Posted 2019-January-30, 13:08
I'd need to know a few things.
In this mp field, how many pairs our direction play weak notrump? If the answer is that most do, then this scenario (to the point of 2N, anyway) is probably common. I suspect, but don't know, that my RHO has a side diamond suit. The alternative, against competent opps, is that partner has a doubleton spade.
If most in the field play strong notrump, then it is probable that we'd be getting to play the hand. Say RHO overcalls somehow to show a 2-suiter....will LHO be able to raise to 3S on such an auction? Far less likely than his raising to 2S on our auction.
This matters because we need to assess how much risk we are in.
I think it fair to say that we'd expect to make 9 tricks in hearts. We may make 10, but I'd bet against it, especially with the spade coming through partner. The notion that he has AK in spades is not impossible but the odds against have to be very high. AQ is more likely, and weaker holdings at least as likely as that. Plus if he is 3=2 in the majors, I'd expect a competent 3S bidder to have shape....5-5 spades and diamonds is entirely consistent with the auction and now hearts may be breaking badly. We can probably handle 4-1 at the 3-level if partner has Kx, but probably not at the 4-level, plus we may be doubled.
If I think that most pairs our way will get to play in 2 or 3 hearts, sometimes by partner but usually by our side, after 1N (2something showing spades and maybe another), then I have to bid 4H. No way are we collecting 300 against 3S, and no way is partner EVER pulling this double unless he has stepped out with, say, 6 clubs.
Many low-level doubles of a fit-auction are DSIP or action doubles, inviting partner to bid something. Not this auction. There is no way that double implies a 6 card heart suit nor does it ask partner to pull. It is penalty. Now, does this mean that no partnership could choose to define this as DSIP or action? No, but it does mean that the default or standard meaning is that 'it's my lead, partner'.
Anyone who, in the absence of an express agreement, treats this double as inviting partner to bid (with normal holdings for the auction) is, imo, guilty of allowing our knowledge of our hand to influence what we think our action means. This is a very common error.
Maybe we beat 3S, but +100 is the most we rate to score (and we'd need to double), and that is a terrible mp result if much of the field will be +140.
However, if much of the field is likely to face this same problem, I want a plus score, and I am far more likely to get that on defence. Since I expect little difference between +50 and +100, I do not double. It is possible that -140 will outscore a lot of -200s so I am not risking -530.
At imps, I pass all the time.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari