[xeno123]

All vul, Robot IMPS:

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East lead the ♦K

What's the best line here? And do people agree with the splinter, which was a bit light by GIB's standards?

Most players were in four spades making five, with a couple of others in six going down one. Six was makeable as the cards lay.

[nige1]

xeno123 writes "All vul, Robot IMPS: East lead the ♦K
What's the best line here? And do people agree with the splinter, which was a bit light by GIB's standards?
Most players were in four spades making five, with a couple of others in six going down one. Six was makeable as the cards lay.

Spoiler

My guess: Cash ♦A. ♠AQ.
- If ♠ are 4-1, you probably need ♦ 3-3. Otherwise finesse ♥, Cash ♥A. ruff a ♥.
- If ♥K drops in 3, then ♠J, ♦ towards ♦J, hoping to make 5 X ♠s, 4 X ♥s, 2 X ♦s and 1 X ♣.
- If ♥K doesn't drop then ♣A, Ruff a ♣. Ruff a ♥, lead a ♦ hoping that East started with 3 ♠s and fewer than 3 ♣s..

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[xeno123]

I will note that your suggested line would have failed against the actual distribution of the hand (which was pretty vanilla).

I will post the full distribution of the actual hand later - just didn't want to bias the discussion of the best line.

[Kaitlyn S]

xeno123, on 2016-October-31, 13:37, said:

All vul, Robot IMPS:

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And do people agree with the splinter, which was a bit light by GIB's standards?

No. You are very close, but you have a 6-loser hand (5 1/2 adjusted.) The actual contract, which isn't that great, especially when you tell the opponents to lead diamonds, is enough evidence against the splinter. Your partner has a 7-loser hand (6 1/2 adjusted) which in itself should suggest a small slam with some to spare. Your partner has no wastage in clubs which should make his hand look even better than LTC suggests - if LTC suggests a small slam plus, and your hand doesn't have the CK, CQ, or CJ when partner has a singleton club, I would suspect that the two hands should produce decent play for a grand (maybe not enough to bid it though.)

I will grant you that North has a poor fitting hand with a singleton heart, so that LTC with a positive adjustment for no club wastage overestimates the hand. Still, if North has a hand such as:

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Here North has no club wastage and the fitting heart honor. He has 8 losers now but the bidding makes his hand look better. Still, after directing a diamond lead, even on 3-2 trumps and 4-2 or better hearts (not a gimme by any means), you can draw 3 trump and run hearts but you only have 11 tricks: 5 trumps including a ruff, 5 hearts, and 1 diamond.

If partner has more - good trumps, a fitting heart honor, and another card which will make 6S a good contract opposite this hand, he knows his hand is good fitting and will make an encouraging move over 1H-1S-3S. Now you are well placed to bid slam, having a maximum for your 3S bid.

xeno123, on 2016-November-01, 12:02, said:

I will note that your suggested line would have failed against the actual distribution of the hand (which was pretty vanilla).

I will post the full distribution of the actual hand later - just didn't want to bias the discussion of the best line.

You already did suggest something about the hand.

Nige's line was quite good IMO. Unless you assume diamonds are 3-3 (maybe doubleton KQ helps), you have to make some assumption about the ♥K. The fact that you told us that Nige's line fails against vanilla distribution implies that a line involving a ruffing finesse works better. However, that doesn't make it a better play. Nige is trying to make the hand when diamonds aren't 3-3 and I think that his line is as good as anything I came up with.

[xeno123]

Kaitlyn S, on 2016-November-01, 12:45, said:

You already did suggest something about the hand.

Nige's line was quite good IMO. Unless you assume diamonds are 3-3 (maybe doubleton KQ helps), you have to make some assumption about the ♥K. The fact that you told us that Nige's line fails against vanilla distribution implies that a line involving a ruffing finesse works better. However, that doesn't make it a better play. Nige is trying to make the hand when diamonds aren't 3-3 and I think that his line is as good as anything I came up with.

FWIW, in the actual hand the diamonds were 4-2 while the ♥K was onside.

I do agree my splinter was a stretch, but I was hoping the long hearts plus some club ruffs would be a good source of tricks if we have enough controls. And what am I going to do after a club cue bid here after a 3♠ bid? (Not sure if GIB would have made that cue bid or just bid game directly).

[Kaitlyn S]

xeno123, on 2016-November-01, 13:27, said:

And what am I going to do after a club cue bid here after a 3♠ bid? (Not sure if GIB would have made that cue bid or just bid game directly).

I'd like to think that GIB would have just bid game. There's a world of difference between an invitation and a game-forcing bid showing a good singleton.

Does GIB bid first or second round controls? If 4C guaranteed a first round control, you have a good 3S raise and would cooperate (I would at least make an attempt beyond game.)

If 4C just said "first or second round control" then partner might be showing an almost useless ♣K. I would still bid 4D but it's not clear to me that I have an attempt beyond game anymore.

However, it would be highly aggressive for North to look for slam after 1H-1S-3S (look at your actual hand, a not surprising construction and arguably the top of a 3S bid) but the heart wastage makes slam a poor proposition.

[xeno123]

nige1, on 2016-October-31, 19:15, said:

xeno123 writes "All vul, Robot IMPS: East lead the ♦K

Spoiler

My guess: Cash ♦A. ♠AQ.
- If ♠ are 4-1, you probably need ♦ 3-3. Otherwise finesse ♥, Cash ♥A. ruff a ♥.
- If ♥K drops in 3, then ♠J, ♦ towards ♦J, hoping to make 5 X ♠s, 4 X ♥s, 2 X ♦s and 1 X ♣.
- If ♥K doesn't drop then ♣A, Ruff a ♣. Ruff a ♥, lead a ♦ hoping that East started with 3 ♠s and fewer than 3 ♣s..

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I believe there is a slightly better line that doesn't require East to have three spades when the ♥K doesn't drop.

[hrothgar]

You have 8 spade tricks if you can get the full cross ruff.
Three bullets on the side takes you to 11

Hook the Queen of hearts for 12

[xeno123]

hrothgar, on 2016-November-01, 16:38, said:

You have 8 spade tricks if you can get the full cross ruff.
Three bullets on the side takes you to 11

Hook the Queen of hearts for 12

But you can't get all 8 spade ruffs

[xeno123]

Here is the actual hand - still waiting for someone to come up with the only winning line as the cards lie:

KD lead

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[Kaitlyn S]

xeno123, on 2016-November-02, 17:12, said:

Here is the actual hand - still waiting for someone to come up with the only winning line as the cards lie:

KD lead

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Well, now it's a double dummy problem. Duck the diamond, draw 2 trumps in hand, finesse the heart, ace of hearts, ruff a heart, diamon to jack, ruff a heart, CA and ruff a club to draw the last trump.

The play gets more interesting if East continues a diamond. You must ruff a club, trump to hand, ruff a club, overtake the SK, draw the last trump. When you lead the last trump, East is squeezed in hearts and diamonds. A heart discard lets you set up the suit with one ruff while a diamond discard makes your diamond good.

It is hard to imagine anyone finding this line at the table.

[nige1]

xeno123 "Here is the actual hand - still waiting for someone to come up with the only winning line as the cards lie"

Thank you for a pretty problem, xeno123. Agree with Katlyn S. You keep to tram-rails: Duck ♦K opening lead. Finesse ♦ continuation. Cross to ♣A. Ruff a ♣. Cross to ♠J. Ruff a ♣. Cross to ♠A. To reach this 6-card ending.

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Now, ♠Q catches East in a red-suit trump-squeeze:
- if East discards a ♦, then: Finesse ♥Q. Cash ♥A. Cash ♦A. Ruff a ♥ and Cash ♦9.
- If East discards a ♥, then: Finesse ♥Q. Cash ♥A. Ruff a ♥. Cross to ♦A. and Cash ♥J.

On reflection, I prefer xeno123's line to mine.

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[xeno123]

Kaitlyn S, on 2016-November-02, 17:28, said:

Well, now it's a double dummy problem. Duck the diamond, draw 2 trumps in hand, finesse the heart, ace of hearts, ruff a heart, diamon to jack, ruff a heart, CA and ruff a club to draw the last trump.

The play gets more interesting if East continues a diamond. You must ruff a club, trump to hand, ruff a club, overtake the SK, draw the last trump. When you lead the last trump, East is squeezed in hearts and diamonds. A heart discard lets you set up the suit with one ruff while a diamond discard makes your diamond good.

It is hard to imagine anyone finding this line at the table.

Oh my - I didn't see the richness here if East continues a diamond. That is a very pretty line - thanks for finding it.

The non-diamond continuation seems like something a high-level player could maybe find over the table. Once you realize you need the K♥ onside and you are going to be ruffing to set up your hearts, you can perhaps see that ducking gives you a late entry to your hand without running the risk of East winning a diamond and giving West a diamond ruff.

In the actual play I succumbed to that very diamond ruff.