[PhantomSac]

rhm, on 2015-April-29, 03:03, said:

I had the feeling this slam is not cold, but a good one.

Well that is enough for me. Sometimes hands like these look like a good slam but they are not. If you put a gun to my head i would have guessed it was def over 50 but def below 60, so 72 was a surprising number. Often times these kinds of things can be surprising to a human brain though.

FWIW I generally think of missing a slam >60 or bidding a slam <40 as a disaster. Missing a slam that is 50-55 is w/e as is bidding one 45-50. 55-60 and 40-45 are in the middle. So apparently missing this one would be very bad by my scale which is enough for me No real point, sometimes you don't know if a slam is good or not, but better bidders and better partnerships with better agreements generally have an edge when they decide to bid slam or not bid a slam. It's good to know when or if a slam is good or not if you know your partners hand!

[lamford]

rhm, on 2015-April-29, 02:38, said:

A simple simulation shows that slam makes about 72% of the time.
Yes I know that is double dummy, which works both ways but favors slightly declarer at the slam level.

I was interested in that, as someone who often does simple simulations, and I had 73% for mine on the same hands. I am not sure that DD favours declarer, in that the defence get the first shot, and each player can see 26 cards in single dummy whereas they can see 52 in DD. Declarer gains with two-way guesses, endplays, squeezes etc, but the defence gains a great deal on the opening lead.

On the auction, I would bid 1H-1S-3C (artificial, either nat FG or big spade raise) - 3D (which)-3S (FG spade raise)-4C-4D-4S and now North might move on, although he has shown a hand too good to raise 1S to 4S. I would not expect to get there.

[lycier]

dboxley, on 2015-April-27, 16:49, said:

---

IMPS

I think north is a decent hand only with 4 loser,so opening 2c is feasible,it goes :

---

If open 1♥,maybe it is difficult to reach slam.

[PhantomSac]

lamford, on 2015-April-29, 06:05, said:

On the auction, I would bid 1H-1S-3C (artificial, either nat FG or big spade raise) - 3D (which)-3S (FG spade raise)

Seems like one of the worst conventions ever, what do you do with 3514 etc type hands?

[nate_m]

PhantomSac, on 2015-April-29, 19:14, said:

Seems like one of the worst conventions ever, what do you do with 3514 etc type hands?

If you have 3514, just tank before you bid 3S.

[Cyberyeti]

PhantomSac, on 2015-April-29, 19:14, said:

Seems like one of the worst conventions ever, what do you do with 3514 etc type hands?

You play a 2♣ rebid as "never passed with a real response".

[benlessard]

I think a DD sim here is wrong by at least 10%. It will pull the right amount of trumps and will establish the right round suit. I did forget RHO having KQ of clubs.

[dboxley]

I thought the opener was a little too good for a 4S rebid but the alternatives weren't great. 3D followed by 4S, which is what I bid, is about right on strength but implies club shortness, not to mention that it shows a better suit ().. Maybe a 4D splinter is better but it is still an underbid. The keys to the hand were responder's fifth spade and 1st round club control.