[kgsmith]

Hi all

We were playing ostensibly SAYC. Partner was disappointed to miss 6♣. Would you like to be there? If so, is there a sensible way to get there?

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Scoring is IMPs, if it helps.

Thanks,
Kevin

[Jinksy]

Quote

Would you like to be there?

Probably not, but on most sequences I can construct I'd bid it anyway.

You have IIRC about a 40% chance of losing a club, which seems to leave you virtually dead in the water. If you pick up clubs for no losers, you still have to find a 12th trick. You have various chances (diamonds 3-3, trumps 2-2, both H honours falling in three rounds, or finding the right honour onside in Ss are the ones I can see), that probably add up to less than the ~83% chance that I make it you'd want to make it odds on.

[kenrexford]

These types of deals are tough if you think sloppy/practical. Consider the problem from East's point of view. He has a run-of-the mill bare opening hand, scattered values. Looks like 3NT just makes sense.

The problem with that type of thinking is very similar to a problem with thinking that 15-17 is 15-17 is 15-17. East could look at the problem more empathetically. First, East should think about pure expected tricks. If Opener, for instance, as a boring A-Q-sixth in clubs and out, hardly an opening hand, there are 8 tricks that are clear, plus legitimate chances for a ninth to be handed to you. Add in another quick trick, and 9 tricks are easy, and you only get to about 9 HCP from Opener. One more key honor gets you to 10 tricks, with an 11th probably somewhere, and you are still in the minimum range for the 2♣ rebid. Thus, the club K-10-x is a huge value, as is Opener's now known long suit.

Think, then, about what might slow down Opener. The likely candidate for a slowed auction will often be shortness in Responder's suit (as illustrated by the actual deal). If East assumes this possibility, he knows that his hand is rather pure opposite the heaviest hand types Opener could have, as only the heart Jack loses value, and the spade Queen in that scenario would likely carry a lot of weight. In the strongest scenario (conservative because short in hearts), East has a likely pure 4-cover-card hand. A 5-loser hand might well rebid 2♣ because of the empathized shortness in hearts.

Bluhmers and Empathetic Splinters have this common theory, by the way. There are times when a pure holding (Aces and spaces) opposite hypothesized shortness that would be seen as a reason for caution by partner merits cause for aggression by the empathetic partner.

Because of this, East's 3NT bid seems sloppy/practical. "Practical" if you want to blast to conceal (or get the lead) rather than explore remote slams and/or avoid a running side suit. "Sloppy" if you don't spot the issue.

Tactically, sloppy is dumb, but practical is fair. But, if your tactics convince you to not be practical, then East, IMO, is who should act, perhaps with an artificial GF and then 3♣ to set trumps. If you even hint at slam, West will force the issue.

[Winstonm]

I think we should be there. Clubs can be picked up around 57% of the time, and in the case of the 2-2 breaks, diamond ruff on 4th round is the 12th trick. With the 3-1 and 4-0 breaks that have no trump losers, there is the combined chance of spade King onside or diamonds 3-3.

Getting there means slowing down a bit, IMO. 1C-1H
2C-2D
3D-4C
4S-6C.

[mike777]

expect to miss this one, often.

2 suited minor hands in the range of 14-16 can be tough to bid. Now add in east with a 4333 shape hand, tough.

[Cyberyeti]

Scoring IMPs probably doesn't help, there's every chance at MPs if you go past 3N, you decide 5♣=/+1 is not going to be a good score v those in 3N+1/2 and bid 6 anyway without checking whether you're missing Q♣.

[PhilKing]

Auction looks completely normal.

[wanoff]

Not only is 3NT normal, but in the long run 6♣ is a loser.

[kgsmith]

Thanks all. Much appreciated, esp. the insightful comments by Ken Rexford (PS: I enjoy your books). To be honest, I (East) never gave a moment's thought to the possibility of a making slam after 1♣-1♥-2♣, and thought 3NT looked the "obvious" place to play. The idea of considering the purity of my hand opposite heart shortage in partner's is interesting indeed, and must provide a rationale for taking several auctions more slowly when the same is present. We might still not be candidates to reach 6♣, but you expose the shallowness (and sloppiness) of my thought process, which is really helpful.

[mikeh]

Maybe too late to add in my thoughts, but with all respect to KR's imaginativeness, his proposed 'solution' makes little sense absent specifics. He says that East ought to make an artificial gf and then bid 3♣. All well and good if opener is forced to bid no higher than 2N no matter what his hand.

However, if one bids, say, 2♦ (which would be the almost universal choice as a cheap force imo) then what on earth can opener do other than raise? 2N. altho showing the spade stop, is a gross distortion, not to mention leading to a silly contract if East were bidding real diamonds, such as Kx Axxxx AJ10xx x where over 2N, with a misfitting 12 count, 3N seems pretty obvious.

Ken is correct in saying that East ought to be aware that slam is 'possible' but, and this is the critical aspect of the hand, East has to be aware that slam is unlikely (it isn't exactly cold on the given hand and opener could have a worse hand) and that the partnership almost certainly lacks the tools and bidding space to get there intelligently when it is a good contract. There are times when settling for the practical bid is the intelligent thing to do, no matter how much we may wish, in the post-mortem, that we could have done better.

[Cyberyeti]

Without a gadget (and SAYC doesn't have one) I don't think there's a hope in hell of getting beyond 3N, and you don't really want to be in it anyway, although it's the sort of slam that I don't particularly mind being in.

We'd start

1♣-1♥
2♣-2♦(art inv+)
3♦(max, 4 ♦, 5+♣)-3♥(stop, no spade stop)
3♠ (at least something in spades, lead in NT may be better through this. prob Ax(x))-

and now its a decision for E, at IMPS I suspect even if he goes beyond 3N he will sign off in 5♣ on finding out no Q♣, as the 3145 version of this hand is in the frame.