[Phil]

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From an IMP speedball, so opponents are random and generally very bad,

1. ♦A, 2, 7, 8
2. ♦K, 9, 3, 4
3. ♣T....

[MrAce]

Phil, on 2015-July-09, 10:14, said:

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From an IMP speedball, so opponents are random and generally very bad,

1. ♦A, 2, 7, 8
2. ♦K, 9, 3, 4
3. ♣T....

I dont think we can manage the entries to play the suit for the optimum. Which would be to cash the A or K and then go dummy and run the T if we see nothing in case LHO has 9x. If see 9 from LHO do the same thing

So we play small to the 8 to play LHO for 9x or H9 or any 3-3? LHO may even hop from H9.

[alok c]

3.C 10 K - 4
4.S 8 To run.

[nige1]

Phil, on 2015-July-09, 10:14, said:

From an IMP speedball, so opponents are random and generally very bad.


Click next to see 1st 3 tricks.

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The main danger is that defenders are sober enough to cash 1♠, 2♥s, and 2 ♣s. Perhaps, your best hope of misdirection is to win with ♣J, finesse dummy's ♥T, and duck RHO's ♠ return.

[MrAce]

nige1, on 2015-July-09, 12:57, said:

The main danger is that defenders are sober enough to cash 1♠, 2♥s, and 2 ♣s.

Yes they have 5 tricks for sure. I'd put my money on them not cashing 2♥ on a speedball event + due to their expected level in general in those events, than playing for ♠ 9 vs QJ432.

[Phil]

Here was my crunch after I posted this:

Strategy 1 - Play AK and 3rd: 36% + 20% of 48 (QJ/Q9/J9 (dubs) is 9.6% --> 45.6%. (6 relevant cases). Note - if you Play Ace and 9 drops on left, it seems best to cross and tempt a cover, but play the K anyway.

Strategy 2 - Of the 4-2's: Running the T, running the 8

A. RHO is covering with QJ9x (3 cases) and can re-hook. Win 3.
B. RHO may or may not cover with QJxx (3 cases). If he doesn't you are golden. If he does, you probably lose to 9x off. Let's say he covers 50% of the time, so this give 1.5 effective cases.
C. RHO will cover from Q9xx (retaining a guess for declarer in case he has AKJ7x) (3 cases), but if you re-hook, you lose. No gains.
D. Unclear if RHO should cover from J9xx. Probably not. No gains.
E. You also get the benefit of Q9/J9/QJ onside, so 3 more.
F. Plus stiff 9 offside (frequency makes this about a "2/3" case).

total: 8 1/6 cases.

Strategy 3 - Running T (covered) and then King -

Loses in A
Wins 3 in B
Wins 3 in C
Wins 3 in E
WIns 2/3 in F

total: 9.6 cases

I can't see any real benefit of running the 8. Also, an intrafinesse of the 8 seems cute but loses on some 3-3's.

[MrAce]

Phil, on 2015-July-10, 10:46, said:

Strategy 2 - Of the 4-2's: Running the T, running the 8

A. RHO is covering with QJ9x (3 cases) and can re-hook. Win 3.
B. RHO may or may not cover with QJxx (3 cases). If he doesn't you are golden. If he does, you probably lose to 9x off. Let's say he covers 50% of the time, so this give 1.5 effective cases.
C. RHO will cover from Q9xx (retaining a guess for declarer in case he has AKJ7x) (3 cases), but if you re-hook, you lose. No gains.
D. Unclear if RHO should cover from J9xx. Probably not. No gains.
E. You also get the benefit of Q9/J9/QJ onside, so 3 more.
F. Plus stiff 9 offside (frequency makes this about a "2/3" case).

total: 8 1/6 cases.

Strategy 3 - Running T (covered) and then King -

Loses in A
Wins 3 in B
Wins 3 in C
Wins 3 in E
WIns 2/3 in F

total: 9.6 cases

I can't see any real benefit of running the 8. Also, an intrafinesse of the 8 seems cute but loses on some 3-3's.

You are missing something important imo. When you play for running T and if covered then running 8 does not win when RHO has QJ9x as you claim. He simply ducks 2nd ♠. Since you used both your KQ ♣ for dummy entries, now you have to use your last ♣ to come to hand and has no other entry to score 9 tricks even if they do not cash hearts right away. You make 2♦+3♠+3♣.

Same goes for B. I don't know why you think it is golden and I don't know how are you planning to make. All I see is, the lines you suggest makes EW see your exact shape. They already know your spades and have a pretty good idea about your diamonds. Showing them you also have 3 clubs next to them will not help you to steal the tricks. Just take first ♣ with J and play toward T8. You have much better chance since defense does not now yet who has ♣ A and how many clubs you have. They do not even know your exact spade holding yet.

[Phil]

I don't know how to discourage good players from staying off the heart shift here, but they would have already found a heart or diamond shift at T2 already. But assuming I've shown 5-4 in the pointeds, and I win the club on the board, I'm inferred to be 5=1=4=3, since I have to have the club A for 2N and I wouldn't be blocking clubs with Ax. I mean, this isn't a hard hand to defend, but non-thinking players are scared of opening up a suit like QTxxxx when they hold the AJ / KJ or even A or K empty.

I still like 2. I'm always overtaking the ♠8 so I'm not blocking the suit. It doesn't seem worth it to me to give up a lot of extra chances in the suit and try to mask my spade strength against opponents that can't work out the heart shift anyway.

FWIW, RHO was QJ AJ9 7xxx 8xxx (I think), so you need to play spades for four tricks in an optimal fashion.

[MrAce]

Phil, on 2015-July-10, 12:04, said:

I don't know how to discourage good players from staying off the heart shift here, but they would have already found a heart or diamond shift at T2 already. But assuming I've shown 5-4 in the pointeds, and I win the club on the board, I'm inferred to be 5=1=4=3, since I have to have the club A for 2N and I wouldn't be blocking clubs with Ax. I mean, this isn't a hard hand to defend, but non-thinking players are scared of opening up a suit like QTxxxx when they hold the AJ / KJ or even A or K empty.

If you take first club in dummy it is of course not hard hand to defend. Take it with J in hand, play a spade towards T8. This hides your actual number of ♣ cards, club honors. My point is, when you post the hand and mentioned that they are expected to be pretty bad players, your afford to play and make the game vs very specific but legit lay outs works less often than trying to steal 4 tricks in spades before you make it obvious even for bad players what to play. At least that is what I'd do.

Basically I'd try t o make it more often when spades are simply 3-3, by trying not to reveal much about my hand.