[smerriman]

My question isn't specifically about this hand, as there are probably other factors that I'm missing, but I find myself wondering this more and more often.

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West leads a trump and they break 3-2. I now want to guess diamonds in order to discard a heart loser.

Argument 1: With East having more hearts than West, if all other things were equal, West is at least an 8:7 favorite to hold the queen of diamonds.
Argument 2: With East opening the bidding, and only 16 HCP between them, if all other things were equal, East is more likely to hold missing honors.

Which of these arguments outweighs the other?

(There's also the fact I can finesse against West twice and East once which is also an important factor and means finessing against East may not work anyway, but it's more about balancing the above ideas in general that I'm wondering about. Maybe change the 3 to a 9 and swap a club for a fourth diamond for South.)

[MrAce]

I know you are not specifically asking how to play this hand but ....Who had the 3rd ♠?


There are also things to consider besides the vacant space.

• W did not raise hearts! With 4 card hearts or 3 card hearts and 4+ hcp he could have raised.
• Are you playing MP or IMP? Is your goal to make 4♠ or max tricks available?

Think about this way, you have 2♥+1♣+1♦ losers. Club finesse working is not getting you off the hook unless E has stiff or Kx ♣. But if he has more than Kx ♣ he also has at least 5 hearts and more likely 6 + 2 spades.

I would just exit with hearts after 3 round of spades. I may still have to guess diamonds if W has ♣ K but this guess will be easy after seeing W silent with ♣K and ♥ support. He should not have ♦Q too.
If East has the ♣K I am home when it is stiff or doubleton or Kxx. (he will be endplayed when he has Kxx) Only time it will be a problem is when East has Kxxx ♣, then I will guess diamonds to make.

[johnu]

Why did West lead a trump and not a heart? If West has ace of hearts, why wasn't there a heart raise? Are you playing against GIBs in which case, both questions are moot since nobody knows why GIB makes most leads?

In any case, I would consider argument 3.

Argument 3: Exit a heart and don't touch diamonds.

[MrAce]

johnu, on 2016-December-06, 23:05, said:

Why did West lead a trump and not a heart? If West has ace of hearts, why wasn't there a heart raise? Are you playing against GIBs in which case, both questions are moot since nobody knows why GIB makes most leads?

In any case, I would consider argument 3.

Argument 3: Exit a heart and don't touch diamonds.

Yeah it can be GIB. GIB preempts are more like GF bids rather than preempts.
Whoever programmed GIB preempts is definitely not from Europe!
For example, with strong NT hands, when my pd opened weak 2, I would invite. Against GIB, I am bidding and making game with almost all 12 ish hcp hands, even when I do not have fit!

[alok c]

As others said,these types of problems do not have general solutions,these are basically deal specific,play specific.

[Kaitlyn S]

johnu, on 2016-December-06, 23:05, said:

Why did West lead a trump and not a heart? If West has ace of hearts, why wasn't there a heart raise? Are you playing against GIBs in which case, both questions are moot since nobody knows why GIB makes most leads?

In any case, I would consider argument 3.

Argument 3: Exit a heart and don't touch diamonds.

East was on lead. This makes West likely to hold the ♡ King.

[smerriman]

Yep, I knew there'd be far better ways of playing this hand that didn't rely on my actual question.

But for arguments sake, let's say before there has even been a lead to trick 1 - on the bidding, who is currently the favorite to hold the queen of diamonds? The player with the large majority of points, or the player with less known non-diamonds? How far do you have to take those numbers before they balance out? (From the extremes of, say, opps having 10HCP, which makes East a certainty, to somehow knowing East has, say, 6-5, which makes West a near certainty).

[jogs]

smerriman, thank you for 400/300. 6 in morning, it helps to have large print.

Kaitlyn S, on 2016-December-06, 23:24, said:

East was on lead. This makes West likely to hold the ♡ King.

"West lead a trump", confused me.

smerriman, on 2016-December-07, 01:33, said:

Yep, I knew there'd be far better ways of playing this hand that didn't rely on my actual question.

West likely held the ♥K. If West also held the ♦Q, why didn't West raise hearts?
Play East for the ♦Q.

[billw55]

My first thought was the non-heart lead. To me this means that east lacks an honor sequence in hearts, most likely missing the king. That makes him even more likely to hold the ♦Q for his opening bid. (not sure how valid this is against robots)

Also, when you ask about vacant spaces and say trumps split 3-2, it would help to tell us who had the doubleton.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

the shape information is usually stronger, than the HCP information,
espesially if you are asking, who has a card with HCP value 1 or 2.
If you are looking for an Ace or a king, the card is more likely with
the higher amount.

Given that 16 HCP are missing, they may split from 0 : 16 to 6 : (9) 10,
and with 6 : 10, it is basically random.

As was pointed out, you have the chance to delay the guess, and you may
find out the HCP cards West holds, like the king of clubs and the jack
of spades.

With kind regards
Marlowe