[Cyberyeti]

cherdano, on 2020-July-28, 04:00, said:

Still waiting for Cyberyeti to tell us about ONE example there the UK government made such a claim.
If that's too high a bar, maybe you can tell us about ONE expert who said such a thing?

If you can't, maybe next time don't immediately get defensive and claim you are absolutely right because EVERY expert and THE UK GOVERNMENT says so when someone disagrees with you?

I do not have recordings of the daily press conferences or of the experts that radio 5 had on, but it was said many times that you were MUCH more contagious if symptomatic, I listened to almost all of those while they were happening.

COVID is fairly infectious, but the 1/10 or so of that rate for the people without symptoms does not to me justify saying that you're highly infectious while without symptoms. The pictre is confused by asymptomatic meaning different things to different people depending whether they're differentiating between people who never get symptoms and people who haven't got them yet.

On another subject - I don't know how many people have done a Coronavirus home swab test, Ipsos/MORI working with Imperial college asked me to take one (I presume to try to estimate how many asymptomatic cases are out there). I thought I'd relate my experience.

They contact you by letter asking if you'll participate.

If you say yes, they send out your testing kit which consists of:
Sample tube and swab
A piece of cardboard that folds into a box
A plastic bag with a sticky strip to seal
Stickers for box, bag and tube
Detailed instruction booklet
Covering letter, giving the url for the post test survey
Sticky label for sealing the box

The instructions are to book your courier online, then take your sample for 8am on the day you booked the appointment for, as the courier slot will be 0800-1800, and you won't have any idea when it is until the courier leaves the depot that morning. You refrigerate the sample till the courier arrives. In my case there was nothing on the website indicating when the guy was coming (0732-0932 despite all the literature saying the slot didn't start till 8) till 0816 and the courier was with me at 0822 so planning was impossible. If you live alone and are working, this system will not work for you, but I guess many of their clientele will have symptoms and thus be at home.

You get a maybe 10-15cm piece of plastic with 2cm cylindrical cotton bud on the end to take the sample
The tube is shorter than that, you take the sample, put the swab in the tube and then there is a weakened point where the swab breaks off to the length of the tube and you then put the lid on the tube.

There are detailed instructions about handwashing and keeping the swab contamination free

To take the sample, you rub the swab repeatedly on your tonsils and the back of your throat. Then up each nostril. The former (as you are warned it might) made me gag almost as soon as the swab touched, the latter gave me a sneezing fit, I hope I got enough of a sample to be useful.

Then you put a sticker on the tube, seal the tube in the bag, put a sticker on the bag, put the bag in the box, put a sticker on the box and stick it in the fridge.

The courier arrives with an icebox into which you toss the box without the courier touching it.

Edit: I've now done the survey which is all multiple choice, there is nowhere to really give any free text input

[PeterAlan]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-July-29, 02:40, said:

On another subject - I don't know how many people have done a Coronavirus home swab test, Ipsos/MORI working with Imperial college asked me to take one (I presume to try to estimate how many asymptomatic cases are out there). I thought I'd relate my experience.

Thank you for relating this, in particular your experience with the swab. I too am taking part (I was able to get online to do the survey questionnaire when I booked the courier), and the courier (and hence my self-test) is due tomorrow.

[Cyberyeti]

PeterAlan, on 2020-July-29, 05:37, said:

Thank you for relating this, in particular your experience with the swab. I too am taking part (I was able to get online to do the survey questionnaire when I booked the courier), and the courier (and hence my self-test) is due tomorrow.

One thing that was slightly odd, the courier said "There's no name on the packet" which there wasn't, and asked me to hold the box as he wasn't allowed to touch it, and wrote my house number on it. Not sure if I missed an instruction.

Also this looks like a massive exercise as the tracking said "4 deliveries before yours" and the courier was only 100 yards away on the map, so I wonder if they're heavily hitting a few selected postcode areas.

Another thing to add, I tried without success to find out yesterday when in the day the collection was likely to be, by phoning the number in the booklet. They gave me Yodel's phone number, which was utterly useless as Yodel have moved all their support online for the duration of the pandemic. You have to livechat online to get anywhere, although in the end that was useless also.

[PeterAlan]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-July-29, 09:38, said:

One thing that was slightly odd, the courier said "There's no name on the packet" which there wasn't, and asked me to hold the box as he wasn't allowed to touch it, and wrote my house number on it. Not sure if I missed an instruction.

I've just done the test, and had similar reactions to yours, but should have done enough for a decent sample. The most awkward part of the whole exercise was the origami required to assemble the return box.

Regarding the box, I don't think you missed anything - the only instruction is to add the security seal. I'm now waiting for the courier, and given your experience probably won't bother to try and find out when that will be.

[Cyberyeti]

PeterAlan, on 2020-July-30, 01:34, said:

I've just done the test, and had similar reactions to yours, but should have done enough for a decent sample. The most awkward part of the whole exercise was the origami required to assemble the return box.

Regarding the box, I don't think you missed anything - the only instruction is to add the security seal. I'm now waiting for the courier, and given your experience probably won't bother to try and find out when that will be.

By now, if you go to yodel online, the info should be up on the tracking section of their website

[PeterAlan]

My courier's apparently Menzies Distribution rather than Yodel. They texted me at 9:30 today to say they'll come between 11:00 and 15:00 Whilst better than nothing - and reassuring that it's going to happen - the text was too late for me to change when I took the test, leaves little time to do anything before the time window, and provides relatively limited narrowing of the overall timeframe. Time to stop moaning!

[Cyberyeti]

PeterAlan, on 2020-July-30, 03:24, said:

My courier's apparently Menzies Distribution rather than Yodel. They texted me at 9:30 today to say they'll come between 11:00 and 15:00 Whilst better than nothing - and reassuring that it's going to happen - the text was too late for me to change when I took the test, leaves little time to do anything before the time window, and provides relatively limited narrowing of the overall timeframe. Time to stop moaning!

Well the instructions were to take it at 8am and stick the sample in the fridge anyway (I don't have a mobile phone so the text route wan't going to happen, but they emiled me and the info appeared on their tracking website)

[PeterAlan]

I must still have been half-asleep earlier - there was also a return address label for the box, which I had affixed.

[Zelandakh]

hrothgar, on 2020-July-28, 06:38, said:

What Cherdano has is a reputation.

He's been a member of the BBO community for decades
Those of us who are members here know him, know his posting history, and are well able to judge the accuracy of his claims.

He is also exceptionally intelligent with a superbly logical mind. We are lucky he is still here given how many others have stopped posting.

[Zelandakh]

Just to weigh in also on the subject of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread, the CDC published a report back in May that concluded that fully 40% of infections were transmitted from individuals that were not displaying symptoms with 35% of cases actually being asymptomatic. Other reports have given higher numbers for both of these. The evidence simply does not back up a statement like "you're not that contagious unless you have symptoms". In fact I would say that it is dangerous misinformation, precisely the sort of false green light for young adults to go out regularly into clubs and bars that almost all health experts (aside from the most expertest expert of all, admittedly) are trying to avoid.

[Cyberyeti]

Zelandakh, on 2020-July-30, 11:22, said:

Just to weigh in also on the subject of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread, the CDC published a report back in May that concluded that fully 40% of infections were transmitted from individuals that were not displaying symptoms with 35% of cases actually being asymptomatic. Other reports have given higher numbers for both of these. The evidence simply does not back up a statement like "you're not that contagious unless you have symptoms". In fact I would say that it is dangerous misinformation, precisely the sort of false green light for young adults to go out regularly into clubs and bars that almost all health experts (aside from the most expertest expert of all, admittedly) are trying to avoid.

I suspect it's a numbers game. The Icelandic data suggested there were 15-20 times as many people with the virus without symptoms as with them (I don't know for sure how they dealt with presymptomatic, but I suspect it was a "do you have symptoms now" when they tested so they'd be included as without symptoms). Therefore if 40% of the cases are from a/presymptomatic sources you can do the maths, it is many many times less infectious than if you're symptomatic, there are just way more people without symptoms out there. Also, once you have symptoms, most people keep out the way if they can, so this should affect those figures even more.

Any authorities opening nightclubs atm are risking a serious spike, and the young people going to them are courting disaster particularly if they live with older relatives.

[pilowsky]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-July-30, 11:57, said:

I suspect it's a numbers game. The Icelandic data suggested there were 15-20 times as many people with the virus without symptoms as with them (I don't know for sure how they dealt with presymptomatic, but I suspect it was a "do you have symptoms now" when they tested so they'd be included as without symptoms). Therefore if 40% of the cases are from a/presymptomatic sources you can do the maths, it is many many times less infectious than if you're symptomatic, there are just way more people without symptoms out there. Also, once you have symptoms, most people keep out the way if they can, so this should affect those figures even more.

Any authorities opening nightclubs atm are risking a serious spike, and the young people going to them are courting disaster particularly if they live with older relatives.

I suspect that I am going to listen to the advice of actual health experts on this one.
Symptoms and transmissibility are two completely different things.
Also, it's not a game. people are dying. Clubs should remain closed, so should the pubs. Anything that impairs social distancing - alcohol being a major one should be stopped.
I get that being compulsively concerning yourselves with the numbers can be a coping mechanism in this situation. It would be an error to conflate this into a belief that it constitutes knowledge. It does not. It's just a source of comfort.
Which part of the world has the most or fewest cases/deaths is not a competition. Calling the urgent quest for a vaccine "Operation Warp Speed" is extremely strange. Why not make the world safe again?
Instead the Disunited States under the Lord of Flies has set about dismantling the domestic and international apparatus for constructing a vaccine and spends his time in a bunker watching TV eating sugary snacks.
Here's an expert opinion: Make sure that you are at close to the ideal weight, keep your blood pressure, blood sugar levels and cholesterol and lipid levels normal. That's your best hope for survival.

Louis Gohmert believes that he caught the "Wuhan virus" by rubbing it into his face with a mask. He's an elected official.
Trump has 84 million followers and when you listen to him he sounds almost exactly like he has Korsakoff's syndrome.
Here is a description of the symptoms of Korsakoff's - does it remind you of anyone?


Symptoms
Korsakoff syndrome causes problems learning new information, inability to remember recent events and long-term memory gaps. Memory difficulties may be strikingly severe while other thinking and social skills are relatively unaffected. For example, individuals may seem able to carry on a coherent conversation but moments later are unable to recall that the conversation took place or with whom they spoke.

Those with Korsakoff syndrome may "confabulate," or make up, information they can't remember. They are not "lying" but may actually believe their invented explanations.

[Cyberyeti]

pilowsky, on 2020-July-30, 14:37, said:

I suspect that I am going to listen to the advice of actual health experts on this one.
Symptoms and transmissibility are two completely different things.
Also, it's not a game. people are dying. Clubs should remain closed, so should the pubs. Anything that impairs social distancing - alcohol being a major one should be stopped.
I get that being compulsively concerning yourselves with the numbers can be a coping mechanism in this situation. It would be an error to conflate this into a belief that it constitutes knowledge. It does not. It's just a source of comfort.
Which part of the world has the most or fewest cases/deaths is not a competition. Calling the urgent quest for a vaccine "Operation Warp Speed" is extremely strange. Why not make the world safe again?
Instead the Disunited States under the Lord of Flies has set about dismantling the domestic and international apparatus for constructing a vaccine and spends his time in a bunker watching TV eating sugary snacks.
Here's an expert opinion: Make sure that you are at close to the ideal weight, keep your blood pressure, blood sugar levels and cholesterol and lipid levels normal. That's your best hope for survival.

Louis Gohmert believes that he caught the "Wuhan virus" by rubbing it into his face with a mask. He's an elected official.
Trump has 84 million followers and when you listen to him he sounds almost exactly like he has Korsakoff's syndrome.
Here is a description of the symptoms of Korsakoff's - does it remind you of anyone?


Symptoms
Korsakoff syndrome causes problems learning new information, inability to remember recent events and long-term memory gaps. Memory difficulties may be strikingly severe while other thinking and social skills are relatively unaffected. For example, individuals may seem able to carry on a coherent conversation but moments later are unable to recall that the conversation took place or with whom they spoke.

Those with Korsakoff syndrome may "confabulate," or make up, information they can't remember. They are not "lying" but may actually believe their invented explanations.

Hang on, I have actually studied the mathematics of epidemics although not the biology, I am talking from a little knowledge.

And yes, reopening clubs would be reckless in the extreme. Social distancing in a club would be completely impossible in practice and people would not wear masks while dancing which would cause more virus to be being spread as you'd be breathing harder.

Symptoms and transmissibility ARE different, opinion seems to be from what I've read that you are at maximum transmissibility shortly after you show symptoms, and the UK has altered its advice very recently because it believes you stay infectious a little after the symptoms go (isolate for 10 days not 7 if you get symptoms).

[cherdano]

Zelandakh, on 2020-July-30, 11:22, said:

Just to weigh in also on the subject of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread, the CDC published a report back in May that concluded that fully 40% of infections were transmitted from individuals that were not displaying symptoms with 35% of cases actually being asymptomatic. Other reports have given higher numbers for both of these. The evidence simply does not back up a statement like "you're not that contagious unless you have symptoms". In fact I would say that it is dangerous misinformation, precisely the sort of false green light for young adults to go out regularly into clubs and bars that almost all health experts (aside from the most expertest expert of all, admittedly) are trying to avoid.

Do you have a link to the report you are referrring to? I strongly suspect that you misunderstood the report in a subtle but important way: I assume what the report actually showed is that among the identified transmissions *from symptomatic index cases*, about 40% happened before the onset of symptoms.

I don't think anyone has accurate numbers on transmission from completely asymptomatic people - the methodological problem is that asymptomatic carriers are hard to find, and even when you do (via PCR screening an entire population in a current hotspot, or via serology tests) you never know when they got infected, so it is hard to reconstruct whether they infected someone else or vice-versa.


Of course, Cyberyeti also gets something wrong as usual, but since this time we are told the source, it is a little easier to pin down:

Cyberyeti, on 2020-July-30, 11:57, said:

I suspect it's a numbers game. The Icelandic data suggested there were 15-20 times as many people with the virus without symptoms as with them (I don't know for sure how they dealt with presymptomatic, but I suspect it was a "do you have symptoms now" when they tested so they'd be included as without symptoms).

This is wrong. Here is the actual quote from the study:

Quote

Among the participants with positive results for SARS-CoV-2, symptoms of Covid-19 were reported (...) by 57% of those in the overall population-screening group.

I don't know where Cybyeryeti got the factor 15-20 from, but it's definitely wrong. Maybe confusing percentage of symptomatic cases among all cases with percentage of "positive cases found without population screening among estimated no. of total cases in the population"?

[cherdano]

Cyberyeti, on 2020-July-30, 15:09, said:

Hang on, I have actually studied the mathematics of epidemics although not the biology, I am talking from a little knowledge.

Then maybe you can check your "data from Iceland" again and correct what you wrote?

But if you haven't forgotten what you studied, maybe you can consider the following. The incubation period is mostly reported with an average of 5 days. The serial interval can be estimated quite accurately, and all I have seen estimate it around 4 days.
What does this mean for pre-symptomatic transmission?

[Zelandakh]

cherdano, on 2020-July-30, 16:00, said:

Do you have a link to the report you are referring to? I strongly suspect that you misunderstood the report in a subtle but important way: I assume what the report actually showed is that among the identified transmissions *from symptomatic index cases*, about 40% happened before the onset of symptoms.

You are almost certainly correct here. I did not look in any detail but just used information from a summary write-up and confirmed ballpark figures with some later data (yes, it was sloppy but I was doing some other things at the same time).

The original report is actually no longer available as it has been updated with additional data from June and July, giving a current estimate of 40% for "infections that are asymptomatic" and 50% for "transmission occurring prior to symptom onset". The report makes it very clear that the real figures for asymptomatics are unknown and that these are just estimates. It also gives a best estimate of 75% for "Infectiousness of asymptomatic individuals relative to symptomatic", which I assume is generally what CY was referring to in this little sub-thread.

[Zelandakh]

These are the countries that President Trump claims have "tremendous problems". It is easy to see why those other countries should be worried while US parents should be more than happy to send their children out to mingle.

[hrothgar]

Couple quotes from today

Quote

Infected people without symptoms can unwittingly seed numerous chains of infection. “By the time you wait for someone to come forward to the emergency room, you have widespread community spread,” Dr. Birx said.

Quote

“When you have a widespread, multifocal outbreak where many people are asymptomatic, testing and tracing are of limited utility versus public health policy measures like mask-wearing, like closing indoor crowded spaces,” Admiral Giroir said. “So, yes, contact tracing is important, but it’s much less important right now than the public policy mitigation measures.”

[cherdano]

So to summarize, among transmissions from symptomatic covid-19 carriers to symptomatic covid-19 carriers, about 40% happen before the onset of symptoms. Given that people are estimated to be infectious only for about a day before onset of symptoms, this means they must be highly infectious during that time.

More broadly, if we add transmissions from completely asymptomatic covid-19 carriers, and remember that R0 was at least 3 in most countries, it's clear that we cannot keep covid-19 under control unless we also prevent many transmissions from people without symptoms.

That would make it highly irresponsible for any UK government official to proclaim in their official daily briefings that not (yet) symptomatic people are not very contagious. I guess I have no idea whether that is more likely to have happened, or whether Cyberyeti completely misunderstood them.

[cherdano]

Genuine Q: Is there any country, let's say out of Asia, with
- pubs and restaurants open,
- schools open, and
- R<=1 for a sustainable period (let's say at least 3 weeks)?