[ahydra]

IMPs

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Lead: S10 (to A, 4 (encouraging), 5). Plan the play.

ahydra

[The_Badger]

+1 for posting, ahydra. I'd rather be in 6♦ here. Given that grand slams should be bid on a probability of 75%+ can we at least assume ♦s split 3-2 (68%). I'm already timed out mesmerised what is the statistically correct line. (Oh for the ♦8 instead of ♦6 in the West hand.)

[The_Badger]

My line for what it's worth - lol!

1) ♠A
2) ♠ ruff with trump
3) small ♣ to J (sweat pouring off brow now) - holds!
4) ♣A
5) ruff small ♣ with high trump
6) ♥A
7) ruff small ♣ with high trump
8) ♦ to ♦AQ9 ♠KQ ♣2 hope dummy's good.

Win last trick with smallest card in the pack ♣2

[Cyberyeti]

I'm probably cross ruffing the hand. The lead looks like a "safe" 1098(x)(x).

I will cash 3 spades to start, pitching a heart then a club, if the second or third spade is ruffed in front, I will need the club finesse, if it isn't I have to guess whether to ruff the 4th spade or 3rd club later (with other possibilities if for example S has ♣Kx).

[nige1]

ahydra, on 2017-August-16, 05:37, said:

Lead: S10 (to A, 4 (encouraging), 5).
Plan the play.

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My guess:
♠AKQ discarding ♣Q and 2♥s.
If the ♠ tops stand up then cash plain suit aces and cross-ruff.
If RHO ruffs the 3rd ♠, then over-ruff and finesse ♣J, cash ♣A and cross-ruff.
If RHO ruffs the 2nd ♠, then over-ruff, finesse ♣J, ruff a ♣ high, ♥A, ruff a ♣ high, ♦9, ruff a ♠ high, cash ♦AQ, ♠Q, and ♣Ax.

[ahydra]

3 rounds of spades survive but S will ruff the 2nd club with the D7.

edit: which makes the crossruff line a success (ruffing two clubs small and one high, ruffing three hearts high, and ending with ♦KJ at trick 12). Well done to CY and nige1. What if the ♦3 is led?

ahydra

[nige1]

ahydra, on 2017-August-16, 15:18, said:

3 rounds of spades survive but S will ruff the 2nd club with the D7, which makes the crossruff line a success (ruffing two clubs small and one high, ruffing three hearts high, and ending with ♦KJ at trick 12). Well done to CY and nige1.

What if the ♦3 is led?

Thank you. If RHO ha a singlton ♣, then it must be hard to make 7♦. on a ♦ lead, except at double-dummy. My best single dummy effort:is ♦9, ♠AKQ, discarding ♣Q and 2 ♥s, ♥A, ruff a ♠ (perhaps you should ruff high), finesse ♣J, cash ♣A. If RHO had followed, then you could cross-ruff.
If RHO ruffs ♣A, then hope ♥Q ruffs out.

[The_Badger]

Well done Cyberyeti and Nige1 +1

I consider the crossruff initially, but bet against it fearing North would ruff 3rd ♠. A trump is usually a safe lead against a grand slam so I was wondering why North had led a ♠? I realise my line was statistically inferior to yours but by the time I posted 40 minutes had elapsed! (I don't think too many directors would be happy with my 'slow play')

[Cyberyeti]

The_Badger, on 2017-August-17, 02:08, said:

Well done Cyberyeti and Nige1 +1

I consider the crossruff initially, but bet against it fearing North would ruff 3rd ♠. A trump is usually a safe lead against a grand slam so I was wondering why North had led a ♠? I realise my line was statistically inferior to yours but by the time I posted 40 minutes had elapsed! (I don't think too many directors would be happy with my 'slow play')

If you've got ♠10x or 109, you probably have 3 or 4 small trumps and would have led one against a grand. The 10♠ felt like "safer than a trump" hence 1098x or similar with a stiff trump which hasn't been led as opps have blasted it and you could be picking up J10xx for declarer.

[ahydra]

Full hand:

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My lead of the S10 was probably ill-advised on the auction - I'd been listening to David Bird go on about trump leads vs grand slams a bit too much . Declarer went one down, while team-mates were in the rather unimaginative 3NT. He should have made it though - he played Nige's crossruff line but forgot to cash the SQ first. (Perhaps my 10-x of spades made him think I started with a doubleton?)

On a trump lead, you have to take the club finesse then squeeze South in the majors - all rather double-dummy:

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ahydra