[lamford]

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matchpoints. rank your choices. 1NT was g11-14

[Tramticket]

8S

2nd choice 8D.

[broze]

D2

[nige1]

lamford, on 2017-October-19, 14:38, said:

matchpoints. rank your choices. 1NT was g11-14

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I rank

• ♥. Opponents are unlikely to hold a 5+ Major.
• ♦. Safeish.
• ♠. Passive and partner might have competed with 5+ ♠s.
• ♣. Brave gamble, likely to go horribly wrong.

[The_Badger]

The only lead I wouldn't make is a ♣. Not keen on a ♥ either. Could give away a trick. Rather try to set up a 'potential' winner in the second of my four suits while still retaining entries. If the suit wasn't headed by the ♦10 I would be leading the ♦8, so it's a boring ♦2.

I'd rather go semi-conventional - 4th highest (assuming that's the leads we use) - and 'go' with the field than trying to find a killing lead at matchpoints.

[nekthen]

Agree with the Badger that I am not leading a club. I do not like leading a 2 as 4th highest. I have seen too many instances of that giving away the position to declarer. Many will not bid 2♠ unless they have a 6 card suit, so I will hope to find p with a 5 card ♠ suit.

[gszes]

low heart

too many frozen suit combinations include a defender having T8 for me to be happy with spades or diamonds. I would lead a club ONLY if we needed a top or if our partnership agreement was to always play top or bottom leads (most of which will fail rather spectacularly). P had a chance to compete in PO seat and their failure to do so greatly increases the probability they are balanced since they are at least as strong as we are.

[NickRW]

D2

[LBengtsson]

♦ 2

[RD350LC]

gszes, on 2017-October-20, 05:06, said:

low heart

too many frozen suit combinations include a defender having T8 for me to be happy with spades or diamonds. I would lead a club ONLY if we needed a top or if our partnership agreement was to always play top or bottom leads (most of which will fail rather spectacularly). P had a chance to compete in PO seat and their failure to do so greatly increases the probability they are balanced since they are at least as strong as we are.

I tend to leading a low heart as well. Safe, as it does not give away anything.
I definitely would not lead a club.

[PhilG007]

lamford, on 2017-October-19, 14:38, said:

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matchpoints. rank your choices. 1NT was g11-14

♥2 Unlike a suit contract,it's perfectly safe to lead away from aces
at No Trumps This suit could also be declarer's weak point.

[FrancesHinden]

I would lead a heart last out of the suits.
Don't feel strongly between a spade and a diamond. A club could be a super goal or a disaster.

[Jinksy]

I like a club. It's the one suit I can't give a trick away in, which is my normal priority to 1N. It might help set up our suit or theirs - in the latter case I'll still get one chance to run some tricks (would not lead a club if P had a natural 2♣ call available though).

Diamond easy second choice, then spade.

[miamijd]

Who knows what is right? I know I don't, and I'm pretty sure none of you do, either!

Seriously, almost anything could be right. A spade could hit partner's suit, and at least it probably doesn't give much away. A heart could set up a long-card trick for your side, but it could also give a trick. A diamond could also set up a long-card trick, but it may be too late to take it. A club is risky, as that could be declarer's suit (he might hook twice otherwise), but partner might have JTxxx.

I think at MPs I would lead a low diamond, but questions like this don't seem very useful to me, because there is too much guesswork and luck involved to really come up with a "best" answer.

Cheers,
mike

[The_Badger]

miamijd, on 2017-October-20, 21:32, said:

Who knows what is right? I know I don't, and I'm pretty sure none of you do, either!

Seriously, almost anything could be right. A spade could hit partner's suit, and at least it probably doesn't give much away. A heart could set up a long-card trick for your side, but it could also give a trick. A diamond could also set up a long-card trick, but it may be too late to take it. A club is risky, as that could be declarer's suit (he might hook twice otherwise), but partner might have JTxxx.

I think at MPs I would lead a low diamond, but questions like this don't seem very useful to me, because there is too much guesswork and luck involved to really come up with a "best" answer.

Cheers,
mike

Best answer on here, Mike. Exactly what I was thinking when I commented. With scant information to go on - except everyone appears to be average-pointed and balanced - it is a 'toss a coin' scenario. Who knows whether every East will be in a 1NT contract, too? The only small bit of information that you have is that declarer has opened a weak NT, so is less likely to have a 5 card major playing Acol (presumably) as a rebid at the 2 level can be made on a 5 card suit, but then again they may be playing 5M Acol as I do occasionally. As you say, it's luck and a guess.

[rmnka447]

Note that opener could hold up to 5 cards in either minor. So neither minor appeals to me. A ♦ lead with something like H9 on the table could give up the suit.

Partner has to have at least 6 (Responder bad 11, opener 14) up to about a max of about 13-14 where action would be taken in reopening seat.

Responder probably doesn't have a 5 card major as with one and without enough to invite, 2 M (or transfer to 2 M) would be normal.

I think I'm putting ♠ 8 on the table. Especially at MP, if the opponents are 4-4 in ♠, 2 ♠ making their way may outscore 1 NT.

[mcphee]

Eeany meany miny moe is my choice in the rate your lead category, with a slight edge to moe, or was it meany? Wrong it was miny. Finally the I found the answer taking all my 2's sliding them like 3 card monty and suggested declarer choose, he landed on 2!H.

[PhilG007]

miamijd, on 2017-October-20, 21:32, said:

Who knows what is right? I know I don't, and I'm pretty sure none of you do, either!

Seriously, almost anything could be right. A spade could hit partner's suit, and at least it probably doesn't give much away. A heart could set up a long-card trick for your side, but it could also give a trick. A diamond could also set up a long-card trick, but it may be too late to take it. A club is risky, as that could be declarer's suit (he might hook twice otherwise), but partner might have JTxxx.

I think at MPs I would lead a low diamond, but questions like this don't seem very useful to me, because there is too much guesswork and luck involved to really come up with a "best" answer.

Cheers,
mike

My choice was based on the lesser evil. A club achieves nothing;a diamond lead is pointless..partner may return the suit expecting
you to have led from a high honor. The same goes for the spades. So,by a process of elimination,the best lead is the 4th highest heart.

[nullve]

I think the ♣K (or the ♣Q, if the K would ask for an unblock) is the Bird-Anthias lead on this hand.

[Jinksy]

nullve, on 2017-October-21, 07:41, said:

I think the ♣K (or the ♣Q, if the K would ask for an unblock) is the Bird-Anthias lead on this hand.

If so I would expect it to do better still with 4 human players, since any of the other suits look reasonably likely to save declarer a guess that the DD solver will always get right.