[lamford]

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Trailing in the Vanderbilt final, you are pushing and reach the reasonable slam here. North leads the Q♠. You win and draw trumps in two rounds. How do you play the hearts?

[PrecisionL]

If ♥s are 2-2, it doesn't matter. If not, then low toward the J. (but, I hate first round finesses!)

[lamford]

PrecisionL, on 2017-March-21, 06:22, said:

If ♥s are 2-2, it doesn't matter. If not, then low toward the J. (but, I hate first round finesses!)

I agree with the first sentence. But you do need to say what you play if South plays the eight or the ten.

[sfi]

On the bidding I would expect North to have a singleton somewhere, so I would think hearts are 3-1. If North's singleton is the ten or eight, South's will always play the other low card. If the singleton is an honour, South will play each of the 8 and 10 some percentage of the time. Simple restricted choice leads to playing the jack.

On the other hand declarer, who played in the final and I didn't, played for a singleton honour in North. I presume I am missing something, which may be as simple as trying to generate a swing.

[nige1]

lamford, on 2017-March-21, 05:52, said:

Trailing in the Vanderbilt final, you are pushing and reach the reasonable slam here. North leads the Q♠. You win and draw trumps in two rounds. How do you play the hearts?

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Opponents have 14 HCP between them and LHO led ♠Q, often showing ♠QJ. Whatever restricted-choice suggests, RHO, who bid 1♠ is quite likely to hold most of the remaining 11 HCP, including the ♥ honours. Hence, declarer might decide to finesse ♥ knave.

[nige1]

duplicate.

[yunling]

The problem here is, if south holds HT8, whether is there a higher chance that he will play 8 or T.
Against intermediate players, I believe most of them will play 8 quickly so if T appears, usually 8 would be in north's hand, thus finessing with J is the correct play. Against strong players who are able to notice the effect it's 50-50.

[sfi]

nige1, on 2017-March-21, 08:52, said:

Opponents have 14 HCP between them and LHO led ♠Q. Whatever restricted-choice suggests, RHO, who opened 1♠ is likely to hold most of the remaining 12 HCP, including the ♥ honours. Hence, IMO declarer should finesse ♥ knave.

The 1S bid was an overcall, not an opening bid.

[nekthen]

sfi, on 2017-March-21, 15:33, said:

The 1S bid was an overcall, not an opening bid.

No but it is a red v green overcall. Also South overcalled 1S not 2S. So North has a 6 card S suit headed by the QJ. Yet did not open a weak 2.
There is a big assumption that the lead denies the KS. In the circumstances it could be an interesting false card opportunity.
Another point for the J is that the split could even be 4 0 in hearts given the leap to 4S

This post has been edited by nekthen: 2017-March-22, 08:39

[silvr bull]

My guess is that N would open 2S if he had QJxxxx void xx QJxxx, but he needs something like that for the red jump to 4S. I will play him for a H honor and 3 or 4 clubs instead of CQJxxx. So I play the HA first, then lead toward the HJ.

[alok c]

As nige 1 said ,after North shown ♠Q chance of South holding ♥KQ is more.To be reasonably sure of that I would play ♣K before touching ♦.♣K, low ♦, ♣ruff, low ♦, ♣A. If by this it is indicated that North holds at least one ♣ honour,I would be reasonably sure to finesse ♥J.

[lamford]

The main reason for playing the jack is that it also gains when South has KQT8, as you can ruff the suit good. You do not know if 6D will be reached in the other room, so there is no reason to make the wrong play to create a swing. One small improvement is to lead the 9 from dummy, as most South's will cover if they have the 10 8, although they should, in theory, play randomly. The jack picks up all 2-2s (about 41%), both KQx onside, around 25%, and also KQTx onside - another 4.5%, and this last is the main gain of the jack. I also think North is unlikely to have a singleton KH for his adverse pre-raise to 4S, as that is a big defensive value of little offensive use.

[cherdano]

lamford, on 2017-March-22, 07:51, said:

I also think North is unlikely to have a singleton KH for his adverse pre-raise to 4S, as that is a big defensive value of little offensive use.

Disagree, North would be 5125 or 6124 with QJ of trumps - he/she will always bid 4♠ no matter whether it's a small or honour singleton.

[gszes]

I have a math question for all the genius out there and this hand is a good example. In order for 6d to succeed we have 2 plausible LOP heart A and lead to the J OR lead to the J immediately.
In order to determine which is best I have a curious question. We NEED SOUTH to hold certain distribution(s) AND since both LOP handle all 22 splits those are irrelevant to choosing which lop to use.
Thus SOUTH needs to have started with: (or a bunch of other irrelevant distributions)
KQT8
KQT
KQ8
KT8
QT8
My question now is does this change the odds dramatically in favor of playing to the J? It would seem that of the IMPORTANT remaining distributions playing to the J caters to 60% while playing the A caters to 40%. While there are other factors like the bidding etc that change the odds I am curious WHY or WHY NOT does this highly limited set not more accurately reflect which LOP should be chosen vs one that merely reflects a pool of all the possible distributions????????

[cherdano]

I think the tipping factor is the lead. Leading a low heart singleton is an attractive alternative to leading a spade (which cannot setup a trick). Leading an honor singleton in declarer's long suit is much more dubious.

[nige1]

alok c, on 2017-March-22, 07:37, said:

As nige 1 said ,after North shown ♠Q chance of South holding ♥KQ is more.To be reasonably sure of that I would play ♣K before touching ♦.♣K, low ♦, ♣ruff, low ♦, ♣A. If by this it is indicated that North holds at least one ♣ honour,I would be reasonably sure to finesse ♥J.

This line is dangerous if defenders trumps break 3-1

You get a bonus, however, if ♣QJT are tripleton. You can cash ♣98 and lead a ♥ towards the ♥J, losing only to a most unlikely ♥KQT with LHO

[alok c]

nige1, on 2017-March-22, 11:05, said:

This line is dangerous if defenders trumps break 3-1

You get a bonus, however, if ♣QJT are tripleton. You can cash ♣98 and lead a ♥ towards the ♥J, losing only to a most unlikely ♥KQT with LHO

Why? I will play an extra round of trump & then cash ♣A & lead ♥ as usual & finesse J.Depending upon North's holding (H singleton,small singleton ), i will lose one or two tricks.Advantage of playing Club this way is if North or South holds doubleton Club with one Honours it will be revealed & will help to decide Heart play.

[msjennifer]

How would one have tackled trumps if the contract was 6H and not 6D ? Well,just play the same way here.Do you get me Steve?

[lamford]

msjennifer, on 2017-March-22, 12:31, said:

How would one have tackled trumps if the contract was 6H and not 6D ? Well,just play the same way here.Do you get me Steve?

There is quite a big difference. Around 5% in fact. In 6D you can ruff the hearts good when South has ♥KQT8, but in 6H there is no way to pick up the trumps for one loser. In 6H it is very close between low to the jack and low to the ace. But in 6D, it is clear to play low to the jack.

[MrAce]

lamford, on 2017-March-23, 05:41, said:

There is quite a big difference. Around 5% in fact. In 6D you can ruff the hearts good when South has ♥KQT8, but in 6H there is no way to pick up the trumps for one loser. In 6H it is very close between low to the jack and low to the ace. But in 6D, it is clear to play low to the jack.

That assumes they do not lead their small stiff vs slams (or they have void)
Would you not lead your stiff? You win when pd has ♥A or trump A. Idk, playing opening leader not to have led his stiff is a big decision imo.