike proteins are only capable of a fairly limited set of changes, so, with luck we'll (eventually) have them all under control. Until then, life is going to be pretty shitty. I had been hoping to be vacationing abroad in late fall / winter. Things are starting to look more doubtful, especially given my typical travel destinations.

I find the issue with the the multiple variants, the lack of effectiveness of the vaccines something that many intelligent thinking people knew was going to happen anyway. But we would have been silenced for not knowing what we were talking about.

And if others can not see the "conspiracy" of interests between media, techs, etc etc they must be blind and dangerous to the world

In conclusion to your points and others and all the attacks here and elsewhere and stresses here and everywhere in my life, simply for being an intelligent thoughtful observer and analyst. Do we still have democracy anywhere. Do we still have the right to ask intelligent questions, express informed opinions or do we truly have technocracy/technofascism or some other variant

I hate to say it but some of the attacks on various forums (please not directed at anyone) have some similar hallmarks and fingerprints, as do my posts no doubt. Very easy to wind me up and find out who I am anywhere

[hrothgar]

 thepossum, on 2021-June-18, 01:16, said:

I find the issue with the the multiple variants, the lack of effectiveness of the vaccines something that many intelligent thinking people knew was going to happen anyway. But we would have been silenced for not knowing what we were talking about.

This is where we are going to start to disagree.

1. The vaccines were incredibly effective against against the original strain of the virus. A 95% effectiveness rate for a vaccine is an incredible success. It is certainly true that - in absolutely terms - some of the vaccines are not as effective against some of the new strains. However, relatively to most vaccines that have been developed in the past they are still quite effective.

The issue with COVID is that it spreads incredibly easily, it has a whole bunch of long term after effects, places enormous strain on health care systems, and kills a bunch of folks. As such, it can still be incredibly costly even with relatively effective vaccines.

2. I follow COVID pretty closely. And I haven't seen anyone silenced for making claims that the virus is going to mutate, current vaccines might become less effective, boosters might be necessary, ... (And this holds true going back to the start of the pandemic)

The people who get silenced (and rightfully so) are the ones pushing inane conspiracy theories

1. The vaccines will make you magnetic
2. The vaccines are much more dangerous than COVID
3. The vaccines contain microchips to track you

To me, at least, it feels like you're conflating these two issues.

[pilowsky]

The attitudes of Australians towards vaccination was studied recently and discussed on the Australian Broadcasting Commission (our free government-funded independent - slightly left-leaning - TV and Radio broadcaster).
You can read the transcript here: https://ab.co/3qpb7EE
For me, the most interesting feature was not the bias against vaccination amongst more conservative Australians - present but not as much as in other parts of the world - but the number of people willing to say that they thought that vaccination was "very safe".
Less than half (44%) of the population were willing to say that COVID-19 vaccines were "very safe" compared with 35% who were only willing to accept that vaccination is "mostly safe".
Several factors appear to contribute to this phenomenon.
There exists in Australia a dislike for funding research of any kind.
Sport yes. Medical research not so much.
Ask the average Australian if they would like to give money to support curiosity-driven research (into anything) or if they want to support an athlete to go to the Olympics. It's a no-brainer.
Consequently, there is a distrust of science which is fostered by politicians who play to the feelings of their constituents. Natural, but not helpful when science becomes essential to survival.
Fear of injections maybe another.
Oddly, these same people are entirely comfortable with driving cars, eating fatty food, smoking, and (my favourite neurotoxin) watching television.

With respect to non-COVID vaccines, vaccine-related unwellness is common - although death is not.
On the other hand, death resulting from the diseases that we commonly get immunised against is not as frequent as death (and yet to be determined) long-term sequelae as it is with COVID-19.

[Gilithin]

 pilowsky, on 2021-June-22, 06:29, said:

Less than half (44%) of the population were willing to say that COVID-19 vaccines were "very safe" compared with 35% who were only willing to accept that vaccination is "mostly safe".

This seems to show a fundamental misunderstanding of science and the way medical statistics work. What precisely does the term "very safe" even mean in this context? If I ask you whether a single shot Russian Roulette contest in a 6-shooter was "very safe", most likely very few would answer "Yes". But if the choice is a binary one between that and certain death, the Russian Roulette starts to look highly attractive and lowers out risk significantly.

Vaccines are not "very safe" in as much as that there are side effects, and in rare cases these can be quite serious. But they lower the risks for the vast majority of people and, equally importantly, for everyone else in their immediate social circle. It is the comparative risk that is important and if a major broadcaster such as ABC is actively encouraging its viewers to ask the wrong question, I see this as something of an issue and one that is likely to increase rather than diminish the current rise of vaccine hesitancy.

[kenberg]

Could there be polls, or other research, to get at just how people decide on whether to take the vaccine?
"Do you believe it is safe" sounds like a good question but I am not so sure.
My honest answer would be "Of course I don't know". I decide who I will listen to. I don't regard any source of information as infallible. Any source can be optimistic or pessimistic, or have a political or financial agenda, and so on. Still, I have to choose what to do.
It seemed that all in all, there was a substantial effort to get vaccines available and a substantial effort to get it right. I decided to place my bet on that.
I got vaccinated pretty early on (I'm old enough so I could get it soon and I got it). Becky is a bit younger and when it was available to her she was at first scheduled for the J and J vaccine but then it developed that if she were to wait a week she could get the Pfizer, and she decided to go with that. This seemed right to me. Why? Well, they had some number that in some manner evaluated it. The number for J and J was 70 something, the number for Pfizer was 90 something. Without getting into details, and we didn't get into details, 90 something sounded better than 70 something. So Becky waited a week and got the Pfizer.

The point here is that neither Becky nor I went on some massive search program to read all of the literature so that we could make a fully informed decision. I expect most people went at this in roughly the same manner as we did. But it could be useful to know just what people did.

I know that some people, including some doc who testified before the Ohio legislature, came to believe the vaccine will make you magnetic. Ok, she is somewhere between a nut and a moron. Still, even with nuts and morons, it could be useful to know just how she and others came to this belief. But, mainly, I think it would be more useful to learn how sane people decided to not take the vaccine. I expect that some people who would appear to be sane and of normal intelligence still decided against taking the vaccine. I would like to know how that decision was made.

I think a place to start is by acknowledging that my decision to take the vaccine was not based on thorough research. Few decisions are. I confidently placed a bet on what seemed right. So how did a sane and normally intelligent person decided against it?

Example: When I went for the shot they had me list my medications (When I was 70 my list of medications was empty. I am no longer 70). There was a brief delay while the woman who was to give me the shot checked to see if my medications presented any problems They didn't, But I have spoken with people who have told me, I believe honestly, that their doctor is concerned about whether it would be safe given the medication that they are taking.

[thepossum]

Deleted

Enough problems in life without arguing here for a while

It may have nothing to do with this forum or any other but I am currently engaged in defending myself against a full on attack against my person, my business, my professionalism, my character and everything

Chat later 🙂

[Gilithin]

 kenberg, on 2021-June-22, 08:34, said:

I know that some people, including some doc who testified before the Ohio legislature, came to believe the vaccine will make you magnetic.

Here is another man who was clearly the victim of vaccination. I would suggest that this effect is the origin of the Ohio woman's claims.

[kenberg]

 thepossum, on 2021-June-22, 09:03, said:

Deleted

Enough problems in life without arguing here for a while

It may have nothing to do with this forum or any other but I am currently engaged in defending myself against a full on attack against my person, my business, my professionalism, my character and everything

Chat later 🙂

It's in the nature of online chat we don't know each other all that well. This sounds serious, obviously, and, equally obviously, I will stay in ignorance of the details. But when it passes, as I hope it does, I will be happy to see you back.

[Winstonm]

 Gilithin, on 2021-June-22, 10:48, said:

Here is another man who was clearly the victim of vaccination. I would suggest that this effect is the origin of the Ohio woman's claims.

I wonder if Covid isn't evolution's way of eliminating the weak-minded.

[johnu]

 Winstonm, on 2021-June-22, 12:50, said:

I wonder if Covid isn't evolution's way of eliminating the weak-minded.

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The government building was closed on Friday as a precaution. It reopened Monday but officials didn't implement a mask requirement, instead keeping them optional.

For a Confederate state, Florida is doing ok at getting its population vaccinated with 44% fully vaccinated, 28th best in the USA. Still 28th best??? is well below average. With all the anti-maskers, anti-vaxxers running around getting infected with Covid and then spreading it to unsuspecting victims, it's no surprise that this fatal outbreak happened in Florida, and absolutely expected that there would be no mask requirement in anti-masker, anti-vaxxer Republican governor DeSantis's state.

[barmar]

 johnu, on 2021-June-22, 15:17, said:

For a Confederate state, Florida is doing ok at getting its population vaccinated with 44% fully vaccinated, 28th best in the USA. Still 28th best??? is well below average.

I wonder if this is because a significant portion of the Florida population is snowbirds from the north, especially New York, who don't share the conservative attitudes of most southerners. My elderly mother normally just spends November to May in Florida, but has been stuck there since fall of 2019. (Unfortunately, her health has gotten worse, so it's not clear she'll be able to travel back home again.) She had nothing good to say about DeSantis's handling of the pandemic -- she had to travel several hours to get her vaccinations.

[thepossum]

 kenberg, on 2021-June-22, 11:26, said:

It's in the nature of online chat we don't know each other all that well. This sounds serious, obviously, and, equally obviously, I will stay in ignorance of the details. But when it passes, as I hope it does, I will be happy to see you back.

Thx Ken and all. Its a very difficult situation after a long career and a long time in business to have deal with the situation I have been placed in through no fault of my own
I am having to spend an inordinate amount f time to protect a name I have worked my whole life to build up. 20 years of business contacts and legacy and current projects potentially compromised. etc
I don't have the resources (of any kind) to deal with such a situation
To face so many threats to my personal, professional and business reputation due to one inconsiderate party is rather upsetting
Definitely no time or energy or emotional resources to engage in any half decent passionate debate on anything

Chat later

Thanks again

[kenberg]

 barmar, on 2021-June-22, 21:57, said:

I wonder if this is because a significant portion of the Florida population is snowbirds from the north, especially New York, who don't share the conservative attitudes of most southerners. My elderly mother normally just spends November to May in Florida, but has been stuck there since fall of 2019. (Unfortunately, her health has gotten worse, so it's not clear she'll be able to travel back home again.) She had nothing good to say about DeSantis's handling of the pandemic -- she had to travel several hours to get her vaccinations.

I was wondering along the same lines. Once again we need to look at data with care.

Here is a recent article in the NYT:

https://www.nytimes....cine-doses.html


they list both "at least one dose" and "fully vaccinated", but additionally they restrict the data to age 18+. Probably the 18+ segment of the population in Fl is larger than average, and almost certainly the 65+ is a lot larger.

Sticking with 18+ we see that Fl does (slightly) better than MI in at least one dose, but not as well in fully vaccinated.

Of course now we are trying to get those younger than 18 vaccinated as well, but I am not sure how it is going. I assume that a 16 year old can just get vaccinated on his/her own, but maybe a 12 year old needs parental permission? We could spend a lot of time getting this all straight but it will probably change in another week or two.


I have an ex-wife living somewhere around Sarasota, I might ask my daughter if her mother got the vaccine. Or maybe I won't, it's none of my business. But I hope she would not have to travel several hours to get it. that sounds crazy. I assume that your mother is not living on an island in the Everglades.

[Winstonm]

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Nearly all of the people who died from COVID-19 in the U.S. in recent weeks were not vaccinated, the Associated Press reports. Just 150 of the more than 18,000 COVID-19 deaths in May were among fully vaccinated people, about 0.8 percent, according to an analysis by the outlet.

[johnu]

 Winstonm, on 2021-June-24, 12:17, said:

Quote

Nearly all of the people who died from COVID-19 in the U.S. in recent weeks were not vaccinated, the Associated Press reports. Just 150 of the more than 18,000 COVID-19 deaths in May were among fully vaccinated people, about 0.8 percent, according to an analysis by the outlet.

I found a paragraph in that article especially interesting

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The preventable deaths will continue, experts predict, with unvaccinated pockets of the nation experiencing outbreaks in the fall and winter. Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle, said modeling suggests the nation will hit 1,000 deaths per day again next year.

1000 deaths per day on average!?!?!?

With more virulent and possibly/probably deadly variants like Delta, and the newly discovered Delta Plus (and who knows what other mutations could emerge 6 months from now), unvaccinated anti-vaxxers are putting the rest of America at risk. Maybe now is the time to make refusing a Covid vaccine a pre-existing condition in health plans.

[pilowsky]

Modelling also suggested that all through the 1960s and 70's we were on the brink of nuclear war (5 seconds to midnight).
Information filtered through journalists or politicians needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, mustard, herbs, spices, etc.

[y66]

From Where Did the Coronavirus Come From? What We Already Know Is Troubling. by Zeynep Tufekci at NYT:

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But a better path forward is one of true global cooperation based on mutual benefit and reciprocity. Despite the current dissembling, we should assume that the Chinese government also doesn’t want to go through this again — especially given that SARS, too, started there.

This means putting the public interest before personal ambitions and acknowledging that despite the wonders of its power, biomedical research also holds dangers.

To do this, government officials and scientists need to look at the big picture: Seek comity and truth instead of just avoiding embarrassment. Develop a framework that goes beyond blaming China, since the issues raised are truly global. And realize that the next big thing can simply mean taking great care with a lot of small details.

[Winstonm]

 pilowsky, on 2021-June-24, 15:17, said:

Modelling also suggested that all through the 1960s and 70's we were on the brink of nuclear war (5 seconds to midnight).
Information filtered through journalists or politicians needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, mustard, herbs, spices, etc.

I am fully vaccinated and will get boosters as needed so I say let the rugged individuals who distrust science and governments die if they so choose.

[jillybean]

 Winstonm, on 2021-June-25, 12:24, said:

I am fully vaccinated and will get boosters as needed so I say let the rugged individuals who distrust science and governments die if they so choose.

And those rugged individuals who chose not to be vaccinated should also find and fund their own ICU stays.

[Winstonm]

 jillybean, on 2021-June-25, 13:00, said:

And those rugged individuals who chose not to be vaccinated should also find and fund their own ICU stays.

I am more inclined to encourage them to solicit the prayers of their favorite brand of witch doctor/pastor/priest and place a go fund me page on Facebook