[ahydra]

MPs, opps are pretty solid players.

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2NT = 20-22. Opening lead (4th best): C3.

Spoiler

If you play low, East puts up the 9. If you play J, East plays the Q. If you play K, East plays the 2 (encouraging).

If you play a spade to dummy's Q at some point, it wins, West playing the 9 and East the 10 (rev. count).

ahydra

[eagles123]

im rubbish at MP but what about win in hand AK of diamonds if the Q doesn't fall switch to spades?

[gszes]

looking at the two hands it seems 4s is a vastly superior contract to 3n and has reasonable play for making 6 if spades break 32 and even if spades break 41 ten tricks should still be easy. Those opps playing puppet stayman will find the 53 fit and play spades vs nt. Those opps that open 1s will find 4s. It seems that just being in 3n rates to be inferior. So our opps are not just those others in 3n but all of those in 4s as well. The questions seems to be what is the best way to go about making at least 5 and maybe 6. So I would: as soon as i figure out that spoiler format again anyway

Spoiler

trick 1 run the club to the ace even if rho plays low. You may very easily need the club entry to the dummy later and if the club finesse works it will work later if we need it.
trick 2 bang down the spade K We are hoping against hope that the spade A is doubleton and that we will then have an extra entry to dummy in the spade Q
trick 3 spade J once again hoping the spade A is doubleton.
trick 4 and beyond now it gets tricky since the defense may win the spade (from either side) and attack hearts or club or whatever and accounting for every possibility is almost a chapter in a book.
We are going to try and score up 4 spades 2c 1h and 5 diamonds. If it is possible we will take the dia finesse since that is the % play to scoring up 5 dia tricks BUT we will only do that if we have the extra entry
to dummy after the finesse succeeds. If we do not have the needed dummy entry we will have to bang down the dia AK and hope the dia Q is singleton or doubleton.
Do not get carried away with considering the 25% play of the heart J if rho switches to hearts just rise with the ace.
MP is different from imps you have to consider not only the contract you are in but what the probable contracts are at the other tables so making your poor contract is nowhere near as important it is at IMPS.

[pescetom]

eagles123, on 2018-February-14, 08:38, said:

what about win in hand AK of diamonds if the Q doesn't fall switch to spades?

Surely a better way to approach the diamonds would be to finesse against the Q in East?
Looks to me like 48% instead of 32% just playing off AK.

[Tramticket]

pescetom, on 2018-February-14, 09:26, said:

Surely a better way to approach the diamonds would be to finesse against the Q in East?
Looks to me like 48% instead of 32% just playing off AK.

I think that playing AK might be right - for the reason suggested by gszes. We are in a poor contract and need to take an anti-room line to regain ground.

Edit: I win trick 1 in hand with the ace to preserve an entry.

[Winstonm]

I think the key to this deal is to beat the 4S bidders. I can either play for everything onside and breaking to make 12 tricks or play for everything to be offside and try to beat a 10 trick 4S. As matchpoints tends to reward optimists, I say play it wide open for 12 tricks, meaning take both minor suit finesses and play for spades to be 3-2 or the stiff ace with LHO.

[steve2005]

pescetom, on 2018-February-14, 09:26, said:

Surely a better way to approach the diamonds would be to finesse against the Q in East?
Looks to me like 48% instead of 32% just playing off AK.

If the diamond finesse fails you could have your club entry killed before you can cash your high diamonds, so you may never get the long diamond tricks.
At MP it may be worth the risk though.

[MrAce]

gszes, on 2018-February-14, 09:25, said:

looking at the two hands it seems 4s is a vastly superior contract to 3n and has reasonable play for making 6 if spades break 32 and even if spades break 41 ten tricks should still be easy. Those opps playing puppet stayman will find the 53 fit and play spades vs nt. Those opps that open 1s will find 4s. It seems that just being in 3n rates to be inferior. So our opps are not just those others in 3n but all of those in 4s as well. The questions seems to be what is the best way to go about making at least 5 and maybe 6. So I would: as soon as i figure out that spoiler format again anyway

Spoiler

trick 1 run the club to the ace even if rho plays low. You may very easily need the club entry to the dummy later and if the club finesse works it will work later if we need it.
trick 2 bang down the spade K We are hoping against hope that the spade A is doubleton and that we will then have an extra entry to dummy in the spade Q
trick 3 spade J once again hoping the spade A is doubleton.
trick 4 and beyond now it gets tricky since the defense may win the spade (from either side) and attack hearts or club or whatever and accounting for every possibility is almost a chapter in a book.
We are going to try and score up 4 spades 2c 1h and 5 diamonds. If it is possible we will take the dia finesse since that is the % play to scoring up 5 dia tricks BUT we will only do that if we have the extra entry
to dummy after the finesse succeeds. If we do not have the needed dummy entry we will have to bang down the dia AK and hope the dia Q is singleton or doubleton.
Do not get carried away with considering the 25% play of the heart J if rho switches to hearts just rise with the ace.
MP is different from imps you have to consider not only the contract you are in but what the probable contracts are at the other tables so making your poor contract is nowhere near as important it is at IMPS.

I do not understand this at all
First of all before you bang down the ♠K at least try to cash one ♦ honor, in case someone has stiff Q.
When this fails, instead of creating an entry to dummy by making your entire plan depending on Ax ♠, play a small spade to dummy at least on the 2nd round of spades. Banging down the ♠K and then J, which is basically playing for Ax ♠ as you mentioned, wins only when Ax ♠ with East because playing small also wins when W has Ax ♠
Ax ♠ with E is only % 13.56 while the odds of W holding ♠A is % 50. Granted that you also win when W has Ax ♠ brings you up to somewhere % 27, still nowhere close to % 50.
What am i missing about this banging down the ♠ K followed by J ?

[Winstonm]

It occurred to me that if the spade ace is offside then opponents can always deny 5 diamond tricks by returning a club. Even if the spades are 3/2, 4 spades, 3 clubs, 3 diamonds (if the finesse is onside) and 1 heart would be the maximum available on the hand in NT if the diamond finesse is onside and the spade is offside. Therefore, the key issue I believe now is to test the spade entry immediately by winning the club ace and leading a low spade to the Q. If it wins, take the diamond finesse, playing for 12 tricks. If the spade loses to the ace offside, the doubleton queen of diamonds needs to drop even if a heart is returned because the target for our hand then is 11 tricks to beat the spade contracts that take the diamond finesse.

[nige1]

MrAce, on 2018-February-14, 18:03, said:

What am i missing about this banging down the ♠ K followed by J ?

Not much but ... (after cashing ♦A)...

• If ♠KJ win, you can guarantee at least 9 tricks (and retain a residual chance of more) by continuing with ♦ KT, overtaking.
• If an opponent wins an earlier ♠ trick, you have an entry to dummy for the ♦ finesse.

Arguably, you should be suspicious of a good RHO with ♠Axx, who allows you an entry to dummy. Perhaps he's Greek and was also dealt ♦xxx

[gszes]

MrAce, on 2018-February-14, 18:03, said:

I do not understand this at all
First of all before you bang down the ♠K at least try to cash one ♦ honor, in case someone has stiff Q.
When this fails, instead of creating an entry to dummy by making your entire plan depending on Ax ♠, play a small spade to dummy at least on the 2nd round of spades. Banging down the ♠K and then J, which is basically playing for Ax ♠ as you mentioned, wins only when Ax ♠ with East because playing small also wins when W has Ax ♠
Ax ♠ with E is only % 13.56 while the odds of W holding ♠A is % 50. Granted that you also win when W has Ax ♠ brings you up to somewhere % 27, still nowhere close to % 50.
What am i missing about this banging down the ♠ K followed by J ?

I am completely uninterested in making 3n (it hurts to say that as a mostly IMP player). I am adopting a radical LOP precisely because it appears that 3n rates to be an inferior contract and the LOP that is being adopted is trying to match the probable 11 or even 12 tricks available in 4s. We are assuming that spades are breaking 32 (this is right only about 68% but since we cannot judge otherwise we are predicating our LOP on that assumption). In a vacuum it is totally right to play a small spade toward the Q but here there is an oddity. With so few spots LHO might easily be looking at something like ATx and would hate to fall prey to us having banged down the K from Kxxxx when it is so :obvious: the Q is an entry anyway. It takes great intestinal fortitude to assume our next play is not low to the Q and they are giving up on getting 2 spade tricks if their p started with Jx. Yes indeed low the Q will work 50% but how many times will banging down the K work in real life and the fog of war? The opps do not know what we are doing yet, that is what makes defense so hard. So in the relevant cases where spades split 32 there are ten where low to the A wins outright and only 8 where the KJ work outright. One also has to take into consideration just how many times lho will (very reasonably) cover the K with ATx or even A9x as they have to decide before seeing their partner's first spade play. Hard to quantify but I will take my chances that the fog of war will win out more often than not making the KJ a better start.

Banging down the dia A to cater to the small chance of a stiff Q goes against the idea of the fog of war. Lho, with Axx of spades, does not know we are within a whisker of setting up the dia suit. Banging down the dia A will give them a much better idea of what is going on and vastly increase the probability they will indeed duck the spade K. If you intend to bank down the dia A then you are definitely better off leading low to the spade Q. I guess I prefer to give my opponents a reasonable chance to go wrong rather then depending on a lucky lie of the cards (still waiting to win the lottery).

[MrAce]

Ok ty to Nige1 and George for explaining.

[ahydra]

Thanks all, full hand was:

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I played low on the first club to the 9 and Ace, then played a spade to the Q and finessed the D10, losing to the Q. Another club came back and I finessed the J, misguessing the position. East switched to the HK. I was eventually able to endplay West for 9 tricks but it was a bottom as everyone else had made 10-11 tricks in NT or spades.

I quite like Nige1's line of setting up diamonds from the top while retaining the spade entry. I also missed the fact the club spots were enough to prevent the clubs running (76 equals against the ten), so could have and probably should have gone up K on the second club.

ahydra

[Tramticket]

Thanks, challenging hand!

Its interesting that west chose to lead a club rather than a major.

[gszes]

Tramticket, on 2018-February-14, 09:48, said:

I think that playing AK might be right - for the reason suggested by gszes. We are in a poor contract and need to take an anti-room line to regain ground.

Edit: I win trick 1 in hand with the ace to preserve an entry.

If laying down the dia AK fails the fog of war is gone and the opps will have little to no problem with the defense from that point and the spade ace is still out there. The fog of war concept is a potent ally and may prevent the opps from effectively defending when they win the spade ace. Remember that if the opps win the spade ace and do make a "entry killing" shift we can always fall back on laying down the dia AK so there is little reason to do so immediately.