Posted 2015-August-06, 19:14
If we bring in the spades we have 5+1+5+1 =12 tricks. If we don't bring in the spades, we need a club ruff.
I think there is potential for clever opponents here.
Heart ace, club ace, small spade from the board.
Cases:
I .The spade Q appears.
I take it, small spade back to the ace draw trump. I get five spades, five diamonds, two side aces.
II. Low spade on my right. I play the T, losing to the Q.
Spades are no worse than 4-1, and 3 are still out.
If the high heart comes back I ruff low in my hand, ruff the club high, lead the last trump back to my KJ8. I draw the trumps, run diamonds tossing two clubs from my hand.
Or maybe a spade comes back. Win it in hand, ruff a club with the ace, ruff a heart low (I am trusting that the heart double was not on the stiff king) draw trump, etc.
If a diamond or a club is returned trick 4, I ruff the club high and draw trump, or I win the diamond, ruff the club high and draw trump.
III. Low spade on my right and the T holds, lho following low. This seems to me to be the tricky part. It's natural to lead a spade to the ace, expecting to claim. I won't be happy if rho shows out, meaning lho declined to produce his Q from Qxxx. Now I will be down, or at least it is likely.If I try running diamonds immediately. he ruffs and leads another trump, killing my ruff. If I come to my hand with a diamond and ruff, now there are no more trump on the board and when lho wnis a trump he cashes a club.
Maybe I misunderstand the KR line, but if it goes heart ace, club ace, spade ace then spade to the J it won't be good if a third spade comes back. There are only 11 tricks after the spade hook fails so you need the club ruff, right?
I think that the line I suggest is going to work unless lho started with Qxxx and was very clever. I do not want to go down playing for that lie and that cleverness, so as far as I can see, when the T holds I play small to the Ace. I congratulate him if indeed he played low with Qxxx. I could have prevailed by leading small to the 9, but that seems very hard to explain if rho produces the Q and another trump.
If when I lead a small spade from the board at trick 3 shows out, I guess I am going down. But it's mps, so I need to think of what to do.
Speaking of Trump, the Donald is on, I suppose I must watch.
Ken
I guess ♥A. ♣A. Run ♠9. If LHO win's ♠Q then win the return, ruff a ♣, and claim.
If both follow and ♠9 wins then finesse ♠T.
If that wins and and ♠s are 3-2 or 4-1, then claim.
If LHO takes ♠T with ♠Q and returns a ♠, then unless ♥Q ruffs out, you are 1 down but not 2 down
If LHO shows out on ♠9, then, (as Gib indicates left), you can sometime survive by cashing some ♦s and cross-ruffing.