Chillwell1, on 2019-June-15, 16:12, said:
Thanks for your reply!
Yup, i guess it seems tho that the heart finess have some better chances than the double finess in diamonds.
What is the percentage that west have D10 and diamond honour?
I heard that the Diamond finess (D10 and DQ/DK on west) have 6% better chances than the heart finess or play hearts 3-3.
Is that correct?
Diamond finesse you're not dead if the 9 loses to the 10.
Imagine you crossed with a heart to finesse 9
♦, it loses to the 10 and a heart (best I think) is returned, now you win, pitch a heart on a top club, ruff a heart and hearts 3-3 and trumps 3-2 will get you home as you still have K
♠ as an entry, QJ is also OK if the trumps break.
Chillwell asks "You end up in 6♠ and get a club lead. What is the best line of play?"
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Finessing ♦9 wins when West has ♦KQT..., ♦KT..., ♦QT... or ♦KQ doubleton.
When you lead a ♦, West should probably play a high honour, if he has one.
Finessing ♥8, possibly playing for the drop later, seems to have slightly better chances.
Both lines have squeeze possibilities
Hence my guess:
Win ♣A, Finesse ♥8.
If defender's return a ♦, then you have to decide whether to cash your ♣s, before drawing all the trumps.
Otherwise, win the black suit return, cash ♠AKQJx discarding ♦xx.
Cross to ♥K, cash ♣KQ discarding ♦xx.
Cash ♦A. reducing to