[Tramticket]

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IMP Pairs
Opponents open a weak NT.
Partner leads the 10 of hearts (Standard leads. No particular significance to a 10 lead).

This deal was instructive. I have chosen to present initially from South's point of view. What is your plan for the defence and how do you rate your chances?

[LBengtsson]

what is N bidding on? air? if ♥K played from dummy then unblock Q

[Tramticket]

LBengtsson, on 2019-April-04, 04:35, said:

what is N bidding on? air? if ♥K played from dummy then unblock Q

And if low played from dummy?

[Cyberyeti]

Tramticket, on 2019-April-04, 05:32, said:

And if low played from dummy?

I still play the Q. If it holds I have an interesting decision.

2 questions, what do we overcall 3♥ over 1N on ? do we have 2 suited bids available and would you use them with 6♥4m ?

[Tramticket]

Cyberyeti, on 2019-April-04, 05:47, said:

I still play the Q. If it holds I have an interesting decision.

2 questions, what do we overcall 3♥ over 1N on ? do we have 2 suited bids available and would you use them with 6♥4m ?

I was sitting West, but assume 3♥ would be weak 7-card suit and assume no two-suited overcalls.

Yes the Q will hold.

[Cyberyeti]

Tramticket, on 2019-April-04, 05:56, said:

I was sitting West, but assume 3♥ would be weak 7-card suit and assume no two-suited overcalls.

Yes the Q will hold.

If 3♥ would be weak and 7, A109xxxx is taken off the menu so partner won't be able to cash his suit, I will play him for Qx, A109xxx in the majors and play ♠7. If A109xxxx is possible, then it's a tougher decision, would be embarrassing to catch partner with void, A109xxxx, xxx, Hxx and find declarer makes 4 spades and 5 diamonds, I suppose for that reason should switch to the 9 and declarer still doesn't have 9 tricks.

[Tramticket]

Begtsson notes above we need to unblock if declarer plays the king from dummy. If declarer plays the three, we could try ducking and declarer is in trouble if he wins. But declare should of course duck and as it happens, nothing will work if declarer ducks trick one in both hands:

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But if you transfer the ace of clubs to North, declarer can't succeed … unless he puts up the king on the first round.


So what do you do at trick one as west?

[mikeh]

As west, one's initial thought is that we are going down.

However, we have a play IF south has the club Ace and north the diamond King.

Popping the King works if South has Qx and fails to unblock. Ducking works if South has the Qx and fails to duck.

Nothing works if South has no heart honour.

Popping the King leads to an immediate disaster in the unlikely event that South has the heart Ace...however it is probably only one more undertrick since it is almost certain that North has the club Ace when he overcalls a Queen high suit.

So there are two factors militating in favour of low, when it matters. Firstly, we rate to be going down an extra trick if we pop and South can win.

Secondly, and more likely to be relevant: it is imo easier for South to unblock under the King than it is to play low from Qx.

Most weak players won't do either, but amongst the population that would do one but not the other, I think it overwhelmingly likely that players would unblock under the King before they'd duck the Queen.

Note that declarer is faced with a further interesting decision should he duck in dummy and South also duck.

Most declarers will take a long time to figure out what to do, and a good South will use that time so as to play in tempo. But some declarers will duck after only the usual trick one pause (often not because they have thought this out, but because they know that they guarantee a stopper by doing so). Now South may go into the tank before ducking, and an alert and 'good' declarer may reverse engineer the duck, and duck himself.

This is the sort of issue that can give rise to heated discussions about UI. In the recent Vanderbilt a fine player hesitated at trick one, and declarer played him for a hand with a problem. Whatever the reason for the hesitation, it wasn't for any reason that was apparent to the TD and the players polled: the table result was adjusted. So here, if South has a BIT at trick one, after West ducks, and it turns out he had xx...declarer ducks, North runs the suit, having started with AQ109xx, and the TD adjusts the score to whatever happens after declarer tackles diamonds and clubs.

[miamijd]

mikeh, on 2019-April-05, 12:07, said:

As west, one's initial thought is that we are going down.

However, we have a play IF south has the club Ace and north the diamond King.

Popping the King works if South has Qx and fails to unblock. Ducking works if South has the Qx and fails to duck.

Nothing works if South has no heart honour.

Popping the King leads to an immediate disaster in the unlikely event that South has the heart Ace...however it is probably only one more undertrick since it is almost certain that North has the club Ace when he overcalls a Queen high suit.

So there are two factors militating in favour of low, when it matters. Firstly, we rate to be going down an extra trick if we pop and South can win.

Secondly, and more likely to be relevant: it is imo easier for South to unblock under the King than it is to play low from Qx.

Most weak players won't do either, but amongst the population that would do one but not the other, I think it overwhelmingly likely that players would unblock under the King before they'd duck the Queen.

Note that declarer is faced with a further interesting decision should he duck in dummy and South also duck.

Most declarers will take a long time to figure out what to do, and a good South will use that time so as to play in tempo. But some declarers will duck after only the usual trick one pause (often not because they have thought this out, but because they know that they guarantee a stopper by doing so). Now South may go into the tank before ducking, and an alert and 'good' declarer may reverse engineer the duck, and duck himself.

This is the sort of issue that can give rise to heated discussions about UI. In the recent Vanderbilt a fine player hesitated at trick one, and declarer played him for a hand with a problem. Whatever the reason for the hesitation, it wasn't for any reason that was apparent to the TD and the players polled: the table result was adjusted. So here, if South has a BIT at trick one, after West ducks, and it turns out he had xx...declarer ducks, North runs the suit, having started with AQ109xx, and the TD adjusts the score to whatever happens after declarer tackles diamonds and clubs.

If you play low, you don't always need South to play the Queen in order to make. You can still make sometimes if you duck duck regardless of what South plays; it won't cost if South has a small stiff; it won't matter (you can't make) if South has xx; and it can gain big-time if South has Qx (will need some luck in spades, but winning is always wrong).

Cheers,
Mike

[miamijd]

I play the Kh at trick one and go set as the cards lie.

I won't go into it here, but the only heart layout where your play really matters a lot is the actual one, with South having Qx. Otherwise, your play at trick one doesn't matter that much (maybe a little, not that much in terms of making or going down).

If the hearts are Qx with South, you have to hope North has the Kd, and you have a guess for the Ac. If you think North has the Ac, then fly King at trick one, and now South can choose between unblocking and setting the J up as a second stop or else playing low and blocking the suit. 100% to make here.

If you think South has the Ac, then play low at trick one and play low from hand no matter what South plays.

I would play King for a few reasons:

1. I think it's more likely that the overcaller has the Ac.

2. If I play K and North has the Ac but the D hook is wrong, I will still win if North doesn't unblock. Not likely, but could happen.

3. Even if I guess South for the Ac and am correct, it's still not 100% by any means at all. I play low and let South win regardless of what he plays. But now if South shifts to a spade, I am probably dead if North has the Ks. And if he doesn't have the Ac, he likely has Ks and Kd.

So King for me - and down I go. What else is new?

Cheers,
mike