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Hand Evaluation: Distinguishing between HCP and distribution when deciding how to bid (and also looking at AK vs QJs)

#1 User is offline   Elyk25 

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Posted 2016-March-11, 14:47

Hello All!

So I'm a relatively newer player and I was wondering for some advice on some observations I've had with experimenting with my hand evaluation style.

Some major areas I've been testing with different evaluations are:

-When to open those 11 pt hands
-When to open minimum NT hands

Messing around with light openers my general understanding is that is best done in 3rd/4th seat? In general if a hand has 12 HCPs with" good distribution" (mostly A's and K's, sequences, good shortness, good length, etc) I've been opening them (regardless of seat). For 11 pt hands I've been some what struggling in determining rather or not to open those borderline hands (usually something like 11 HCP, with a decent 5 card major or something). A general rule I've been using for opening these light openers is the hand should satisfy the Rule of 20 and have 2 defensive tricks (I've adapted this useful tool from this great book I've read by swiss champion Mel Colchamiro). However these 11HCP hands with a 5 card major and that only add up to 19 for the rule of 20 are somewhat bothering me-- I'm still can decide if as I general rule I want to open these types of hands or not (specifically in 1/2nd seat).

Another thing that I've tried a few times that I have yet to be convinced is a bad habit is considering distribution points for length and honor balance (AKs vs QJs) for opening 1NT (particularly in cases where say you have 14HCP, but a nice suit with almost all As and Ks). I've notice occasionally while playing some hands online that I've opened 1NT is some cases where others have decided to just open a minor. The times I've done this I'd say in general the result has favored well due to the fact that the 1NT usually keeps the opponents out of the auction and lets us get to a nice partscore if partner is a passed hand or had a minimum 6-9 (Especially in the case of partner being a passed hand)-- the bad part of this of course is the threat of overbidding in those auctions where partner has 10 HCPs and decides to push to game.

Any advice how to settle these situations? If you have any criticism, might you at least see the benefit to maybe regularly doing this in certain situations (at favorable vulnerability, after partner is a passed hand, in IMPs vs. MPs, etc)? If you agree, do you have any additional advice to add or other similar situations this sort of examination of hand evaluation might be useful?

Thanks Everyone!!
:-)
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#2 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2016-March-11, 15:41

Keep playing, keep observing the results, and you will be better off than listening to me.

I opened 1NT on a 14 count, with a ten in one suit and T9 in another. Pard had 10 highs, I Ianded in 3NT off 1, not good. But it might have worked.

I open most but not all 12s, usually not an 11. The 11 should have some other nice features.

In 3rd position I like to open a bit light with a major, not with a minor. After P-1m-2NT I have nowhere to go if 1m was on an 11 count. I recommend some version of drury.

In 4th position a lot of people like the "rule of 15". Add the number of spades to the number of hcps , if less than 15 pass it out. If 15 or more, open, providing it looks like an opening hand generally. I am not fond of mechanical rules but probably with most hands where I have a modest hcp holding and I am short in spades I would pass it out.

Good luck.
Ken
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#3 User is offline   ggwhiz 

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Posted 2016-March-11, 17:22

I don't open as many 11 counts as most but with shape (at least 5-4) and short spades it's often now or never. Anticipate if you will be able to come in later, as in almost always if you have spades.

1nt can often have a 5-card major but Aces and Kings are meant for suit play, softer cards open 1nt.

Rule of 15 for 4th seat here but if you can see bidding to the 3 level (ie. a 6-card minor go for it) and poor opening bids in the 11-12 pt range can open a weak 2 putting them under pressure. It's never a truly "weak" 2 in pass out seat.
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#4 User is offline   WesleyC 

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Posted 2016-March-11, 18:58

In terms of adding points for honor balance and long suits you're definitely on the right track.

If you want a more accurate HCP evaluation consider using:

Aces = 4.3, Kings = 3.0, Queens = 1.8, Jacks = 0.8, Tens = 0.1

Then add about 0.5 for a 5c suit and upgrading/downgrading liberally based on overall texture.

Keep in mind that opening strength is primarily a style thing and there aren't black and white rules. Feel free to experiment until you find a style that you like!
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#5 User is offline   rmnka447 

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Posted 2016-March-12, 06:52

So far, it's sounds like you're doing fine with considering both HCP and defensive tricks in determining if you open. Also, your using defensive tricks again with Rule of 20 openers is very good also.

12 HCP and 2 defensive tricks is a pretty solid standard for opening 1 level suit bids. As the number of defensive tricks goes up, you can open with less HCP. As the number of defensive tricks goes down you open with more. Typically, most 11 HCP, 2 1/2 defensive trick hands and all 11 HCP 3 QT should be opened. (Caveat: 11 HCP, 3 defensive trick hands have to be AK in one suit and A in another suit. Some experts won't open 4-3-3-3 hands with only 11 HCP, 3 defensive tricks.)

So if you hold, say something like AQJxx xxx Axx xx, you have 11 HCP, 2 1/2 defensive tricks. This adds to only 19 on a rule of 20 basis, but would be a hand most really good players would open 1 .

But you could take and rearrange the honors in that hand to have only 11 HCP, 2 defensive tricks and opening or not becomes less clear. Which way you would fall on each of those possible hands gets into principles of hand evaluation which can be a lot to cover. Let me say that there are a number of factors to consider -- honors in long suits (positive) versus honors in short suits (negative, honors working together (positive) versus honors being alone (negative), number of intermediate cards, intermediates working with honors (positive) or not (positive), AKs (positive) versus QJs (negative), unguarded honors (negative), etc. The more positive factors you have, the more you value the hand. The more negative factors you have, the less you value the hand.

So some possible hands in order of value best to worst would be:

QJ109x A10x A10x xx (1)
QJxxx Axx Axx xx (2)
Q109xx Jxx Axx Ax (3)
Jxxxx Axx Axx Qx (4)

Probably, quite a few players would open the first 2 hands, less the third, and not too many the fourth hand.
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#6 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2016-March-12, 09:00

You don't mention what is your basic system (SAYC?). This can have an effect. I play Acol with a weak NT I am never passing with 12 (if balanced I open 1NT, if unbalanced then 12 is always enough). Balanced 11 counts are too weak, but most unbalanced 11 counts (and some unbalanced 10 counts) are good enough.

Another important factor is your likely rebid. If I hold 5 hearts and 4 diamonds,I have an easy rebid and I can open on shaded values. If I hold 5 hearts and 4 clubs I will have a problem if partner responds Two Diamonds and will want to keep my opening up to standard.

Other good features are honour cards in your long suits and honour cards in combination. 10s and 9s can be valuable in long suits and in suits where you hold honour cards. I tend to downgrade unsupported honours and honours in short suits.

Look at your shape. The less balanced the better. For example a 5431 shape is worth more than a 5422 shape.

Finally, remember that bridge is a partnership game. The most important thing is that you and partner should be on the same wavelength.
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#7 User is offline   rmnka447 

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Posted 2016-March-12, 11:31

View PostTramticket, on 2016-March-12, 09:00, said:

You don't mention what is your basic system (SAYC?). This can have an effect. I play Acol with a weak NT I am never passing with 12 (if balanced I open 1NT, if unbalanced then 12 is always enough). Balanced 11 counts are too weak, but most unbalanced 11 counts (and some unbalanced 10 counts) are good enough.

Another important factor is your likely rebid. If I hold 5 hearts and 4 diamonds,I have an easy rebid and I can open on shaded values. If I hold 5 hearts and 4 clubs I will have a problem if partner responds Two Diamonds and will want to keep my opening up to standard.

Other good features are honour cards in your long suits and honour cards in combination. 10s and 9s can be valuable in long suits and in suits where you hold honour cards. I tend to downgrade unsupported honours and honours in short suits.

Look at your shape. The less balanced the better. For example a 5431 shape is worth more than a 5422 shape.

Finally, remember that bridge is a partnership game. The most important thing is that you and partner should be on the same wavelength.

Good comments, especially the last sentence.
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#8 User is offline   rmnka447 

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Posted 2016-March-15, 11:40

I was going to suggest earlier possibly obtaining "Hand Evaluation" by Marty Bergen to help answer some of your questions. I thought I had a copy, but, alas, I didn't. So I had one rushed to me and got it today. It's an easily readable 64 pages and excellent, so I heartily recommend it. It was available on Amazon for about $10.
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