[manudude03]

I had a few interesting boards last night. Here is one of them.

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MPs scoring, all red. 3S is pre-emptive. Your call?

[Mbodell]

This is a good hand for X here to include "bid 3nt with a stopper, otherwise treat this as responsive/scrambling". I can X and then correct to clubs. At MP I'm less worried about 6 clubs and more worried about 3nt.

[rmnka447]

+1 for Mbodell's response.

An immediate 4 ♠ may get you too high if partner bids a major. Double keeps 3 NT in play if partner can find that call. And I can bid ♣ over other bids.

[Jinksy]

I would be worried about partner passing a double. I would guess the archetypal hand for him here is a strong NT with no S stop. If I could bid a forcing 4♣ I'd be tempted to, since if P has no spade stop then 5♣ shouldn't be a bad spot even at MPs, so we might as well investigate slam properly - but I'm not sure whether it would be forcing, and still less sure whether my Ps would agree. Ergo 6.

[gszes]

I prefer using 4s as blackwood and 4n as being 2 places to play. Absent those this looks like a great bash to 6c and we can blame the preempts for us missing 7 when it is there. The chances of 3n being right seem to border on nonexistence and it is hugely unlikely p has a strongish 1 suited hand given our overall power. Expecting a normal tox and with lho opening the bidding the hand should be easy to play (even if it goes down sigh).

[StevenG]

Why do people want a 0% board when partner is missing both aces?

[Fluffy]

Partner and LHO are equally strong on average, so ♠A, ♥AK ♦K will tend to split equally, the only advantage we have is that ♥K doens't need to be a trick, but it is not enough to make 6♣ odds on.

[Jinksy]

 Fluffy, on 2016-March-23, 04:08, said:

Partner and LHO are equally strong on average

I don't think this is true. LHO has (presumably) a five-card spade suit, so (depending on style) might have strained to open. P has (presumably) a three-card spade suit, which isn't a 3-level double if he doesn't have >min opening values. If we give opener more of P's presumed spades, P needs slightly fewer values to have acted as he did, but so does opener. So I expect P to be something in the range of 2.5-3 points stronger than LHO on average.

[Fluffy]

 Jinksy, on 2016-March-23, 05:31, said:

I don't think this is true. LHO has (presumably) a five-card spade suit, so (depending on style) might have strained to open. P has (presumably) a three-card spade suit, which isn't a 3-level double if he doesn't have >min opening values. If we give opener more of P's presumed spades, P needs slightly fewer values to have acted as he did, but so does opener. So I expect P to be something in the range of 2.5-3 points stronger than LHO on average.

Sorry, my partner's don't do silly doubles with 3 spades, I expect spades to be divided 5521 90% of the time at least. RHO is too weak and/or too balanced to raise to 4.

[gnasher]

I'd expect spades to be 6=2=4=1 most of the time, which if anything suggests that LHO is allowed to be weaker than partner.

Not that I really care. 6♣ just looks obvious, given that we don't have any way to check for aces or initiate cue-bidding. If that's going to be a zero when it goes down, presumably it will be a top when it makes.

[Jinksy]

 Fluffy, on 2016-March-23, 06:06, said:

Sorry, my partner's don't do silly doubles with 3 spades, I expect spades to be divided 5521 90% of the time at least. RHO is too weak and/or too balanced to raise to 4.

What do they do over 1♠ with xxx AKJx KQJx KJx?

[Zelandakh]

 Jinksy, on 2016-March-23, 10:24, said:

What do they do over 1♠ with xxx AKJx KQJx KJx?

They call the TD and find out who really has the ♣K. If we have 13 and they hold 18, that means 1♠ was opened with a 9 count. I would think ♠AKJ + ♥A is more likely than that.

[Fluffy]

Obviously it is me, as partner has 14 cards. So his ♣K belongs to another deal.

[Fluffy]

 gnasher, on 2016-March-23, 06:50, said:

I'd expect spades to be 6=2=4=1 most of the time, which if anything suggests that LHO is allowed to be weaker than partner.

Exactly, and he didn't open 2♠ because he has 2 aces .

Seriusly, I was pretty sure of the 5521, but this is based on my experience here in Spain, it wouldn't surprise me if you people on England don't bid 3♠ with 5 and nothing.

[oldem]

The distribution of spades (WNES) is something like: 5341 or 6241. Assume that opener has 11-13 HCPs, partner has 11-13 HCPs, then E cannot have more than 5 HCPs. E also has no singleton, since in this case, he would have jumped right to 4S, not 3S. Your ♣ suit is solid (7222). Therefore, the best chance for game is 5♣.

[Fluffy]

 oldem, on 2016-March-26, 21:18, said:

The distribution of spades (WNES) is something like: 5341 or 6241. Assume that opener has 11-13 HCPs, partner has 11-13 HCPs, then E cannot have more than 5 HCPs. E also has no singleton, since in this case, he would have jumped right to 4S, not 3S. Your ♣ suit is solid (7222). Therefore, the best chance for game is 5♣.

Do you expect partner to have 2 clubs?, and do you expect East to jump to game with a yarborough?

[bluerib]

 Fluffy, on 2016-March-27, 02:49, said:

Do you expect partner to have 2 clubs?, and do you expect East to jump to game with a yarborough?

I expect 2 clubs in partner's hand, since such 222 distribution is most likely. In the position of East, I surely will jump to 4S if I had 5 small spades, a singleton/void somewhere and even with 0 hcps.

[FrancesHinden]

 StevenG, on 2016-March-23, 01:41, said:

Why do people want a 0% board when partner is missing both aces?

Because they want a good board when 6C makes. This seems a bit of a pointless question - there's no way to find out if partner has two aces, so you are left guessing whether he does (bid 6C) or .doesn't (bid 4S or 5C). Your matchpoint expectation is a function of the probability that it is making.

If you really start getting subtle, it may be relevant how long the event is, and whether you are trying to win or to qualify for something. if the latter, then matchpoint expectation is less relevant than avoiding dreadful boards; if you are trying to win a short event then you are likely to need 65%+ and can't take too many average- results.

[FrancesHinden]

 bluerib, on 2016-March-27, 06:59, said:

I expect 2 clubs in partner's hand, since such 222 distribution is most likely. In the position of East, I surely will jump to 4S if I had 5 small spades, a singleton/void somewhere and even with 0 hcps.

But partner has made a take-out double of spades. That usually holds at least 3 clubs.

[Fluffy]

I find it curious that ♠Q Is a negative factor, it forces West to have more values outside spades (and also East to some degree).