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Awkward guess

Poll: Awkward guess (18 member(s) have cast votes)

Your bid

  1. 4H - red suit finesses (4 votes [22.22%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 22.22%

  2. Pass - too rich (5 votes [27.78%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 27.78%

  3. X - it shows this, right? (5 votes [27.78%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 27.78%

  4. 3NT - shut out East, no D ruff (4 votes [22.22%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 22.22%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1 User is offline   shevek 

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Posted 2015-August-31, 18:59



3 pre-emptive. Your guess

Butler IMPs
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#2 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2015-September-01, 05:20

3N

Preempts work so this is a guess especially since the range of the overcall is so vast. I opted for 3n primarily to reach game. There is indeed some risk here but at NT all of my offensive power is pretty much safe from attack and the opps opener behind me is no big deal. We will also have a very clear idea on how to proceed once we see the dummy given the bidding. The main downside is there might be no play but if p at least has a decent heart suit lho will be hard pressed to find an x so the "disaster" scenarios are severely limited
and that vul game bonus sure is nice. x as cards is a real gamble here since the overcall range is so vast we could get really hammered with them making 3sx when p passes with no where to go.

3n = 8 4h = 7 pass = 5 x = 4
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#3 User is offline   Siegmund 

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Posted 2015-September-01, 22:32

At IMPs I am a timid passer. A speculative double is tempting. It might even work half the time so I might try it at MP.

In my opinion 3NT is outright suicidal. We rate to have almost exactly half the deck and we don't have much prospect of a second spade stopper. 4H is a gamble on partner having a maximum and us getting in in time to pull trumps before E ruffs diamonds or W ruffs spades but I can imagine it working say 25% of the time, and pushing the opponents to a speculative 4S a similar amount of the time. 3NT doesn't push them to 4S.
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#4 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2015-September-02, 09:44

Pass - my partners don't promise much for a 1-level overcall (maybe a lead-directing 7-count). And I have a balanced hand with so seven points in their suits.
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#5 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2015-September-02, 10:34

Overcalling style is key here, a non exclusive 1 over 1 is a better hand for us than it is for most people, so I'd be looking at game. X does this best for us although might get us to the wrong game.
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#6 User is offline   jbaptistec 

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Posted 2015-September-03, 11:57

Awkward guess indeed. Opposite a simple 1 overcall game is dubious, especially with that distribution (ops will quickly set up vs 3NT and ruffs vs 4), and X just transfers the guess to partner (who will probably score -730 a bit too often for the X to be good).

Against very good opponents, I would pass at IMPs and X at MPs.
Otherwise 4, in case they want to push to 4.
Tired of red/black ♠♥♦♣.
For 4 suits, why not 4 colors ?
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#7 User is offline   shevek 

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Posted 2015-September-04, 05:27

The full hand:



So 4 is worst, -500, and 3NT gets a lucky +600.
Pass is 100. Some partners will find 3NT if you double.

Pd should have a good hand to bid 1 over 1 at IMPs so it looks right to act.
Hope you guessed right.
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#8 User is offline   BillPatch 

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Posted 2015-September-04, 08:12

So with the 3NT bid, "Suicide is Painless," as the theme song from Mash goes.
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