HardVector, on 2019-July-25, 18:49, said:
You know your hand will provide tricks in a heart contract. You have no such guarantees about your partner's hand in a spade contract. Give your partner the KQ♥ instead of the AQ, and the opps just have to hold up the ace once to kill your partner's hand. Now you're stuck with 3 diamond losers and a heart loser. Even with the holding your have, if I were east holding the Kxx in hearts, when you run the J, I'd hold up.
I don't agree. That sounds like an oddly specific hand to be worried about when making a decision on this hand. Just for the sake of argument, what happens if, on this hand, your opponent leads a small club while holding KT9X of hearts in the East? Sorry, that was rhetorical, it's almost always entirely hopeless.
You can count 9 tricks in spades, and that's in the worst case scenario (presumably 2H in first seat promises 2 honours). As the joke goes, "What do you call a 7 card suit headed by the AKQ? Trump". This is the case 95% of the time. This is not one of those exceptions.