[nullve]

A hand from yesterday's Free Daylong Tournament (MP):

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On all 17 (out of 30) tables where 3N was played, the auction went exactly as above and GiB led the ♥2 each time.

The first trick goes ♥2-♥3-♥T-♥K. Plan the play.

[nullve]

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So taking the double finesse was worth 100 %...

[wuudturner]

You need the diamond hook to make 9 tricks. So it costs nothing at all to go to dummy to lead the jack. East will cover.

If you think the deuce is a 4th best lead, then hearts are 4-4. So if you return to dummy with a club, then take a second hook in diamonds, and it loses, then you have 9 tricks. If it wins, then you have 10 tricks. That is, IF you trust the bots to lead 4th best.

So I did a little checking online, from the last half dozen or so bot games I played recently. I looked at the lead against all 3NT contracts I played. I excluded hands where an honor lead was indicated. But if I looked only at broken suit leads, I found the bots did lead 4th best from a broken 4 card suit a few times. In fact, when the bot did choose to lead from a broken 4 card suit, it usually seemed like they led 4th best. Then I noticed a few cases where they led 3rd best from 3 small. Then I found a hand where they led the deuce from KQ9432.

So is the double finesse a good shot? You absolutely need the king onside for 9 tricks. The 10 is onside half the time. But if the second hook loses, AND the bot did not lead 4th best, you are in trouble. So I'd say finessing against the 10 is probably a bad idea most of the time. A top or bottom shot, but more often a bottom.

On top of all that, figure that if you are in game, and it makes 9 tricks, then you get a tie for top with the 17/30 tables who bid game and made it. So just making game is worth over 70% on the board. But taking an extra risk to turn 70% into 100% means that more often than not, you will turn that 70% board into a near zero.

The second hook seems like a bad risk.

[Cyberyeti]

Well leading the J off the dummy and when E covered, rumbling the clubs and guessing what to do next is entirely reasonable, in fact if you think the hearts are 4-4 it's a safe second diamond finesse to take.

And that's what you get as EW for not putting ♠Q on the table at trick 1.

[wuudturner]

 Cyberyeti, on 2019-March-04, 13:45, said:

And that's what you get as EW for not putting ♠Q on the table at trick 1.

I hear the East-bot actually rage quit the table when West did not lead a spade. Some of those bots have such a temper. They had to bring in a sub-bot for East on the next board.

[rmnka447]

 Cyberyeti, on 2019-March-04, 13:45, said:

And that's what you get as EW for not putting ♠Q on the table at trick 1.

The bot on lead was obviously a novice.

Tip for newer players ----

How do you beat 3 NT contracts when the other side has 24+ and your side has 16-? You do it by setting up tricks in your long suits and being able to cash them. This requires a suit that might be set up and an entry to be able to cash the set up tricks.

♠ Q gets you off towards setting up long suit tricks in the suit most likely to yield them. The ♥ A provides an entry once you do.

The only exception to the above is where the opponents have a rambling auction and get to 3 NT on 24-25 at most. Then you think about making a passive lead. That is, make a lead that will most likely not give anything away.

But here South has to have a hand likely to jump rebid 2 NT and North can have up to 9 by the explanation. Even if North is near minimum, ♠ Q is less likely to give anything away then a low ♥ with North limited to 3 or less in either major.