[thepossum]

Hi all,

I was a bit disappointed to be overruled into 7 here and only makes on a finesse if you choose the right direction. Or are there alternatives. I felt very lucky and almost went for the drop. I couldn't explain my decision process. Is there a better way to make or was my assessment of 6 ok.

---

Others found 7S or a risky/unmakeable on good defence 7NT. 6 seemed right.

Any thoughts on good ways to play or work out best finesse options

Regards P

[hrothgar]

7N looks like a better contract than 7♠

Not sure why you say that 7N is unmakeable on good defense

Win the opening lead

Cash your clubs
Cash the top Diamonds. Cry when the Jack doesn't drop
Cash your Hearts
King of Spades
Hook a Spade

[Cyberyeti]

Your assessment is wrong, 7N is always there if you get the spades right and is worth bidding.

You always have 4 clubs, 3 diamonds, 3 hearts and 2 spades which is 12 tricks.

If you are in a slam, you want to be in NT (it would be unfortunate if you finessed the spades the correct way and found somebody had all 5, or finessed them the wrong way and found the ♦J dropped in 7♠).

You need to find one extra trick so 7N needs ♦3-3 or Jx in either hand or stiff J in either hand or all 6 with E, or you need to find Q♠.

7♠ you should probably go off, as the lead of ♦7 looks like a short suit, so you play them for spade length.

7N falls into your lap as when you cash the curly suits, you discover E has 6 hearts, 4 clubs, one diamond and thus 2 spades, so W has 5 diamonds and 3 spades and will be squeezed.

End position is S ♠K10 ♦10 N ♠AJ8 W ♠Q96 ♦J and a discard to make (or the ♠ Q will drop from E)

[thepossum]

hrothgar, on 2019-September-14, 16:40, said:

7N looks like a better contract than 7♠

Not sure why you say that 7N is unmakeable on good defense

Win the opening lead

Cash your clubs
Cash the top Diamonds. Cry when the Jack doesn't drop
Cash your Hearts
King of Spades
Hook a Spade

I was basing it on looking at the three hands that made 7NT and they only made through bad defence - ie exposing the Queen of spades and hanging on to useless diamonds - EDIT I think you are right and I'm wrong - more review required . Isn't a hook a finesse - for me that isnt a good 7

I will revisit my analysis/review of the hands

[thepossum]

Cyberyeti, on 2019-September-14, 16:40, said:

Your assessment is wrong, 7N is always there if you get the spades right and is worth bidding.

You always have 4 clubs, 3 diamonds, 3 hearts and 2 spades which is 12 tricks.

If you are in a slam, you want to be in NT (it would be unfortunate if you finessed the spades the correct way and found somebody had all 5, or finessed them the wrong way and found the ♦J dropped in 7♠).

You need to find one extra trick so 7N needs ♦3-3 or Jx in either hand or stiff J in either hand or all 6 with E, or you need to find Q♠.

7♠ you should probably go off, as the lead of ♦7 looks like a short suit, so you play them for spade length.

7N falls into your lap as when you cash the curly suits, you discover E has 6 hearts, 4 clubs, one diamond and thus 2 spades, so W has 5 diamonds and 3 spades and will be squeezed.

End position is S ♠K10 ♦10 N ♠AJ8 W ♠Q96 ♦J and a discard to make (or the ♠ Q will drop from E)

Isn't "if you get the spades right" a big if

As I mentioned to hrothgar the squeeze isnt really a squeeze on the hands I looked at since they kept unmakeable diamonds nd exposed the Queen. I will have another look EDIT I misread the squeeze I think, sorry - but then again I regard squeezes a bit beyond this forum and me most of the time

But my assessment of 6S was ok yes (assuming I wasnt in 7NT)? What is a good way to find NT. Only 3 tables found it by opening 2NT. Any other pathways

[sfi]

hrothgar, on 2019-September-14, 16:40, said:

7N looks like a better contract than 7♠

Not sure why you say that 7N is unmakeable on good defense

Win the opening lead

Cash your clubs
Cash the top Diamonds. Cry when the Jack doesn't drop
Cash your Hearts
King of Spades
Hook a Spade

The SQ will drop on this line - West can't hold onto both spades and diamonds. You just need to discard two spades and a diamond on the clubs.

[hrothgar]

sfi, on 2019-September-14, 17:26, said:

The SQ will drop on this line - West can't hold onto both spades and diamonds. You just need to discard two spades and a diamond on the clubs.

thanks for the correction

[sfi]

thepossum, on 2019-September-14, 16:21, said:

I was a bit disappointed to be overruled into 7 here

My sympathies are with the robot here. 5NT promised all the keycards and the SQ. Pushing to the grand with 12 points more than promised looks reasonable.

[Cyberyeti]

sfi, on 2019-September-14, 17:31, said:

My sympathies are with the robot here. 5NT promised all the keycards and the SQ. Pushing to the grand with 12 points more than promised looks reasonable.

You should correct to 7N at this point knowing you're missing ♠Q, it would appear that inless partner's off his trolley 7N would be at least as good.

I suspect 5N in robot guarantees all the keycards and Q of trumps, with a human it need not by agreement.

[johnu]

thepossum, on 2019-September-14, 16:21, said:

I was a bit disappointed to be overruled into 7 here and only makes on a finesse if you choose the right direction. Or are there alternatives. I felt very lucky and almost went for the drop. I couldn't explain my decision process. Is there a better way to make or was my assessment of 6 ok.

4NT was wildly optimistic. Opposite a typical 7-8 HCP hand (ie there are 22 outstanding HCP, so divided evenly among the other 3 hands is 7+ HCP), 4♠ is going to be the limit on many of those hands and 6 is unlikely to make.

As to why North overruled your 6♠ signoff, 5NT showed all the keycards and the trump queen to continue looking for a grand slam. Instead of a fairly minimum 1♠ response, North had 18 HCP and a source of tricks in clubs. GIB bidding on to a grand was a sound decision (I'm actually a little surprised by this), but I would expect every expert player to continue on to a grand with North's hand.

[thepossum]

Thx everyone

I do have a tendency towards wild optimism from time to time and cant always think how best to cautiously and slowly progress 2/1 towards cue bids - although 4 losers wasnt that optimistic

In this case the wild optimism was not misplaced despite not making the correct call and ending up in 7S instead of 7NT

I considered a 2NT opening which North takes straight to 7NT

Thanks for all the tips.

[johnu]

sfi, on 2019-September-14, 17:26, said:

The SQ will drop on this line - West can't hold onto both spades and diamonds. You just need to discard two spades and a diamond on the clubs.

Good eyesight to see the squeeze. From an investigation standpoint, it is better to cover with the♦8 or ♦10 at trick 1, run 3 diamonds, unblock ♣A, run 3 hearts, and then the 4 clubs. With this particular hand, West will show up with the spade and diamond guards and be squeezed. On other distributions, East may show up with 3 or 4 spades without the long diamond so you will want to keep 3 spades in dummy and finesse East.

[Cyberyeti]

johnu, on 2019-September-15, 14:07, said:

Good eyesight to see the squeeze. From an investigation standpoint, it is better to cover with the♦8 or ♦10 at trick 1, run 3 diamonds, unblock ♣A, run 3 hearts, and then the 4 clubs. With this particular hand, West will show up with the spade and diamond guards and be squeezed. On other distributions, East may show up with 3 or 4 spades without the long diamond so you will want to keep 3 spades in dummy and finesse East.

Actually not, you cash the clubs first pitching a heart, then cash 2 hearts, because if the hand with the diamonds has a second heart, you'll pitch a diamond on the third heart and finesse spades the other way as now the hand with the diamonds will only hold 2 (or 1) spades.

[johnu]

Cyberyeti, on 2019-September-15, 15:01, said:

Actually not, you cash the clubs first pitching a heart, then cash 2 hearts, because if the hand with the diamonds has a second heart, you'll pitch a diamond on the third heart and finesse spades the other way as now the hand with the diamonds will only hold 2 (or 1) spades.

I would check my communications to see if this line makes sense and compare it to my line which will do what you want to do.

[Cyberyeti]

johnu, on 2019-September-15, 16:49, said:

I would check my communications to see if this line makes sense and compare it to my line which will do what you want to do.

What are you discarding when you run the clubs, at this point you potentially have no clue who holds how many spades, you only do because hearts are 6-1. What are you going to discard if W has 5 diamonds, 3 or 4 clubs, and 2 hearts when you cash the fourth club.

You ran the initial diamond lead, I took the 7 at face value as 7 or 7x and retained the ace as an entry, won ♦ with the K and cashed ♣A and ♥AQ then crossed to the ♦A, cashing the clubs, ditching a diamond, spade and heart. It makes no difference when hearts are 6-1 but when they are 5-2 with clubs 4-4 it does as you can now play with the odds and discard your diamond on the third heart knowing that W has at most 2 spades so the odds favour E having the Q.

[johnu]

Cyberyeti, on 2019-September-15, 17:15, said:

What are you discarding when you run the clubs, at this point you potentially have no clue who holds how many spades, you only do because hearts are 6-1. What are you going to discard if W has 5 diamonds, 3 or 4 clubs, and 2 hearts when you cash the fourth club.

You ran the initial diamond lead, I took the 7 at face value as 7 or 7x and retained the ace as an entry, won ♦ with the K and cashed ♣A and ♥AQ then crossed to the ♦A, cashing the clubs, ditching a diamond, spade and heart. It makes no difference when hearts are 6-1 but when they are 5-2 with clubs 4-4 it does as you can now play with the odds and discard your diamond on the third heart knowing that W has at most 2 spades so the odds favour E having the Q.

I will get a complete or near complete count on the hand having played 3 rounds of diamonds, 3 rounds of hearts, 3 rounds of clubs, and then the 4th round of clubs. So I will know whether to play for a diamond/spade squeeze, or to make the percentage finesse play in spades if the squeeze isn't working.

[Cyberyeti]

johnu, on 2019-September-15, 22:44, said:

I will get a complete or near complete count on the hand having played 3 rounds of diamonds, 3 rounds of hearts, 3 rounds of clubs, and then the 4th round of clubs. So I will know whether to play for a diamond/spade squeeze, or to make the percentage finesse play in spades if the squeeze isn't working.

You are not seeing this at all, I get a complete count assuming this lead of dummy's first bid suit is as I expect stiff, you don't.

You won't know if W is 3253 or 2254 at the point you have to make your critical discard (it's fine when hearts are 6-1)

In practice we will both play something close to your line if hearts are 5-2 as 7N will be played the other way up, and on a passive heart or club lead we won't have the information the diamond lead reveals.

[johnu]

Cyberyeti, on 2019-September-16, 04:11, said:

You are not seeing this at all, I get a complete count assuming this lead of dummy's first bid suit is as I expect stiff, you don't.

You won't know if W is 3253 or 2254 at the point you have to make your critical discard (it's fine when hearts are 6-1)

In practice we will both play something close to your line if hearts are 5-2 as 7N will be played the other way up, and on a passive heart or club lead we won't have the information the diamond lead reveals.

Players make unexpected leads all the time. Against 7♠, why lead a singleton (and potentially compromise partner's diamond holding) when partner doesn't have an ace, you have a solid heart sequence to lead, and if partner gets the lead, the contract is already down? Against 7NT, I would not expect a diamond or a spade lead, although a either lead would certainly make things easier.

Assume North is dummy and South is declarer at 7NT since South bid NT first. First, you have to overcome your shock that dummy has an 18 count in this auction. Then, probably expect a club lead from West so any expectations about a singleton diamond with East don't arise.

It is easier to look at it from East's hand. One round of clubs has already been played. If East started with 5 clubs, they almost certainly would have pitched a (useless) club (or 2) on a diamond winner. If so, when you play the 4th club winner and East follows suit, you know they started with 5 clubs. If East had 5 hearts, I wouldn't expect 2 heart discards which could set up declarer's possible 4th heart when there are easy club pitches to make.

If East has pitched a club, the 4th club winner will reveal the club distribution. If East never pitches a club, I would probably play them for 4 clubs. West may also help declarer by pitching a "useless" club which would reveal the suit split.

[Cyberyeti]

johnu, on 2019-September-16, 15:48, said:

Players make unexpected leads all the time. Against 7♠, why lead a singleton (and potentially compromise partner's diamond holding) when partner doesn't have an ace, you have a solid heart sequence to lead, and if partner gets the lead, the contract is already down? Against 7NT, I would not expect a diamond or a spade lead, although a either lead would certainly make things easier.

Assume North is dummy and South is declarer at 7NT since South bid NT first. First, you have to overcome your shock that dummy has an 18 count in this auction. Then, probably expect a club lead from West so any expectations about a singleton diamond with East don't arise.

It is easier to look at it from East's hand. One round of clubs has already been played. If East started with 5 clubs, they almost certainly would have pitched a (useless) club (or 2) on a diamond winner. If so, when you play the 4th club winner and East follows suit, you know they started with 5 clubs. If East had 5 hearts, I wouldn't expect 2 heart discards which could set up declarer's possible 4th heart when there are easy club pitches to make.

If East has pitched a club, the 4th club winner will reveal the club distribution. If East never pitches a club, I would probably play them for 4 clubs. West may also help declarer by pitching a "useless" club which would reveal the suit split.

a) I agree the stiff diamond lead is silly, make declarer's holding A9 to see why, but it's sillier from any other holding.
b) S cannot have 4 hearts, so it's difficult to imagine discarding anything but hearts on the second and third diamonds
c) W if he has 2 hearts will only have to find one pitch and that will be his 5th diamond

[johnu]

Cyberyeti, on 2019-September-16, 16:01, said:

a) I agree the stiff diamond lead is silly, make declarer's holding A9 to see why, but it's sillier from any other holding.

As noted, the diamond lead was against 7♠ by the opponent who presumably would not be on lead. You are going to get a club lead from West.

Cyberyeti, on 2019-September-16, 16:01, said:

b) S cannot have 4 hearts, so it's difficult to imagine discarding anything but hearts on the second and third diamonds

When you see dummy, it should be obvious that South can have anything, including 4 hearts. A huge monster 4=4=4=1 hand that opener didn't want to open 2♣ because it is hard to describe seems like something in the realm of possibility.

Cyberyeti, on 2019-September-16, 16:01, said:

c) W if he has 2 hearts will only have to find one pitch and that will be his 5th diamond

I said "may also help declarer by pitching a "useless" club ". Defenders don't always play the right cards, even when it should be obvious.