[smerriman]

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GIB Survivor Tournament (MPs).

Lead is 5♣, and East plays the Q over dummy's J. What is the best play from here?

Spoiler

It seems I am going to lose two diamonds, and must set them up immediately before the opps set up the hearts. I won with the K♣, and played a diamond to the J. East won, sent back an expected heart. Diamonds broke 2-2; opps actually played on clubs, but West had AQ♠ and I made my 7 tricks.

Scoring.. 26%.

I realised afterwards it would be better leading the K♦ - this gains a trick if either player has a singleton Q, vs hoping for a singleton Ace which only helps if that singleton is with West.

Players who won the K♣ and lead the K♦ had West helpfully duck, so immediately scored +1.
Not true for players who won the A♣ and lead the K♦, but most of those, plus some who won the A♣ and played a low diamond, ended up being given an extra spade trick at some point. Plus of course, people who made the seemingly terrible play of leading to the A♥ and running the J♦ got an extra trick too.

A lot of this can probably be put down to the randomness of GIB - but is there anything more to this hand that I've missed, or is the low score (mainly) due to plain bad luck?

Full hand for reference:

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[MrAce]

Win the ♣ and play ♦K, if 2-2 diamonds it does not matter which diamond you played. If 3-1 and they had a stiff Q you win by playing K regardless of who had the stiff Q. Small diamond to the J wins only if W has stiff diamond A.

Playing K also has the advantage of being ducked from 2-2 if defendants believe you have only Kx ♦. Defense may believe they need to duck if Ax holder believes his pd has Qxxx ♦, since you have only 1 entry to dummy, by ducking the first ♦, they prevent you from establishing diamonds.

[Tramticket]

That looks right at IMPs but I'm not so sure about MP. Given that it is MP, I would be tempted to cross to dummy in hearts and run the jack of diamonds.

Yes, this may be silly if west wins the queen of diamonds and clears the hearts, but it is likely to be best if East has the diamond queen, or west fails to switch to hearts (it may not be obvious from his side - particularly as you seem happy to play hearts).

[nullve]

Agree with Mr Ace, but ♠K at trick 2, followed by the ♦K if it holds, is also interesting.

[Phil]

Agree with Timo but I would not have hopped with the J at T1. GIB rarely leads from honors unless its a 5 card suit and theres only one case of that if its leading the T from T9 combos.

[MrAce]

Tramticket, on 2016-December-15, 06:16, said:

That looks right at IMPs but I'm not so sure about MP. Given that it is MP, I would be tempted to cross to dummy in hearts and run the jack of diamonds.

Yes, this may be silly if west wins the queen of diamonds and clears the hearts, but it is likely to be best if East has the diamond queen, or west fails to switch to hearts (it may not be obvious from his side - particularly as you seem happy to play hearts).

You should be sure also at MP. You need to learn to look at the bigger picture.
You did not receive a ♥ lead, which is good for you but you are trying to return this gift back to them.
Your inexperience is easily seen from your comment that says "but it is likely to be best if East has the diamond queen"
This is far from facts. Playing ♦J from dummy wins ONLY if E has Qx or AQ tight ♦. If E has Qxx or AQxx ♦, you just shot yourself in the leg. If E has stiff Q, playing ♦K would have also worked.

Ax-Qx and xx-AQ is only 20% that is what you are playing for.
Axx vs Q is a push.

You are risking to make your contract when diamonds break

AQxx-void = 5 %
AQx--x= 12%
AQ-xx=6%
A--Qxx=6%
Qxx--A=6%
Qx--Ax=13 %
Q--Axx=6%
x--AQx= 12%
void--AQxx =5%

Also you lose tempo in some hands to make an extra trick in spades, by simply knocking out your own stopper.
Assume you caught ♦ Qx or AQ tight with East and they knocked your 2nd ♥. How many tricks you make? You make 8 tricks. Assume I played K of dia and lost they knocked my ♣K, I play 2nd dia and they cashed 2 clubs. They made 2♦+2♣ tricks, I can still catch you if I make a spade trick. Because I still stop the hearts.

[nullve]

MrAce, on 2016-December-15, 15:48, said:

Ax-Qx and xx-AQ is only 20% that is what you are playing for.
Axx vs Q is a push.

You are risking to make your contract when diamonds break

AQxx-void = 5 %
AQx--x= 12%
AQ-xx=6%
A--Qxx=6%
Qxx--A=6%
Qx--Ax=13 %
Q--Axx=6%
x--AQx= 12%
void--AQxx =5%

Those are a priori probabilities. And opps didn't bid.

[MrAce]

nullve, on 2016-December-15, 15:59, said:

Those are a priori probabilities. And opps didn't bid.

Ummm. What?

[smerriman]

MrAce, on 2016-December-15, 06:08, said:

Playing K also has the advantage of being ducked from 2-2 if defendants believe you have only Kx ♦. Defense may believe they need to duck if Ax holder believes his pd has Qxxx ♦, since you have only 1 entry to dummy, by ducking the first ♦, they prevent you from establishing diamonds.

Excellent point, thank you. I hadn't considered that fact there might have been a valid reason for GIB to duck.

nullve, on 2016-December-15, 06:33, said:

Agree with Mr Ace, but ♠K at trick 2, followed by the ♦K if it holds, is also interesting.

Interesting indeed. Probably far too daring for me

Phil, on 2016-December-15, 09:49, said:

Agree with Timo but I would not have hopped with the J at T1. GIB rarely leads from honors unless its a 5 card suit and theres only one case of that if its leading the T from T9 combos.

The J may be a small chance of winning, but it's a chance of a bonus trick nonetheless - is there anything to gain from not playing it? It will stop East from leading clubs, but I'm not sure that helps me much due to the heart situation.

[Tramticket]

MrAce, on 2016-December-15, 15:48, said:

You should be sure also at MP. You need to learn to look at the bigger picture.
You did not receive a ♥ lead, which is good for you but you are trying to return this gift back to them.
Your inexperience is easily seen from your comment that says "but it is likely to be best if East has the diamond queen"
This is far from facts. Playing ♦J from dummy wins ONLY if E has Qx or AQ tight ♦. If E has Qxx or AQxx ♦, you just shot yourself in the leg. If E has stiff Q, playing ♦K would have also worked.

Ax-Qx and xx-AQ is only 20% that is what you are playing for.
Axx vs Q is a push.

You are risking to make your contract when diamonds break

AQxx-void = 5 %
AQx--x= 12%
AQ-xx=6%
A--Qxx=6%
Qxx--A=6%
Qx--Ax=13 %
Q--Axx=6%
x--AQx= 12%
void--AQxx =5%

Also you lose tempo in some hands to make an extra trick in spades, by simply knocking out your own stopper.
Assume you caught ♦ Qx or AQ tight with East and they knocked your 2nd ♥. How many tricks you make? You make 8 tricks. Assume I played K of dia and lost they knocked my ♣K, I play 2nd dia and they cashed 2 clubs. They made 2♦+2♣ tricks, I can still catch you if I make a spade trick. Because I still stop the hearts.

Agreed - I must have given this a superficial look.

[nullve]

MrAce, on 2016-December-15, 15:48, said:

You need to learn to look at the bigger picture.

Which includes the auction and the play so far. That's why your probabilities must be taken with a huge grain of salt. For example, is there a 5 % chance that RHO has a diamond void? I know GiB's overcalling style vs. 1N is extremely conservative in some ways, but against human experts, at least, I'm sure that would almost never happen.

[MrAce]

nullve, on 2016-December-17, 07:59, said:

Which includes the auction and the play so far. That's why your probabilities must be taken with a huge grain of salt. For example, is there a 5 % chance that RHO has a diamond void? I know GiB's overcalling style vs. 1N is extremely conservative in some ways, but against human experts, at least, I'm sure that would almost never happen.

What you said is debatable. What is not debatable is the fact that, even if we agreed with you for the sake of argument, you are talking as if that 5% changes a lot about the validity of my analysis. It does not.

[nullve]

Your main point, which I believe was

MrAce, on 2016-December-15, 15:48, said:

Playing ♦J from dummy wins ONLY if E has Qx or AQ tight ♦. If E has Qxx or AQxx ♦, you just shot yourself in the leg.

, is valid and I can't imagine we really disagree on anything here.

[Phil]

smerriman, on 2016-December-15, 18:19, said:

The J may be a small chance of winning, but it's a chance of a bonus trick nonetheless - is there anything to gain from not playing it? It will stop East from leading clubs, but I'm not sure that helps me much due to the heart situation.

Yes, since its quite possible East will be on lead momentarily, retaining the J gives you an avoidance position.

[MrAce]

nullve, on 2016-December-17, 08:52, said:

Your main point, which I believe was


, is valid and I can't imagine we really disagree on anything here.

Ok, I totally misunderstood you then. My bad sorry.

[msjennifer]

Win and play King of diamonds.There are good chances that if they are 2-2 they won't take the Ace more particularly if West has it. if they are 3-1 and East has AQX he may duck ,and if either has singleton Queen it will get smothered.

[smerriman]

Phil, on 2016-December-17, 09:19, said:

Yes, since its quite possible East will be on lead momentarily, retaining the J gives you an avoidance position.

Like I said - it will stop East from leading clubs, but I can't see how that gives me a better chance of gaining a trick vs the immediate trick. Seems it will just make it more likely opponents will knock out the hearts.