[hokum]

Partner doubles again, back to you South... (IMPs)

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[hokum]

I guess I'm really asking:

• Which hand types double 3♠?
  
• Which hand types pass the double?

[SteveMoe]

Depends on agreement.
What should be true is that partner has game or near game values. Regardless of agreement this double announces we own the hand (or its corollary - they made a mistake).
If your agreement is takeout, then 1=4=4=4 or 1=(345) are possible. Since this hand can always raise partner, this seems a poor choice. Note that hands holding a 5-card suit do not have a 2-level free bid. (Negative freeloaders have to double with all game going hands).
If you have discussed and agreed cooperative penalty doubles then partner should have a doubleton spade and one of these shapes: 2=5=3=3 or 2=4=(34) and near game values. I think this is the most rational and likely use for this second double. Partner always has a raise with takeout hand patterns. That didn't happen here.
If you play this as penalty, then partner needs 4 spade cards (with 2 of the top 5 honors).
In this auction, partner likely has 2 spade cards. You should choose pass. 3NT could be a stretch but it is not out of the question.

[mike777]

I have a terrible hand. I lean towards pass as partner never directly supported d.

I think our options are pass or 5d in case pard had more than:


x...AKxx..Axxx...Jxxx

[dave_beer]

3NT with PASS as 2nd choice.

The 2nd double shows at least game values. If partner has primary ♦ support and interest in ♥ and no interest in 3NT he could have bid 4♦; if he has extra ♣ length he could have bid 4♣. It is not clear that either 4♣ or 4♦ would be forcing without discussion. If he can't afford to bid 4♠ then DBL is the only call left with game-forcing that allows us to get to 3NT.

[dave_beer]

mike777, on 2016-January-07, 20:45, said:

I have a terrible hand. I lean towards pass as partner never directly supported d.

I think our options are pass or 5d in case pard had more than:


x...AKxx..Axxx...Jxxx

I think partner should bid 4♦ with that hand.

[Caitlynne]

I think you pass because it is intelligent. Gender has nothing to do with it.

Partner second double has confirmed game invitational values (e.g., 10+ HCP) and is unlikely to have good 4 card diamond support (and will NEVER have 5 card diamond support). Given that, 4 card heart length (and possibly 5 card length) is expected. If partner had 8 clubs, surely he would bid 4C. Therefore, partner rarely has a spade void and most often will have 1 or 2 spades (exactly 1 spade if the opponents bidding can be trusted).

At 3Sx, we are guaranteed to take 1 spade trick and will likely take 2 hearts, 1 diamond, and 1 club. And it could be better than that. With a minimum hand and no strong fit, we are unlikely to be able to make a game (3NT) or a 4 level contract.

This reasoning is confirmed by a Law of Total Tricks analysis. They have 9 trump, we have at best 8 (in diamonds or clubs). That's 17 total trump and 17 total tricks. If we can take 10 tricks, they will take 7 and be set 2 tricks. Even if we can make 9 tricks (e.g., a 3NT game that seems tenuous with a single spade stopper, no ability to cut communications in spades since they are expected to divide 5-4, and no strong fitting suit that likely will produce a ready supply of tricks), they still go down at least 1 in 3Sx.

[Cyberyeti]

I'm a little biased as partner for me can't hold 4 diamonds on this sequence. Can game be on ? sure partner can have Jx, 109xxx, AQx, A109 and on a spade lead I very likely have 9 tricks, on a club lead I probably do, otherwise I can just play hearts. Is 3♠ definitely going off ? no, partner can have as much as x, xxxxx, AQJ, AQJx and if the opposing hands are unkind we're not beating this (possibly unless partner gets his hands on a stiff trump lead and declarer is asleep and gets the hearts wrong) with 3N or maybe 5♦ making.

3N can easily fall foul of partner having a small stiff spade and you not having 9 running tricks.

At IMPS I'm not signing for 3♠X= so I'm bidding but what is not clear, probably 3N

[helene_t]

P has only four hearts since he has the values for a 2♥ bid but didn't bid it. So 4♥ is far down the list. I would sooner bid 4♦ or even 4♣.

I would bid 3nt but pass is reasonable.

[nige1]

hokum, on 2016-January-07, 18:32, said:

Partner doubles again, back to you South... (IMPs)

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Agree with Caitlynne. I rank

• Pass = Like a person who reckons that partner has a good hand but no suit to bid over LHO's 1♠. Hence, he's likely to be flattish with 4 ♥s. There may be better contracts than 3♠X but opponents have deprived us of the bidding-space to explore for them.
• 3N = Reasonable shot.
• 4♦ = Committal.
• 4♣ = Misdescriptive.
• 4♥ = Weird or wired .

[zillahandp]

Caitlynne is spot on (why did we not open 1nt, ) p cannot have four ds , i have min opener, pass and take 2/5oo what lead. Qhts looks best.
No point asking questions if one p has bid badly

[Vampyr]

zillahandp, on 2016-January-08, 14:58, said:

Caitlynne is spot on (why did we not open 1nt, )

Obviously this hand is not in our NT range.

[wank]

4 spades. we've got a great hand for slam. if it turns out they only have 8 spades, oops.

[jillybean]

Although I don't have the balls to do it, I will pass. This is a optional double and I have no clear bid, let's take our plus.

[ahydra]

3NT at imps (call me a wimp if you will), pass at MPs.

ahydra

[zenbiddist]

Caitlynne, on 2016-January-08, 09:50, said:

I think you pass because it is intelligent. Gender has nothing to do with it.

Partner second double has confirmed game invitational values (e.g., 10+ HCP) and is unlikely to have good 4 card diamond support (and will NEVER have 5 card diamond support). Given that, 4 card heart length (and possibly 5 card length) is expected. If partner had 8 clubs, surely he would bid 4C. Therefore, partner rarely has a spade void and most often will have 1 or 2 spades (exactly 1 spade if the opponents bidding can be trusted).

At 3Sx, we are guaranteed to take 1 spade trick and will likely take 2 hearts, 1 diamond, and 1 club. And it could be better than that. With a minimum hand and no strong fit, we are unlikely to be able to make a game (3NT) or a 4 level contract.

This reasoning is confirmed by a Law of Total Tricks analysis. They have 9 trump, we have at best 8 (in diamonds or clubs). That's 17 total trump and 17 total tricks. If we can take 10 tricks, they will take 7 and be set 2 tricks. Even if we can make 9 tricks (e.g., a 3NT game that seems tenuous with a single spade stopper, no ability to cut communications in spades since they are expected to divide 5-4, and no strong fitting suit that likely will produce a ready supply of tricks), they still go down at least 1 in 3Sx.

Thanks for a detailed answer Caitlynne.
What do you think is a minimum for pard's double? For example - would you have doubled with x,K9xxx,Axx,Qxxx?

[ggwhiz]

Cyberyeti, on 2016-January-08, 10:22, said:

At IMPS I'm not signing for 3♠X= so I'm bidding but what is not clear, probably 3N

Partner knew it was imps before doubling so I'm passing period. I want the diamonds to look more like tricks (add the queen?) before I bid 3nt.

If we can make game we can likely get 500 for a small loss but the prime directive is to go plus.

[kenberg]

I find this tough but I am now one of two people who voted for 4D. Here is my thinking:

Partner has four hearts, not five. it has already been mentioned that if he has five hearts and enough for this second double then he had a 2H bid on his first round.

Partner has (at most) one spade. W could have six spades and partner none. But probably he has one.


This gives him eight minor suit cards. Probably 1=4=3=5.
If 2/6 he might well have bid 4C instead of the second double, and if 4-4 he might well have bid 4D. So, fairly likely, he is 1=4=3=5.
If he has, say, x / Axxx / Qxx / AQxxx it seems that we have one spade, two hearts assuming the finesse is on, and five probable (but not certain) clubs. That's 8, not 9. There are a number of variations. On some we have 9, on some we have 8, I think 3NT is a stretch.

How about passing? Could be. E will have some shape, and I would not expect him to be short in hearts since that would give W too many of them. So E is short in one or both minors. Passing could be right. It could be very wrong.

Fundamentally, partner's double says he has too much strength to let them play 3S undoubled, but he is not sure where we should play it. Maybe I am a chicken, but I say 4D. I agree with Caitlynne that the gender of the chicken does not matter. If pard has some still unexpressed extras, he might go 5D. But probably it gets passed out at 4D.

[gszes]

Wank feels slam is in the picture while I do not but Wank is spot on that we have a superb hand given the bidding (if we had no wasted values in spades including the ace I would be a lot more bullish about slam). What p did NOT bid is just as important as what p bid. We know after the 2nd x that p is invitational + so our decision is greatly simplified.

Is pass reasonable? I would be surprised if we score 500 often and that will most likely be offset by the occasional disaster of the opps making. Pass may well work much better t Mp where the sheer number of +200 makes up for the occasional -umptyump. At IMPS this seems like a very bad case of risk vs reward were we are trying for +200 and totally dismissing the +130 or more we can achieve at 4m (making that +200 seem much more frail than before)

Is the 4 level really all that unsafe?? We expect [p to have around 10HCP for their 2nd x (as short spades) On average they will most likely hold AKQJ spread out some way over the non spade suits. A careful inspection. With no spade losers their 10hcp + our 9HCP = 19 out of the remaining 30 so the opps have 11 and would need toscore 4 tricks to set us that is probably close to impossible thus making the 4 level seem VERY safe (if we are in the right strain). How about the 5 level?

If we take a careful look at the AKQJ probability we will see that there are very few of those that will allow us to go set at 5m (if we are in the right strain). The risk vs reward of 5m seems particularly slanted in favor of reward especially when vulnerable. So since bidding seems better than passing what other strains are available?

3N seems suicidal with a single stop I also wonder if there are any hands that fit the bidding where 3n makes and 5m does not. Not only that but there are tons of hand types where 3n might easily go down 2 where 5m makes (x KTxx Axxx QJxx).

5m should be the target contract and the right continuation should be

4N

telling p to choose the best strain taking into consideration we cannot hold more than 5Dia (we would bid 5d)or 3Clu (we would bid 5c).

[mgoetze]

Caitlynne, on 2016-January-08, 09:50, said:

Given that, 4 card heart length (and possibly 5 card length) is expected.

I certainly expected 4 hearts when partner doubled the first time and I don't expect 5 for the reason stated by Helene.