[0deary]

My previous was based on some old analysis (when I only got 0.1 imps in 6H imps on BBO) so I checked the imps (correct of course) then then fiddled with slightly different fields and MPs but i might have picked up the stick anyway…

So here if a quick replacement please

Your issue is under leading an Ace so I should exclude the grand slams and not such an extreme range
So I’ve generated a more representative field and asked myself a better question on that (compare make and go down and not compare make with “average” score)
The result is exactly the opposite I suggested earlier so I’ll show why and let you decide!

(table missing- ask me if you are interested)

So at imps if I bid slam over game I gain 15 imps, but lose 11 if I went down. Slightly "odds on" to try slam on this field

(table missing- ask me if you are interested)

So at MPs if I bid slam over game I gain 9 points, but lose 16 if I go down. Significantly against the odds to bid slam on this field

So if I’m defending their slam holding an Ace I’d reflect that at imps they might be stretching a bit and err on a safe leads, but at MPs they’d be expecting to make it and we need something out of the ordinary to knock it

Sorry! ☺