[1eyedjack]

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MP

1N opener was slightly bucking the system (15-17) and rates to be against the room (although among experienced robot tourney aficionados it is quite common to open 14 counts 1N, but as 14 counts go this one looks a bit sterile)

I went two down for -200 and about 7%. Going one down gets about 94%, the room typically scoring better than 100 in a Diamond partial.

Focus on handling the trump suit. I was conscious of the likelihood of an adverse Heart ruff but still thought that finessing against the Spade 9 was with the odds. Wrong?As the cards lie I do well by just playing trumps from the top. But is that resulting?

[gszes]

Think of it this way, IF there is a heart ruff playing to the nine is sort of a mirage since it only works when rho holds H9(x) but can fail huge when rho hold 9x or xx or Hx if they get a heart ruff. That is a huge number of possible really bad outcomes (-200) at MP.
If you look at the combined hands there is a really good chance the opps can make 3d so your main concern should be avoiding going down 2 and that means starting trumps from the top appears to be your best bet. MP and IMPS are completely different animals. At IMPS going for -200 against their 110+ is no big deal but if you can score up 2s making along with 110+ as the other table you have a small game swing so you only need to be right around 40% of the time to come out ahead in the long run. IMPS finesse for H9(x) MP go from the top in this instance.

[rhm]

gszes, on 2015-July-04, 08:02, said:

Think of it this way, IF there is a heart ruff playing to the nine is sort of a mirage since it only works when rho holds H9(x)

Sorry I do not get this.
For me finessing gains only if the ♠8 wins the first trump trick, that is RHO has specifically ♠KQ96 or ♠KQ92 or possibly ♠KQ962.
The latter is extremely unlikely given that West would not let you play 2♠ without interfering with a void in spades and ♦AK and favorable vulnerability.
It is also unlikely that he would do that with a small singleton spade.
Otherwise assuming West can top the ♠8 and a heart ruff threatens the finesse never gains, since West will give East a ruff or West has ♠KQ9x.
The finesse can at best break even, but loses to many 3-2 breaks: All layouts, where East has 2 trumps, whether ♠62 or ♠Hx or ♠9x.
It also losses when West has a singleton ♠9.

Rainer Herrmann

[bigbenvic]

I don't think it's a very good line, East passed in first seat so the chances of holding KQ of trumps is almost nil as they would have opened.

Rise Ace and play another and hope for 3-2 or stiff honour in west's hand. If an honour pops on the left you can cross with a club and lead towards the J8 to pick up the break.

[1eyedjack]

Thanks all

Bigbenvic, I was not placing East With KQ, I was placing him with the 9. If the 8 flushes out an honour then I have a finesse against the other honour with chances to make the contract. If they have a heart ruff in the hand with the long trump suit I have lost nothing by conceding the ruff.

But all that said, I have come around to the other responders remarks.

[gszes]

rhm, on 2015-July-04, 23:51, said:

Sorry I do not get this.
For me finessing gains only if the ♠8 wins the first trump trick, that is RHO has specifically ♠KQ96 or ♠KQ92 or possibly ♠KQ962.
The latter is extremely unlikely given that West would not let you play 2♠ without interfering with a void in spades and ♦AK and favorable vulnerability.
It is also unlikely that he would do that with a small singleton spade.
Otherwise assuming West can top the ♠8 and a heart ruff threatens the finesse never gains, since West will give East a ruff or West has ♠KQ9x.
The finesse can at best break even, but loses to many 3-2 breaks: All layouts, where East has 2 trumps, whether ♠62 or ♠Hx or ♠9x.
It also losses when West has a singleton ♠9.

Rainer Herrmann

The overall point I was trying to make was at MP play the ace and another spade at IMPS (where the risk of going down 2 tiny by comparison) trying to make 2s is not such a bad proposition--THEN playing toward the 8 is reasonable.