[lamford]

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You reach 3NT by South after West has overcalled a spade and led the two of diamonds, fourth. I don't think I went for the right line; I am sure you will do better.

[SteveMoe]

Tempted to play LHO for 5=2=4=2. Don't think 6=1=4=2 finds a ♦ lead. Nor would 5=2=3=3 or similar. If 4=2=5=2, then LHO should hold the goods.
A10xxx xx Axxx xx is a modest 1-level overcall.

I choose to win the lead in hand (does RHO have the A?) and lead toward dummy's ♣s. If ♣s split so that I have 2 (not one) losers, then I will rely on the doubleton ♥k with LHO and play A and duck. That leaves the ♠Q entry for a later ♥ finesse.

[rhm]

deleted

[shyams]

I'd probably put up the ♦K at trick 1 and (assuming it holds) lead a low ♥ from dummy. I plan to play the ♥10 from hand if East plays low to trick 2.

Although East's best play with ♥Kx may be a low ♥ in theory, there aren't many who will be able to play small without some information leakage (pause for thought, hitch etc)

[nige1]

lamford, on 2016-July-02, 09:16, said:

You reach 3NT by South after West has overcalled a spade and led the two of diamonds, fourth. I don't think I went for the right line; I am sure you will do better.

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Finessing ♣J results in immediate success when LHO has ♣Qxx or ♣QT doubleton. Failing that, it often develops 5 tricks.

Alternatively, on a favourable lie, guessing ♥ right. would also work. Given that LHO is short in the round suits, playing on ♥ seems the better prospect.

IMO at trick one, you should play ♦K from dummy. First, try ♥, because, if that try fails, a perfect ♣ layout would still rescue you. (When you try ♣s first, you have to make uncomfortable discards).

[rhm]

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Whether you are going to establish cubs or hearts, you can not afford to loose the lead twice in the suit you are going to establish.
By the time you loose the lead again the defense has 5 tricks first, by establishing diamonds in addition to the aces in diamonds and spades.
So the question boils down are you more likely to loose 2 tricks by going after hearts or after clubs?
It is obvious that your chances are much better in clubs.
Win the diamond in hand and simply pay a club to the jack.

nige1, on 2016-July-04, 09:48, said:

(When you try ♣s first, you have to make uncomfortable discards).

I do not see this. If the club finesse wins I will establish the suit but not yet run it. Surely I can afford some heart discards and a spade.
Likewise if the finesse loses I have to assume clubs run thereafter, but I am in no hurry cashing them as long as the heart ace is not played yet(except if possible removing club exit cards from the defense).
If the defense tries to remove the ace of hearts prematurely (quite a difficult defense to find) I might be bale to duck and I am in a better position to get additional heart tricks if the defense attacks hearts.

nige1, on 2016-July-04, 09:48, said:

IMO at trick one, you should play ♦K from dummy. First, try ♥, because, if that try fails, a perfect ♣ layout would still rescue you.

This is a fallacy. Say you pay a heart to the ten which looses to the jack. The defense will now establish diamonds.
If you take the club finesse and it looses you have lost your chance trying for the heart king being doubeton.

Rainer Herrmann

[shyams]

rhm, on 2016-July-05, 03:20, said:

nige1, on 2016-July-04, 09:48, said:

IMO at trick one, you should play ♦K from dummy. First, try ♥, because, if that try fails, a perfect ♣ layout would still rescue you.

This is a fallacy. Say you pay a heart to the ten which looses to the jack. The defense will now establish diamonds.
If you take the club finesse and it looses you have lost your chance trying for the heart king being doubeton.

Rainer Herrmann

Even if the ♥A drops the doubleton King, we do not have 9 tricks without something in clubs (like the finesse).
If I were to guess, nige1 was simply saying 3-3 ♣ with Q onside for 9 tricks. I don't think that qualifies as "a fallacy".

[rhm]

shyams, on 2016-July-05, 07:10, said:

Even if the ♥A drops the doubleton King, we do not have 9 tricks without something in clubs (like the finesse).
If I were to guess, nige1 was simply saying 3-3 ♣ with Q onside for 9 tricks. I don't think that qualifies as "a fallacy".

If the ♥A drops the king you play the queen of spades next, which assuming West has the ♠A is very likely to make the contract.
West would have to be 5-5 in spades diamonds for you to go down now, in which case clubs will not be 3-3 anyway.
Queen third in clubs is just 18%.
I am pretty sure that this is not more probable than the ace dropping the king and anyway it does not make starting with hearts a better line than starting with clubs first.

Rainer Herrmann

[rhm]

On reflection I see 2 lines, which are close:

Playing on hearts:

Win diamond King.
Cash ♥A and play a second heart to the ten unless West dropped an honor on the first heart, in which case you finesse the ♥8.
Now you can take full advantage of

nige1, on 2016-July-04, 09:48, said:

IMO at trick one, you should play ♦K from dummy. First, try ♥, because, if that try fails, a perfect ♣ layout would still rescue you.

Paying on clubs:

Win diamond in hand and start with club finesse either to the jack or 9.

Which line is better?
They seem to be close.
Maybe the heart line has a slight edge, because East has more vacant spaces than West.

Rainer Herrmann

[wanoff]

I would try and combine club and heart chances.
Win ♦Q and play a spade to Q, to cash ♣AK pitching a spade.
If 10 or Q appears I can play clubs with ♥A as an entry. If not, play a heart to 10, succeeding whenever East has ♥J to 2,3 or 4. (or West KJ doubleton)

[rhm]

wanoff, on 2016-July-06, 03:14, said:

I would try and combine club and heart chances.
Win ♦Q and play a spade to Q, to cash ♣AK pitching a spade.
If 10 or Q appears I can play clubs with ♥A as an entry. If not, play a heart to 10, succeeding whenever East has ♥J to 2,3 or 4. (or West KJ doubleton)

The ♥T wins.
How do you continue?

Rainer Herrmann

[lamford]

rhm, on 2016-July-06, 01:32, said:

On reflection I see 2 lines, which are close:

Playing on hearts:

Win diamond King.
Cash ♥A and play a second heart to the ten unless West dropped an honor on the first heart, in which case you finesse the ♥8.
Now you can take full advantage of


Paying on clubs:

Win diamond in hand and start with club finesse either to the jack or 9.

Which line is better?
They seem to be close.
Maybe the heart line has a slight edge, because East has more vacant spaces than West.

Rainer Herrmann

I think you are right in giving the best lines, I won the lead with the king, cashed ace, king of clubs, which I think just needs an honour to fall doubleton, and then played a heart. East flew with the king and they cleared the diamonds. West was 5-1-4-3 and pretty much any line other than the one I chose worked!