[pdmunro]

Playing 2NT as 20-21, I opened 2NT with

S Q975
H Q3
D AK7
C AKQ3

Partner had

S A32
H 9764
D T864
C 75

About 4 pairs out of 16 pairs bid to 3NT. No one made it.

Please, what are your thoughts regarding hands that are suitable for 2NT openings, and what responder needs to raise to 3NT?

[BaldJean]

To open with 2 nt one should have only 1 weak suit at the most. Your hearts were very weak, and your spades could not be considered strong either, but you had 16 hcp in diamonds and clubs. Too lopsided for 2nt opener.

[the hog]

Playing a 20-22 2NT opening this is a clear cut opening.

Too lopsided for 2nt opener.

So what do you suggest then, 1C? Pray tell,what will be your rebid? You either play a particular range or you don't. What you don't do is to try to make excuses not to open a particular bid.

I would definitely ask for Majors with your partner's hand, particularly at Imps. Tough, you can't make them all.

[Codo]

Hi all,

you should and normally would have just one weak suit.
But what will you do, with your hand?
Open 1 Club and rebid what later?

No, if you have 20-21 HCPs balanced and 2 NT is your opening for that, you must open 2 NT.
But your hand had some points to be downgraded:
Qx in Heart, very solid Clubs, no extra length. So there is a possibility for you to downgrade to a 18/19 HCP NT. (I think I had..)

Pd bid 3 NT with 4333 and 4 HCPs.
Pds hand is very weak for his bid.
To pass 2 NT is a clear option too.
Wwithout any extra length and just 24 -25 HCPS 3 NT is no certanity at all. To make 9 tricks has less then 30 %.
But don`t bother about this hand, if you make every game, you don`t bid game often enough.

Both of your bids had been reasonable, but as both of you had been (very) optimistic, you reach a contract with no play...

Kind Regards

Roland

[pdmunro]

SIMULATIONS

I did some simulations using publicly available software. I used Pavlicek's RPDealer to deal hands & then analysed those hands with PS-Bridge software.

To repeat the situation:

Playing 2NT as 20-21, I (West) hold
S Q975
H Q3
D AK7
C AKQ3

Partner (East) turns up with
S A32
H 9764
D T864
C 75

Four of sixteen pairs on BBO bid to 3 NT.
No one makes it.

I did 20 simulations of each of the following scenarios
and determined the number of times W makes 3NT.

HYPOTHESES
I tested two basic hypotheses:
1) Give West a fifth club and he does better at 3NT
2) Give East 6 points and West does better at 3NT

The cards were set up so that East's hands were balanced
(4332, 4432, or 5332),
where East had 2-3 Spades and 2-4 Hearts,
so that EW did not have a major fit.



SET UP OF CARDS TIMES WEST MAKES 3NT  

1) Idea: W has 20 pts, E has Ace   2/20
Cards: See above  

2) Idea: West gets fifth club 2/20
Cards: W loses S5, gains C2
Result: No gain with fifth club

3) Idea: East has 5 points 5/20
Cards: East loses H9, gains HJ
Result: Improved chances with 5 points

4) Idea: East has 6 points 13/20
Cards: Random 6 points
Result: Simple + effective way to increase chances

5) Idea: W has 5 clubs & E has 6pts   8/20
Cards: W loses S5, gains C2
  E has random 6 points
Result: W loses out with extra club length! >

6) Idea: West has solid clubs, 20 points 14/20  
Cards: W: replace HQ with HJ
  W: replace C3 with CJ
Result: No extra gain
 
7) Idea: West has solid & long (5) clubs   12/20
Cards: W: replace HQ with HJ
  W: replace C3 with CJ
  W: loses S5, gains C2
  E: has 6 random points
Result: No extra gain

GENERAL RESULTS

Best not to go on to 3NT with less than 6 pts opposite 20 pts.
Probablity of making the 3NT is 13/20 (65%).
So 1 in 3 times, it will not make.

Surprised that longer clubs did not improve the situation -
it actually made the situation worse!
The problem seemed to be that EW were left too exposed in S & H.

I am presently asking myself:
Should I try and simulate the situation
where West's four points in S & H included an A or a K,
so that West is not so exposed in these suits?





 

[luis]

This is what happens when you have to preempt holding half the deck :-)

2NT is ok, with all my respect if you don't open this hand 2nt is just because you know the result.... What are you doing open 1m and then jump to 2nt showing 18-19 can be if you decide to downgrade your hand.

So you went down in 3NT, next board.

[JRG]

There is an interesting fact that I try to keep in mind:

12-13 HCP opposite 12-13 HCP makes 3NT very often (assuming suitable hand patterns). A balanced 24 to 25 HCP opposite zero usually fails to 9 tricks and can even go down in 2NT.

The point is that opposite 4 HCP (an Ace), you are less likely to be able to make 3NT than if the points were more evenly split. One of the reasons is that you have virtually no communications between the hands - you can cross to dummy once. Also, the 4-4-3-2 hand has no real source of long-suit tricks.

So, I'm not surprised that 3NT goes down. I don't think I would have raised 2NT to 3 (but it is certainly tempting).