[DavidChinn]

---

IMPs; NV vs. Vul; Silent Opps
Opening lead a small diamond
Would 6H or 6NT more likely succeed?

[masonbarge]

Vul or non-Vul?

The only difference I can see is that, at No Trump, in the rare case that RHO shows out on the first or second heart lead, you can bring home the bacon just over half the time with a spade finesse. So that's about a 4% advantage, off the top of my head.

But at NT, when the heart finesse fails with hearts 3-2, you go down at least 2 or 3. I don't want to calculate the difference in IMPs.

[akwoo]

Hmm - two interesting play problems. I think 6♥ is more likely to make, but at MPs in a strong field, I'd want to be in 6N.

Note that in neither contract do you want to take a finesse!

At 6♥:

Spoiler

Win the first trick, draw two trumps. Drop a diamond on the third club. Makes if both hearts and clubs split 3-2, or the long hearts are with the long clubs, plus assorted other chances.

At 6N:

Spoiler

Duck the first trick. Cash the diamond, two hearts, the A♠, and the 6 clubs, ending with singleton heart and small spade in dummy, and KJ♠ in hand. Makes if either major queen is doubleton or if the spade queen is with the long hearts.

[billw55]

I think I would rather play 6NT. I have no use for ruffs in the north hand - clubs will take care off all my pointy suit losers anyway. Also ♥QTxx with west is not as bad; I can still hook the spade for the 12th trick.

[Stephen Tu]

I think 6H is better at IMPS.

Let's take a look at the relevant cases:
hearts 3-2, Q not dropping: (40.69%)
6H: need long hearts to have 2+ clubs, about 81% or so, so 33.17%
6nt: need squeeze, SQ with long heart or singleton/doubleton Q with short heart, this is about 51.3%, so 20.87%.
edge to 6h in this case about 12.3%

hearts 4-1, Q stiff on the right (so can't pick up the suit): 2.83%
6nt: you are done
6H: need player to have 2+ clubs, about 74.2% a priori (a bit better this in practice since no stiff club lead), but let's give 6nt the whole edge of 0.73% here

hearts 4-1, RHO has 4 to the Q: 11.30%
6nt: squeeze is about 45% so 5.09%
6h: need RHO have 2+ clubs, 74.2%, so 8.38%
edge here to 6h, about 3.29%

hearts 4-1, LHO has 4 to the QT: 8.48%
6H: you are down
6nt: finesse east for spade unless east shows out on spades (better than squeeze), 58.92%
edge here to 6nt, about 5%

hearts 4-1, LHO has 4 to Q but not T, 2.83%
6nt: finesse still 58.92% so 1.67%
6H: need LHO to have 3+ clubs, about 35% (slightly better than finessing in spades and hoping LHO has 3+ spades). 0.99%
edge to 6nt of .68%

hearts 5-0, LHO has 5: 1.96%
6H: you are down
6nt: finesse east spade, ~63.88%
edge 6nt of 1.25%

hearts 5-0, RHO has 5: 1.96%
6H: can make double dummy in some cases but I think down in practice
6nt: you've made

so I get total edge to 6H of:
12.3-0.73+3.29-5-.68-1.25-1.96 = 5.97%

Edit: bonehead error on last section

[DavidChinn]

Thanks for the suggested lines of play and analyses.

David

[akwoo]

Never mind - I was wrong.

[akwoo]

Also, when hearts are 4-1 with LHO, there are club splits which will make the squeeze better than the spade finesse. Since you get to decide after finding out the club split, the odds are slightly better for NT. (Again this isn't enough to affect the answer, and I'm really making tiny little quibbles at this point.)

[1eyedjack]

If you can find a route to either contract that is more likely to inhibit a Diamond lead, that would be more influential as to which is the better contract than any analysis of the lie of the cards.

[billw55]

As an aside, shouldn't 6♣ also be an option at IMPs?

[gszes]

6NT

Spoiler

The idea in 6N is to duck trick 1 in order to rectify the count for a squeeze.
the end position imagined after playing off the top 2 hearts and running all of the
clubs and the dia ace is:

A4 2 void void
KJ7 void void void

Trick 11 we cash the spade ace and lead the spade 4---if rho began with the top heart and
the spade Q the Q will show up at trick 12. Only if rho plays small to trick 12 do we have
to decide to play for the drop of the spade Q (lho was squeezed) or take the spade finesse.

In 6Nt we are not at the mercy of how hearts break. There is never any risk of a huge minus since
we do not have to make a final decision until trick 12.

[Zelandakh]

1eyedjack, on 2015-February-03, 01:51, said:

If you can find a route to either contract that is more likely to inhibit a Diamond lead, that would be more influential as to which is the better contract than any analysis of the lie of the cards.

Looking up the hand it sppears that North was dealer and the choice is between 6♣ or 6NT by North and 6♥ by South. In 6♥ it is unlikely that a diamond would have been led. The OP was dealer and, not surprisingly for N/B, went down in 6NT after missing the squeeze. 6♣ was not an option because North chose to rebid 1NT and South went directly to 6 without passing Go, thus putting their partner in jail and spawning this $200 question!

[kuhchung]

Is now a good time to point out that this doesn't belong in the N/B forum?

[MrAce]

kuhchung, on 2015-February-06, 12:21, said:

Is now a good time to point out that this doesn't belong in the N/B forum?

Gatekeeper!

[kuhchung]

I wouldn't want to start a flame war about who said who was a novice, and who never made that claim.

[1eyedjack]

Haha I doubt that anyone really cares (incl N/B players). It was just a nice question.

[99_lvl]

Stephen Tu, on 2015-February-02, 17:22, said:

I think 6H is better at IMPS.

Let's take a look at the relevant cases:
hearts 3-2, Q not dropping: (40.69%)
6H: need long hearts to have 2+ clubs, about 81% or so, so 33.17%
6nt: need squeeze, SQ with long heart or singleton/doubleton Q with short heart, this is about 51.3%, so 20.87%.
edge to 6h in this case about 12.3%

hearts 4-1, Q stiff on the right (so can't pick up the suit): 2.83%
6nt: you are done
6H: need player to have 2+ clubs, about 74.2% a priori (a bit better this in practice since no stiff club lead), but let's give 6nt the whole edge of 0.73% here

hearts 4-1, RHO has 4 to the Q: 11.30%
6nt: squeeze is about 45% so 5.09%
6h: need RHO have 2+ clubs, 74.2%, so 8.38%
edge here to 6h, about 3.29%

hearts 4-1, LHO has 4 to the QT: 8.48%
6H: you are down
6nt: finesse east for spade unless east shows out on spades (better than squeeze), 58.92%
edge here to 6nt, about 5%

hearts 4-1, LHO has 4 to Q but not T, 2.83%
6nt: finesse still 58.92% so 1.67%
6H: need LHO to have 3+ clubs, about 35% (slightly better than finessing in spades and hoping LHO has 3+ spades). 0.99%
edge to 6nt of .68%

hearts 5-0, LHO has 5: 1.96%
6H: you are down
6nt: finesse east spade, ~63.88%
edge 6nt of 1.25%

hearts 5-0, RHO has 5: 1.96%
6H: can make double dummy in some cases but I think down in practice
6nt: you've made

so I get total edge to 6H of:
12.3-0.73+3.29-5-.68-1.25-1.96 = 5.97%

Edit: bonehead error on last section

OMG, how do you do this?

[Vampyr]

99_lvl, on 2015-May-14, 15:00, said:

OMG, how do you do this?

Suit distributions can be looked up. (Stephen Tu, I am not suggesting that you don't know them by heart). The rest is thoughtful analysis.