[WGF_Flame]

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Held this yesterday,
My thought were, on mp its clear 3NT, but it was imp.
What would you bid ?

[Cyberyeti]

This is a pretty tight decision even at MPs, the issue with 3N is that you can easily find opener with a balanced hand 4-4 in the minors, say xx, Axx, KJxx, AQ10x and lose 4 clubs and a heart while opposite KQxxxxx, QJx, x, xx 4♠ was easy, at MPs it's still not clear as there are hands with partner having A♥ or Q♥ and a stiff club where 4♠ makes exactly or +1, but losing 4 club tricks is a disaster in 3N.

You're pretty much on a guess, if partner has 2 or 3 diamonds and a club honour and/or the ♦J, 3N may well be the spot.

The problem with 3N is that partner doesn't know if you are planning to use his spades as anything more than a stop while you run 7 or 8 clubs, so won't remove it when it's right.

I suspect I do bid 3N, but I don't like it much and 4♠ could easily be right.

[rhm]

3NT for me and I do not consider it close.
As Kit Woolsey points out time and again the urge for bidding 3NT at IMPs should be even stronger.
You need to take 2 tricks more at IMPs before 4♠ can show a big profit.
Those layouts exist, but there are many more where you will make at least as many tricks at notrumps than in a trump contract, in particular single dummy.
If you consider 3NT too risky you should pass.

Rainer Herrmann

[gnasher]

What Rainer said.

[WellSpyder]

A bit surprising not to see pass as one of the options in the poll. Perhaps I'll try my hand at answering Nigel style (but without quite so much of his innate generosity):
3N = 10; Pass = 8; 4♠ = 5

[lackeman]

Counting the tricks! So if w have Kxxxxxx then it is 8 tricks. Partner often contributes to one more. Seldom more!
In MP not many (in My experience) most Will bid 4 sp. So a pass Will probably give u i think 70-95%. In NT we probably home with d lead(if d is lead. Dont think opner lead d so often ur not from DK. Probably not from ha either. So probably a cl lead. The opener Will probably have 2 honor in sekvence also, indicating he Will probably lead clubs.
Then it depends on what pd have beside the s. Often i think 3N Will be made so in IMP i think it is best. But still a pass (ie when 3N is home) Will generate a good score! And when not ofcause a top.
This is based on that i think 4sp is down.(didnt se the zones here, in red/red, or red/green the odds for a game from our side increase). In opposit if we are green partner can have for ex qxxxxxx or kqxxxx. Then for me it is pass in IMP as well as MP.

[steve2005]

Need p with Hx in ♣ for 3N. If p short in ♣ I don't see 10 tricks with the red suits offside probably. So it 3N for me.

[gszes]

There is zero rational reason to assume p has or does not have any power on the side. There is zero rational way to tell if/where partner is short. That means we can only logically proceed from trick taking potential from a reasonable minimum 3s bid and proceed from there. If I have a sound bidding partner I will bid 3n which lho cannot set off the top so it will almost never be x. With a partner that likes to stray I would avoid 3n and most likely just pass. The downside of too much variability in preempts is a price that one must be willing to pay (when partner has a hand like this and passes from fear).

[mikeh]

What Andy said, but with some extra comment.

I think it is nuts to bid 4♠. We will need magic cards to score 10 tricks in spades.

Meanwhile, they may give us the 9th trick on the opening lead in notrump, by leading a red suit.

While 3N may fail, because they can usually beat us with a club lead, there is no reason to assume that they will find that lead, and meanwhile the imp odds are very strongly in favour of bidding the game.

In fact, contrary to what I think the OP was suggesting, I think that pass is far more palatable at mps than at imps. I wouldn't pass at either form of scoring, since I expect 3N to make the same tricks, or more, than 3♠. It isn't as tho 3♠ is known to be cold, altho it is a string favourite.

[WGF_Flame]

thank for the volting and answers,
in reality 3nt fail and 4sp made.
I am happy to see that my choice to bid 3nt wasnt incorrect.

[nekthen]

 WGF_Flame, on 2015-March-17, 18:44, said:

thank for the volting and answers,
in reality 3nt fail and 4sp made.
I am happy to see that my choice to bid 3nt wasnt incorrect.

Can we now see whole hand?

[fourdad]

While I agree that PASS Should be an option in the poll, (i prefer lighter preempts), with no way to ascertain where partner is short I would be hard pressed to ignore a 10 card fit. Hence I bid 4♠.
To me, 3NT is playing "top or bottom" bridge.

[NickRW]

 fourdad, on 2015-March-18, 07:12, said:

While I agree that PASS Should be an option in the poll, (i prefer lighter preempts), with no way to ascertain where partner is short I would be hard pressed to ignore a 10 card fit. Hence I bid 4♠.
To me, 3NT is playing "top or bottom" bridge.

Well, fair comment, sort of. However, you find that better players will gamble on a top or bottom and then be right well over 50% of the time.

Sometimes (as here) the opps (or partner) put you in a position where you have to make a decision based on little information (here pass, 3NT or 4S). All could be right. All could be wrong.

[zillahandp]

4s p will be short in hts prob not close my view expect d lead so not too concerned about lho on lead rho will lead club or ht and if spades dont behave 3nt a problem wheras 4s still decent chances with end play on rho ie opener

[detritus68]

3NT most likely game, for 4♠ I need special cards, 3NT either fitting cards (Club H) from partner or lucky lead - LHO will probably have a very nasty opening lead...

[wank]

Clear 3n imo

[masonbarge]

 rhm, on 2015-March-17, 07:35, said:

3NT for me and I do not consider it close.
As Kit Woolsey points out time and again the urge for bidding 3NT at IMPs should be even stronger.
You need to take 2 tricks more at IMPs before 4♠ can show a big profit.
Those layouts exist, but there are many more where you will make at least as many tricks at notrumps than in a trump contract, in particular single dummy.
If you consider 3NT too risky you should pass.

Rainer Herrmann

The problem with 3NT is not winners or overtricks, it's the clubs. Opponents have all the transportation they need unless you get very lucky.

I do agree that pass is a consideration, even at IMPs. I don't think 3NT is automatic at MP, either, when you think of more than half the field bidding 3NT and a lot of the rest in 4S. It is a bit tops-and-bottoms but a pass is a good shoot for a top.

[masonbarge]

 detritus68, on 2015-March-18, 13:49, said:

3NT most likely game, for 4♠ I need special cards, 3NT either fitting cards (Club H) from partner or lucky lead - LHO will probably have a very nasty opening lead...

There's a good chance he will squirm, but I'll tell you two suits he's not going to lead (if he's good).

With something like ♣AQx.. and ♥AQx.. doesn't he have to lay down one of the Aces?

[sir john]

I would bid 3 NT

[MrAce]

3 NT is obvious to me.