[lamford]

---

Team match of average ability.

West leads the ten of spades (standard) to the queen and your ace. You lead the two of diamonds, and West thinks for five seconds, with an agreed BIT, and plays the seven. Do you play the jack or nine?

[KingCovert]

lamford, on 2019-December-05, 20:53, said:

---

Team match of average ability.

West leads the ten of spades (standard) to the queen and your ace. You lead the two of diamonds, and West thinks for five seconds, with an agreed BIT, and plays the seven. Do you play the jack or nine?

The nine seems best.

I really don't want West to hold ATXXX. That would defeat this contract if I play the Jack. I can afford to lose 2 hearts, and 2 diamonds. Taking, hopefully, 2-3 diamonds. 2 clubs, 3 spades, and 1-2 hearts. Depending on the play of diamonds and hearts.

So, if I lose this finesse to the stiff 10, fine, I'll pay to that. Otherwise, the break won't be 5-1, I'll pick up the suit for 2 losers and be happy. If the finesse works, I'll usually pick up the suit for 1 loser.

At match points, well, that may change things. But, at teams, the 9 is just correct I think. The tough part is going to be getting opponents to break hearts for you. Or, making them pitch enough hearts that they are forced to play the onside A/K, such that you don't have to finesse the 10. Hopefully the discards on the diamonds will help.

[nige1]

Lamford writes 'Team match of average ability.West leads the ten of spades (standard) to the queen and your ace. You lead the two of diamonds, and West thinks for five seconds, with an agreed BIT, and plays the seven. Do you play the jack or nine?'
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

♦J. (guessing) -- because why would holding ♦T make you hesitate?

---

[lamford]

KingCovert, on 2019-December-06, 16:56, said:

So, if I lose this finesse to the stiff 10, fine, I'll pay to that. Otherwise, the break won't be 5-1, I'll pick up the suit for 2 losers and be happy. If the finesse works, I'll usually pick up the suit for 1 loser.

Picking up the diamonds for two losers leaves you with only eight tricks. Think again.

[lamford]

nige1, on 2019-December-06, 20:39, said:

♦J. (guessing) but why would holding ♦T make you hesitate?[/hv]

It would not. But holding the ace might, and would be the only (legitimate) reason to think. I tell a lie. With Txxx, the actual holding, game theory says West should hesitate and play low, holding Axx he should play low smoothly. His mistake was to admit the hesitation.

[nige1]

lamford, on 2019-December-07, 07:41, said:

It would not. But holding the ace might, and would be the only (legitimate) reason to think. I tell a lie. With Txxx, the actual holding, game theory says West should hesitate and play low, holding Axx he should play low smoothly. His mistake was to admit the hesitation.

Agree. I meant that holding ♦T doesn't seem to be a good reason for an honest hesitation.

[pescetom]

nige1, on 2019-December-07, 13:05, said:

Agree. I meant that holding ♦T doesn't seem to be a good reason for an honest hesitation.

Not in a teams match of average ability, at least.
A beginner/intermediate might well have difficulty in evaluation.

[lamford]

nige1, on 2019-December-07, 13:05, said:

Agree. I meant that holding ♦T doesn't seem to be a good reason for an honest hesitation.

Indeed. The interesting thing is that if he is known to have the ace, the odds change, and playing the jack is right (basically ATxx is less likely than Axx). The player did have Txxx and made an "honest" hesitation, and the TD adjusted, but only to 40% of making 3NT which was about as useful as a chocolate teapot. We have appealed of course.

[KingCovert]

lamford, on 2019-December-07, 07:39, said:

Picking up the diamonds for two losers leaves you with only eight tricks. Think again.

I think you should actually read my post. Because, 3 spades, 3 diamonds, 2 clubs and 1 heart is most certainly not 8.

[mikeh]

I doubt that any but the most random of players would hesitate with Axx(x) and certainly not with A10x(x).

If I had to imagine why a non-expert would hesitate (and I doubt any expert would ever hesitate here), it would be that he or she is a count-giver and was vacillating over whether to give count. Non-experts seem to want to give count whenever possible, but eventually some of them realize that count is more often valuable to declarer than to partner. There are some notable exceptions, but most of the time the robotic giving of count is horrific.

Now, I come to this thread aware that at the table the player held 10xxx, which supports (but does not prove) my notion.

Anyway, assume no hesitation: the correct play in diamonds is an interesting issue. Playing the Jack means that one needs the suit to break 3-3 (ignoring the very low probability of east holding the stiff 10, if for no other reason than that LHO would probably have led a diamond from Axxxx), if one hopes to score 4 diamond tricks...about a 35.5% a priori chance. Meanwhile, playing the 9 will generate 4 diamond tricks almost half the time (50% of the 3-3 and the 4-2 breaks).

Against competent opps, you don't have time to lose 2 diamonds...they have the heart AK coming and surely they will switch to clubs at some point. Since you can't, then, play to lose 2 diamonds, the 9 is the correct play.

I'm puzzled by why the TD would adjust the score here. Declarer presumably decided that the hesitation revealed the A, but one is not entitled to rely upon that inference and make a bad play. The inference is far from clear...even if I am wrong in thinking that the player was perhaps thinking about giving count, maybe he was thinking about making a smith (or reverse smith) signal, or something else. Why this BIT shows the A, and especially why it shows specifically Axx escapes me entirely. Note that no other A holding helps, unless one is going to duck the next diamond entirely, which would be remarkable, and not in a good way.

[lamford]

mikeh, on 2019-December-09, 13:34, said:

I doubt that any but the most random of players would hesitate with Axx(x) and certainly not with A10x(x).

If I had to imagine why a non-expert would hesitate (and I doubt any expert would ever hesitate here), it would be that he or she is a count-giver and was vacillating over whether to give count. Non-experts seem to want to give count whenever possible, but eventually some of them realize that count is more often valuable to declarer than to partner. There are some notable exceptions, but most of the time the robotic giving of count is horrific.

Now, I come to this thread aware that at the table the player held 10xxx, which supports (but does not prove) my notion.

Anyway, assume no hesitation: the correct play in diamonds is an interesting issue. Playing the Jack means that one needs the suit to break 3-3 (ignoring the very low probability of east holding the stiff 10, if for no other reason than that LHO would probably have led a diamond from Axxxx), if one hopes to score 4 diamond tricks...about a 35.5% a priori chance. Meanwhile, playing the 9 will generate 4 diamond tricks almost half the time (50% of the 3-3 and the 4-2 breaks).

Against competent opps, you don't have time to lose 2 diamonds...they have the heart AK coming and surely they will switch to clubs at some point. Since you can't, then, play to lose 2 diamonds, the 9 is the correct play.

I'm puzzled by why the TD would adjust the score here. Declarer presumably decided that the hesitation revealed the A, but one is not entitled to rely upon that inference and make a bad play. The inference is far from clear...even if I am wrong in thinking that the player was perhaps thinking about giving count, maybe he was thinking about making a smith (or reverse smith) signal, or something else. Why this BIT shows the A, and especially why it shows specifically Axx escapes me entirely. Note that no other A holding helps, unless one is going to duck the next diamond entirely, which would be remarkable, and not in a good way.

If you conclude that the only reason for a genuine hesitation is that the ace is with the hesitator, then the percentage line becomes the jack, by at least 3%, much more if you conclude that he would not hesitate with ATxx. And it would be right to fly with the ace if the lead is from a short ten, and you need to continue spades and protect your partner's putative king of diamonds.