[Cyberyeti]

KingCovert, on 2019-June-27, 17:01, said:

Are you sure that hand should bid 5D? That hand wants to sacrifice surely? But is 5D really an effective sacrifice? You can still count most of the remaining points, and now the opponents are cold for either grand. You can't assume that either of them has a diamond void of course, so you don't bid 7D, but 6D seems better. Although admittedly, 6D is an obvious sacrifice suggesting slam is makeable given the vulnerability..... I'm not sure... I just don't like 5D with that hand. I'd rather pass or bid less.

Partner will inevitably have QJ109 Q109xx x xxx if you bid 6 and they weren't making 5.

[pescetom]

KingCovert, on 2019-June-28, 08:30, said:

Well, I had a massive hint. You did make the thread after all.

I wasn't playing, if that's what you were thinking, I was Director - more from that point of view in a specific thread next.
But yes, there must be a choice of leads and it must be critical, which helps you picture the hand.

[pescetom]

Cyberyeti, on 2019-June-28, 09:01, said:

How much do you get for 5♠-2 ?

A quarter of all NS at national level scored -100 for 28%, although some of them might be down 1 doubled.
A third scored -50 for 59%, some of them in 4♠-1.
A seventh scored 420 for 89%, so a ♣ lead was not universal or for some not sufficient to defeat game.

Cyberyeti, on 2019-June-28, 09:01, said:

And I don't think anybody is seriously leading a heart,and not really considering it for long.

It only got one vote here, and at local level nobody made that lead.

[KingCovert]

pescetom, on 2019-June-28, 09:28, said:

A seventh scored 420 for 89%, so a ♣ lead was not universal or for some not sufficient to defeat game.

Well, optimal play is a club, ruff a club, a diamond, over-ruff a club as I'm sure you know. But I imagine that some people:

A) Played a diamond at Trick 3 but didn't give the 2nd club ruff
B) Played a heart at Trick 3, but received a Trump promotion due to a misplay of the Trump suit.
C) Cashed the Ace of diamonds before giving the club ruff.

I suspect B.

[dsLawsd]

Leading a diamond spot that serves also as an alarm clock lead seems like the best chance given that a club ruff will not necessarily beat the contract as declarer will find the trumps.

The opposition strength as players/partners would influence me here quite a bit since the auction suggests bidding 6 with a void a little bit. But I choose a diamond for fear the trick will go away on something. Partner did NOT double for a club lead which he might have on a "theory".

An excellent match point question.

Of course the UI horror show messes up everything as now the opening leader has to figure out what logical alternatives there might be.
EWWW

[thepossum]

Possum Sim doesnt find much difference between C,D,H leads with diamonds being very slightly higher average EW tricks but Clubs being very slightly best chance of 3+ tricks. However not really very statistically different

Best chance of 1+ tricks -> diamond lead
Best chance of 2+tricks -> lead heart
Best chance of 3+tricks (small) -> lead club
Best chance of 4+ tricks -> you dont have much chance

Average number of tricks approximately 1 irrespective of C,D,H

Dont lead a spade


Possums also try not to use UI when playing bridge so that was not simulated

They also tend to be very late to parties and try not to look at solutions before answering questions

[msjennifer]

Sirs.If 2C is a game force it may or may not be a long suit.Partner has bid Diamonds and appears for certain is void in Spades.His club or a heart trick can not run away .So,personally and personally only, I do not visualise any harm in leading a Diamond.My answer to the second question is NO

[KingCovert]

I have to say, I just fundamentally disagree that any diamond trick is ever going away. If it exists, that means opponents are each holding 1 diamond.

Now, where exactly are the pitches? The choice is clearly between diamonds and clubs, if a club lead is wrong that means partner doesn't have the Ace, but surely partner has a hand that will regain control of the hand before any pitch can be taken? And if partner doesn't, how was 5D ever a sound bid? 7 diamond tricks and what exactly?

I asked some of the best bridge players I know about this hand, and they all agreed that 5D was a horrible (mild overstatement) bid on this hand, it's surely worse on the non existent hand where partner doesn't get their diamond trick on a club lead.