[lamford]

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This was a key hand from the fine win by Hinden-Osborne, Cooke-Allerton in the Spring Fours final. Apologies if you have seen it before, and your comments will still be welcome. You elect not to overcall 1S, and the opponents are soon in 3NT. You lead the ace of spades, partner playing the 8, reverse attitude in theory, and declarer plays the jack. Over to you.

[billw55]

Auction seems to indicate that declarer has 7-8 cashing clubs. I don't want to give him his remaining trick(s) too easily, so I will exit a club and make him do his own work. Specifically, the ♣T in case partner has ♣Jxxx.

Admit I would overcall 1♠ 100%. Although in this case it might go p-p-double-p-p-trouble.

[MrAce]

I will cash K of ♠ to see whether pd's 8 ws stiff or from doubleton. If from doubleton, 8 should not be about spades, seeing dummy. (Although I am not very strong on that, in this auction it is normal to lead A from Ax(x). Then I will play small ♥ trying to find pd with KJx(x) ♥ or Jxxx ♥ + ♦ A. Watching the discard by declarer carefully on 2nd ♠

Hoping to find declarer with either of

J
Qxx
KJ(x)
AKQJ9x(x)


J
KQx
KJx
AKQJ9xx

On first one club exit seems to work as well. On 2nd hand I think we need to play small ♥ at T3

[wanoff]

Will also take the ♠K and if partner follows I would say he prefers hearts to diamonds.
That's not to say he doesn't have a diamond card though, so I'd go passive with the ♣10.
If however he discards, and either discourages diamonds or encourages hearts, I will underlead the heart. Otherwise a club.

Expecting to find declarer with

J(x) Kx(x) Ax AKQJxxx or similar

[benlessard]

Quote

8 should not be about spades, seeing dummy. (Although I am not very strong on that, in this auction it is normal to lead A from Ax(x)

IMO its clear enough that the 8 is SP or a stiff.

Both you and your partner have a quasi count of the S here. Declarer is going to have 2S under 20% imo. So partner would need to be asleep to not give a Sp here.

If declarer make the standard encourage in H falsecard and the contract is not cold its because partner got enough in D to stop dummy from getting in so i dont think there is any risk to cash the 2nd S.

[MrAce]

wanoff, on 2015-May-11, 16:29, said:

Expecting to find declarer with

J(x) Kx(x) Ax AKQJxxx or similar

This assumes partner preferred hearts to diamonds with /KJxx ♦ and QJxx ♥. Why would he do that? It is wrong when E has ♦ A. It is wrong when E has ♥A. It is even wrong when E has ♥K because then declarer will have 9 tricks. (unless E also holds ♦A, then which makes ♦ pref work as well)

[gnasher]

Paul, can you tell us what happens when we cash the second spade?

[rhm]

I do not really see anything but a low heart.
Declarer's clubs need not be solid, in fact I consider that unlikely.
Partner could have ♣Qxx, in which case a club switch would be deadly for the defense.
It is also not clear why declarer could not have ♦ AKx, in which case cashing the second spade would also be deadly if partner has the queen of clubs.
A low heart is only an issue, if declarer has precisely eight solid tricks in the minors and needs that we break the hearts.
I bet against the last condition.
To beat this contract partner needs to get in and we need very likely two heart tricks.
But playing partner specifically for an entry in diamonds plus heart queen and jack and declarer for 8 solid minor suit tricks is possible but remote.
Even if partner has a diamond entry we might need to develop a second heart trick before declarer gets a diamond trick, declarer having ♥KJx or ♥KQx.
How is partner supposed to know with the diamond ace (or ♦KJ) and either the heart queen or jack (but not both) to signal hearts?
From his perspective even if he has the diamond ace and the heart queen and jack, a heart switch could be right if we had the king and declarer the heart ace.

Rainer Herrmannto

[lamford]

gnasher, on 2015-May-12, 01:46, said:

Paul, can you tell us what happens when we cash the second spade?

If you cash the second spade, partner will follow and declarer will discard a small club. The danger of cashing the second spade is that declarer may have ♦AKx, and I think you expect declarer to have a stiff J in spades anyway for the traditional meaning of 3NT showing short spades.

So far, I am convinced by Rainer's arguments, which appear to cater for most layouts. I think partner's spade card should distinguish as best he can between his red holdings.

[MrAce]

lamford, on 2015-May-12, 03:35, said:

If you cash the second spade, partner will follow and declarer will discard a small club. The danger of cashing the second spade is that declarer may have ♦AKx, and I think you expect declarer to have a stiff J in spades anyway for the traditional meaning of 3NT showing short spades.

So far, I am convinced by Rainer's arguments, which appear to cater for most layouts. I think partner's spade card should distinguish as best he can between his red holdings.

Obviously those of us who played 2nd ♠ assumed the clubs to be solid. A problem that could be easily solved at the table by simply asking opponents. What is their suit requirement for this bid. Solid? Semi solid? no suit requirement at all and just showing a 6+ clubs and more than 3♣ values?

Say declarer has Jx KJ Ax AKQJxxx, ♦ would have defeated.

[lamford]

MrAce, on 2015-May-12, 05:23, said:

Obviously those of us who played 2nd ♠ assumed the clubs to be solid. A problem that could be easily solved at the table by simply asking opponents. What is their suit requirement for this bid. Solid? Semi solid? no suit requirement at all and just showing a 6+ clubs and more than 3♣ values?

Say declarer has Jx KJ Ax AKQJxxx, ♦ would have defeated.

I think if you asked you would be told, "To play, with short spades and good clubs; no other specific agreement."

[Aardv]

If declarer has:

J KJx AK AKJxxxx we can do anything except switch to clubs (declarer will get the eventual heart guess right)

J KJx AK AKQxxxx simplest is to cash a spade, squeezing him. Or we can switch to ♥10.

J KQJ AJ AKQxxxx we can lead anything except for a small spade or ♥10 (which we need as a squeeze menace in some lines)

J KQx AJx AKJxxx we have to switch to a club or ♥10

J KQx AKx KQJ8xx a diamond, ♥7, or ♣10 are ok.

J KQx AKx KQJ9xx we have to switch to ♥7

If partner has given suit preference here, you can rule out the third and fourth holdings.

[FrancesHinden]

I'd expect declarer to get any eventual heart guess wrong, because he would think that AK9xx Axx would have overcalled...

[MrAce]

I found the original hand in vugraph archives now.
Apparently I was wrong to assume declarer has solid clubs.

Regardless, this is a very good problem imo.

[benlessard]

"The danger of cashing the second spade is that declarer may have ♦AKx"

he made 5D+1H+2S+1C ? basically if the D run and the clubs are AKQ or KQJ cashing the S change nothing.

So its only when opener got AQ or AK in clubs just one stopper in H and AKx of D and only 1S. Not that a big target imo.

If i knew my opps will always have a stiff in S than i wouldnt cash my 2nd spades otherwise cashing look safe enough. I expect partner to have the little spade and ill switch low H and hope for the best. I like my odds.

[MrAce]

benlessard, on 2015-May-12, 20:09, said:

"The danger of cashing the second spade is that declarer may have ♦AKx"

he made 5D+1H+2S+1C ? basically if the D run and the clubs are AKQ or KQJ cashing the S change nothing.

So its only when opener got AQ or AK in clubs just one stopper in H and AKx of D and only 1S. Not that a big target imo.

If i knew my opps will always have a stiff in S than i wouldnt cash my 2nd spades otherwise cashing look safe enough. I expect partner to have the little spade and ill switch low H and hope for the best. I like my odds.

You are wrong.
Assume declarer has KQJ ♣, and KQ ♥.
He runs 5 diamonds and you are in bad position

Last 5 cards u will need to hold 3 spades + ♥ A + ♣x then he will play a ♥ and knock your A (remember ♥ J knocked his Q at T3)
If you try to hold Ax ♥ + 3 spades, he can simply end play you.

[benlessard]

Good catch.

[lamford]

benlessard, on 2015-May-12, 20:09, said:

"The danger of cashing the second spade is that declarer may have ♦AKx"

he made 5D+1H+2S+1C ? basically if the D run and the clubs are AKQ or KQJ cashing the S change nothing.

So its only when opener got AQ or AK in clubs just one stopper in H and AKx of D and only 1S. Not that a big target imo.

If i knew my opps will always have a stiff in S than i wouldnt cash my 2nd spades otherwise cashing look safe enough. I expect partner to have the little spade and ill switch low H and hope for the best. I like my odds.

On the actual layout, which was ♠J ♥KQx ♦AKx ♣KQJ8xx for declarer, cashing the second spade is not fatal, provided you continue with a low heart, but it would be if you change declarer's clubs to AQJxxx. I think Aardv produces a good analysis, and Rainer is right that a low heart is best. Change the clubs to KQJ9xx and a low heart still works, but a passive diamond now fails. There is no way, apart from peeking, of telling how solid declarer's clubs are. The declarer, Jon Cooke, is also a professional poker player, and could have a range of hands for his action, and second guessing him is a bad idea!

[Aardv]

FrancesHinden, on 2015-May-12, 14:01, said:

I'd expect declarer to get any eventual heart guess wrong, because he would think that AK9xx Axx would have overcalled...

Three reasons why I think he would get it right after a club switch with the hand I was talking about - J KJx AK AKJxxxx
i) It's inconceivable that you (I mean the defender) wouldn't switch to a heart from Qxx, beating him trivially.
ii) Declarer will cash his five minor suit winners, then exit with a club, and partner will give him the heart guess. Declarer won't know about your fifth spade.
iii) At the end of the previous hand, your partner (I am told) had remonstrated vigorously with you, which might explain any apparent reticence on your part in the bidding of this one.

lamford, on 2015-May-13, 05:13, said:

On the actual layout, which was ♠J ♥KQx ♦AKx ♣KQJ8xx for declarer, cashing the second spade is not fatal, provided you continue with a low heart,...

I'm not sure about that: declarer would have every reason to suspect that he'd be swiftly one off if he played a club, so he'd run the diamonds instead, and your hand would be squashed - you have to keep all your spades, so either bare the ace of hearts or throw both clubs. Declarer makes if he guesses which.

[benlessard]

Quote

Declarer makes if he guesses which

When you discard the T of H it wont be too tough I think.

Quote

actual layout, which was ♠J ♥KQx ♦AKx ♣KQJ8xx

Can we have a link ? What happened other than the strip squeeeze ?

i cant really see east swtiching D or playing the Ace or T of H here and declarer should be able to see the endplay rather than trying to sneak a club.